Right before Spring Training started for the 2025 season, the Orioles signed two veteran outfielders to “prove-it” deals. One of them went on to become a vital part of the lineup before being moved at
the deadline in the Orioles’ fire sale. The other one was Dylan Carlson.
In many ways, Carlson lived up to the expectations of most Orioles fans at the time of his signing because no one expected much from him. The longtime St. Louis Cardinal came to Baltimore after 37-game stint with the Rays to end the 2024 season. The former first-round pick always presented more potential than product with the Cardinals, constantly chasing the promise that saw him put up 3.2 bWAR in his rookie season, but only 1.3 bWAR combined over his next 2.5 seasons.
The appeal of Carlson was far from impossible to understand. The 26-year-old is a switch-hitter who can play all three outfield positions while providing gap-to-gap power. Under Mike Elias, the Orioles have made a habit of buying low on players to try to find some hidden gems. Sometimes those lottery tickets turn into Ryan O’Hearn or Ramón Laureano. Other times, the Orioles get what they pay for.
When he joined the O’s this past January, he was nearly four years removed from being a productive MLB player and more than a year removed from being at least replacement level. Add to that the five IL trips between 2022 and 2024, and the Orioles were certainly buying damaged goods.
Carlson started the 2025 season in Tripe-A, and bounced back and forth between the big leagues and Norfolk thanks to injuries to Colton Cowser and Tyler O’Neill. Carlson went 1-for-2 with a walk and a run in his Orioles debut on March 31st. He’d then go 0-for-4 in an April 3rd loss to the Red Sox and wouldn’t get another at-bat in black and orange until April 26th. Starting with that 0-for on April 3rd and ending with an 8th inning single on May 20th, Carlson suffered through a 0-for-18 stretch.
The lottery ticket the Orioles bought when the brought in Carlson seemed to start to pay off when he finally found a regular roll in the lineup. Between May 24th and July 1st, the switch-hitting outfielder started 27 of the Orioles 35 games, and slashed .281/.312/.461 while launching four homers and collecting 10 RBIs. He was by no means in Turn and Burn O’Hearn territory when it came to Orioles reclamantion projects, but he was at least a productive member of the lineup for that month.
The O’s would reward that productive stretch with a demotion back to Triple-A on July 3rd once Tyler O’Neill had fully recovered from a shoulder injury. Carlson would remain at Norfolk for the better part of three weeks and returned to the big league roster at the end of July.
The demotion either shook his confidence or simply got him out of the grove he found as an everyday player. Carlson gradually regained his starting spot after the trades of Laureano, O’Hearn and Cedric Mullins, but never regained the same level of production. Over the next month after his recall, he hit .179 across 28 games while struggling to provide much more than healthy body for the decimated Orioles’ lineup.
The promotion of prospects Jeremiah Jackson and Dylan Beavers cut into Carlson’s playing time, as the veteran outfielder only received 28 at-bats across the last month of the season. He did little to earn more chances from interim manager Tony Mansolino, as he only managed four hits in those 28 chances (a .143 average) and provided most of his value as a late-inning defensive replacement.
Carlson finished the season with a slash line of .203/.278/.336 and put up six homeruns, 20 RBIs, nine doubles, a triple, 17 runs and three stolen bases in 217 at-bats. His 2025 was certainly an improvement over his 2024 season, but only just. He went from being a -1.2 bWAR player last year for the Cardinals and Rays to being a -0.7 bWAR this year with the O’s. In a somewhat ironic turn of events, his most memorable moment as an Oriole came against the Cardinals, as his three-run homer on May 26th proved to be the winning hit in the O’s 5-2 win over the Red Birds.
The veteran outfielder still has one year of arbitration eligibility, so it’s not completely out of the question that the Orioles could bring him back as a depth outfielder to keep stashed at Triple-A. With a Cowser, O’Neill, Jackson and Beavers all currently ahead of Carlson on the outfield pecking order (and potential free agent reinforcement in the cards), it will be hard for this reclamation prospect to reclaim a similar role in 2026.
