The San Francisco Giants are in town this weekend, and that means Luis Arráez is, too.
Arráez was one of the more divisive names connected to the Colorado Rockies this winter. Plenty of fans wanted him. Plenty of others argued against it. He did not bring much power, the defensive fit was questionable, and the Rockies were already sorting through younger, more flexible infield options.
By the time Arráez signed with the Giants, Colorado had already chosen a different infield path with Edouard Julien,
T.J. Rumfield and Willi Castro.
That was the shape of the bet: more control, more versatility and more players to evaluate instead of Arráez’s higher offensive floor. It has not been a total miss. Rumfield has been one of the better developments on the roster at 0.8 fWAR, and Castro has been solid enough at 0.2 fWAR. Julien has struggled, though, sitting at -0.8 fWAR.
The Rockies’ side of that bet has been mixed. Arráez’s side has been much cleaner.
Through 53 games with San Francisco, Arráez has looked like himself: a .325/.366/.432 line, a .350 wOBA, 127 wRC+, 8.0% whiff rate, 3.9% strikeout rate and 93rd-percentile expected batting average. He still does not hit the ball especially hard. He still does not barrel the ball. He is not suddenly a slugger hiding in a contact hitter’s body.
He is the same impossible-to-strike-out hitter he has always been, which is exactly what made him appealing for a Rockies lineup that has often needed more professional at-bats.
The twist is the glove. A month ago, FanGraphs was already asking whether Arráez had suddenly become good at second base after years of shaky defensive metrics. That question has not gone away. If anything, it has become harder to dismiss. Arráez is still grading as one of the best second basemen in baseball by Outs Above Average, with 9 OAA — 99th percentile by Statcast.
Defensive metrics can be noisy, and some of that improvement may be tied to positioning or team context. But this is no longer a few-week blip. Arráez has basically been the same hitter while the weakest part of his profile has flipped from liability to asset.
The easiest way to talk yourself out of Arráez was to ask how much the glove would give back. That argument looks weaker now, and his 2.3 fWAR would comfortably lead the Rockies.
That last part is what sent me down the alternate-reality path. The Rockies’ current fWAR leader is Mickey Moniak at 1.4, a previous-regime flyer who has blossomed into one of the best stories of the season. In another timeline, there are a few players who could have been wearing purple and would be sitting above him on the fWAR leaderboard.
The usual caveats apply. Production does not transfer cleanly from one team, ballpark, or development environment to another, and this is not a verdict on every decision. It is just a look at different kinds of what-ifs: the veteran pitcher, the unexplored market, the draft re-do, and the franchise icon who already wore purple.
The pitcher what-if
Nick Martinez was a real offseason name around the Rockies, not just a generic veteran arm. Jim Bowden linked Martinez to Colorado, and the fit made sense: starter depth, long-relief flexibility, and maybe a trade chip if things went well.
The profile fit, too. Martinez works with a broad six-pitch mix — sinker, changeup, cutter, four-seamer, curveball and slider — which gave him the kind of multiple-look veteran approach the Rockies seemed to be targeting. He has also excelled at limiting hard contact, which matters for any pitcher but especially for one being imagined at Coors Field.
The Rockies did address that bucket by signing Tomoyuki Sugano, José Quintana and Michael Lorenzen. There is also no guarantee Martinez had any interest in pitching half his games at Coors Field. Still, he ended up signing a flyer deal with the Rays and has turned in 66.2 innings, a 1.62 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP and 1.5 fWAR through 11 starts.
The unexplored-market what-if
Munetaka Murakami is the loosest fit here. He was not directly linked to the Rockies, and Colorado did not have an obvious lane for another first base/DH type. But Cory Cohen touched on the larger lesson here on Purple Row a couple of weeks ago: the White Sox found value in a cooled-off NPB/KBO market, took a modest short-term swing on an imperfect player, and got a potential middle-of-the-order force.
This was not a Roki Sasaki or Yoshinobu Yamamoto situation where the Rockies were never realistically in the room. The White Sox, coming off a historically bad stretch, gave Murakami a two-year deal and have been rewarded with 20 home runs, a .381 OBP, a .566 slugging percentage, a 161 wRC+ and 2.1 fWAR through 56 games.
Murakami belongs here as a reminder that bad teams can still chase upside, especially when the rest of the league is hesitant.
The draft re-do what-if
The first three what-ifs are all about 2026 roster-building: a free-agent hitter, a veteran pitcher and an international market the Rockies could have explored more aggressively. Nick Kurtz is different. He is the draft-board alternate reality.
Kurtz is the what-if that hurts most because he gets directly at what the Rockies were trying to find. Colorado entered the 2024 draft looking for a power bat it could build around. The Rockies chose Charlie Condon (No. 1 PuRP), and that was defensible. Condon was one of the best bats in the class, and he has shown signs of progress at Triple-A Albuquerque: a .251 average, .384 on-base percentage and .811 OPS through 171 at-bats.
But Kurtz was also a realistic Rockies option. He was mocked to Colorado at times in the lead-up to the draft and ended up going to the Athletics one pick after Condon.
Through 55 games with the Athletics, the 2025 American League Rookie of the Year has hit .274/.427/.473 with a .900 OPS, nine home runs, 38 RBI, 52 walks, a 164 wRC+ and 2 fWAR.
The underlying numbers support the surface line. Kurtz is walking at a 20.7% clip, chasing just 21.5% of pitches, and posting a 58.2% hard-hit rate. That is not just a hot start. That is a left-handed first baseman controlling the zone and impacting the baseball — exactly the kind of offensive foundation Colorado has been trying to find.
The Rockies chose right-handed power with more defensive flexibility. The Athletics chose left-handed power with a clearer first-base home. For a franchise still looking for a long-term answer at first base, the comparison is hard to ignore.
The franchise-icon what-if
For what it’s worth, Nolan Arenado has 1.7 fWAR.
He is not the superstar version of Nolan Arenado anymore, but he is still a steady, useful player. Through 50 games with Arizona, Arenado is hitting .271/.351/.459 with a .810 OPS, seven home runs and 20 RBI. The underlying numbers are encouraging enough, too: a .334 xwOBA and an 18.0% strikeout rate.
There is no need to relitigate the trade here. Arenado wanted out, and that chapter has been exhausted. But the number still fits the exercise. The former franchise cornerstone the Rockies already had would still sit atop their current fWAR leaderboard.
This is not supposed to be a list of mistakes or a complaint about the moves the Rockies did make. It is just a quick trip down an alternate-reality rabbit hole of players the Rockies might actually have had, and a reminder that this roster is still in flux.
That is the point of a rebuild. Phase one raised the floor and found some useful pieces, but the group fans are watching now is not the final version of whatever comes next.
Now comes the more interesting part: seeing whether the next wave of trades, draft picks, waiver-wire finds and, eventually, free-agent adds can produce the kind of impact that makes another fanbase look at Colorado’s roster and wonder what might have been.
On the Farm
Triple-A Albuquerque Isotopes 13, El Paso Chihuahuas 8
The Albuquerque Isotopes improved to 31-24, while the El Paso Chihuahuas fell to 24-31, after Albuquerque erupted for seven runs in the fifth inning to win 13-8.
Zac Veen (No. 9 PuRP) led the Rockies affiliate highlights, going 4-for-5 with his fifth home run, one RBI, two runs scored and one strikeout. His third-inning homer left the bat at 96.5 mph and traveled 381 feet. Veen is now hitting .295 with an .865 OPS. Adael Amador supplied the biggest swing, going 2-for-5 with four RBI, a triple and his fifth homer. His three-run blast in the fifth traveled 407 feet and pushed Albuquerque ahead 11-7. Vimael Machín and Kyle McCann also homered during the rally. Charlie Condon (No. 1 PuRP) added a double and an RBI, and Albuquerque finished with 19 hits while going 5-for-11 with runners in scoring position.
Double-A Hartford Yard Goats 6, Altoona Curve 5
The Hartford Yard Goats improved to 26-21, while the Altoona Curve fell to 20-29, after Hartford held off a ninth-inning rally for a 6-5 win.
Conner Capel delivered the biggest swing, launching a three-run homer in the first inning to give Hartford an early 4-0 lead. He finished 1-for-4 with three RBI and now has five home runs with a .754 OPS. Bryant Betancourt added insurance with his ninth home run of the season in the sixth inning, a solo shot that pushed the lead to 6-4. He went 1-for-3 with a walk and is now carrying a .802 OPS. Dyan Jorge went 2-for-3 with a double, an RBI and a run scored, while Roc Riggio (No. 14 PuRP) added a hit and a run. Hartford’s bullpen made it interesting in the ninth, loading the bases with no outs, but Andrew Baker came in and struck out three straight batters to earn his second save.
High-A Tri-City Dust Devils 1, Spokane Indians 0
The Tri-City Dust Devils improved to 26-23, while the Spokane Indians fell to 20-29, after Jake Munroe’s sixth-inning solo homer held up in a 1-0 pitchers’ duel.
Gabriel Hughes (No. 12 PuRP), was sharp in his rehab start as he works his way back toward Triple-A Albuquerque. Hughes threw three no-hit innings, walking two and striking out four in an encouraging return for the former first-round pick. The Indians had chances late but could not break through. Alan Espinal doubled to lead off the eighth, but Spokane stranded him. In the ninth, Jack O’Dowd walked and Robert Calaz (No. 6 PuRP) was hit by a pitch, but the Indians again left the tying run aboard. Calaz went 1-for-3 and is now hitting .236 with a .654 OPS. Max Belyeu (No. 15 PuRP) went 0-for-4 with two strikeouts and is hitting .204 with a .690 OPS. Spokane finished with seven hits but went just 1-for-10 with runners in scoring position.
Single-A San Jose Giants 4, Fresno Grizzlies 3
The San Jose Giants improved to 27-22, while the Fresno Grizzlies fell to 27-22, after Fresno’s late rally came up short in a 4-3 loss.
Tanner Thach kept mashing, going 3-for-5 with an RBI and a run scored. He scored Fresno’s first run on Kyle Fossum’s sacrifice fly in the fourth, singled home Derek Bernard in the eighth to cut the deficit to 3-2, then singled again in the ninth to put the tying run aboard. Thach is now hitting .356 with a 1.006 OPS and 53 RBI. Bernard also had a strong night, going 3-for-5 with a double, an RBI and a run scored. He doubled to open the eighth, scored on Thach’s single, then singled home Cameron Nelson in the ninth to make it 4-3. Bernard is hitting .302 with an .852 OPS. Austin Newton struck out eight over four innings but allowed three runs. Brady Parker kept Fresno in it with four scoreless innings, allowing one hit and striking out seven. The Grizzlies finished with 11 hits but went just 3-for-17 with runners in scoring position.
Overall, the loss paled in comparison to the news that Ethan Holliday (No. 2 PuRP) will miss the rest of the 2026 minor-league season after surgery to repair a stress fracture in his left foot.
The one thing Colorado’s No. 2 prospect isn’t good at? Slowing down | MLB.com
Thomas Harding checks in on Charlie Condon’s progress at Triple-A Albuquerque, where the Rockies’ No. 2 prospect is showing signs of adjustment even as the organization takes the long view. The most encouraging note: Condon entered Friday on a nine-game hitting streak with a .333/.436/.667 line over that stretch.
Purple Row After Dark: Reinforcements | purplerow.com
This Purple Row After Dark thread asks whether the Rockies should look outside the organization for reinforcements as injuries pile up and the roster keeps getting tested. Jump in and leave your thoughts in the comments: should Colorado add from the outside, or keep riding with the internal options?
How Likely Are These Rockies Top Prospects to Get Promoted in June | SI.com
Jeffrey Robinson looks at whether Cole Carrigg or Charlie Condon could force their way to Denver this summer. Carrigg’s speed, defensive versatility and Triple-A production make him the more immediate promotion candidate, while Condon’s long-term upside remains the bigger story.
‘I’m not a robot’: Tovar’s struggles make walk-off HR that much sweeter | MLB.com
In another piece by Thomas Harding, the focus shifts to Ezequiel Tovar’s continued progress and Friday night’s much-needed Rockies win. Tovar homered twice, including the walk-off blast, as his bat continues to show better signs after a rough start to the season.
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