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Bullock’s Film Room (paywall)
Film Review: Jaylin Lane vs Bengals
Against the [Bengals], Lane led the team with three catches for 42 yards and played a lot more snaps. Interestingly, the Commanders played him a lot more on the outside, perhaps as a challenge to see if he could step up there with Noah Brown still injured. So how did he get on? Let’s take a closer look.
While the Commanders run game dominated on the opening drive. Lane immediately caught the eye on the second drive.
On this play, Lane aligns outside to the right of the formation.
Prior to the snap, it looks like the Bengals are going to play man coverage with a corner up in press against Lane, but just before the ball is snapped, the corner bails out and the defense rotates to a Cover-3 scheme. That changes how Lane needs to run his curl route. Instead of working to beat a jam at the line of scrimmage and then trying to get on top of the defender, he now has a defender bailing deep to stay on top of him. So at the snap, Lane widens his path to force the cornerback wider, creating more of a gap between the corner and the safety in the middle of the field. This not only creates space for Lane, but also for the tight end running up the seam. Lane shows off his impressive speed, eating up the cushion between himself and the corner in no time at all. He almost manages to get into the corner’s blind spot by how quick he is and how well he angles his path. That forces the corner to keep bailing backwards to stay on top of the potential threat of a go route, which enables Lane to break off his route and create lots of separation. He creates a good five yards of separation as he comes out of his break, which means he can afford to wait for the slightly late throw to arrive without the threat of it being contested. Later on, Lane had another strong curl route against a different type of coverage.
NFL.com
2025 NFL Preseason Week 2 rookie grades
BENGALS AT COMMANDERS
Grade A
Josh Conerly Jr. – Oregon · OT
Washington Commanders 0-2
Conerly stated his case for the Commanders’ starting right tackle job against the Bengals on Monday night. He quickly walled off his man on Washington’s second play from scrimmage, leading the way for Chris Rodriguez Jr.’s 40-yard scamper. His movement was equally impressive on other runs, and he sustained his blocks longer than most first-year linemen typically do. Big Kris Jenkins tried to bull Conerly into the backfield on a pass play, but the rookie stuck his feet into the ground and bent his back to anchor. He gave up the inside lane on one pass-pro rep but later stopped similar advances. Conerly again looked like a veteran holding his water when his man twitched on one third-and-long play in the second quarter.
ESPN
Predicting NFL teams most likely to decline in the 2025 season
On Monday, I published my annual look at the five teams most likely to improve in the upcoming NFL season. In the years I’ve been writing that column, those teams have improved 31 of 38 times, or more than 81% of the time.
Each year, I also break down the teams that are most likely to decline. This column has had a virtually identical success rate; after last year, it’s 30 for 38. It went 3-2 last year, correctly pegging the Ravens (who dropped from 13-4 to 12-5), Giants (6-11 to 3-14) and Browns (11-6 to 3-14) as teams that would lose more games.
The two that defied my predictions will stick in my mind for a while. The Steelers defied the odds again, maintaining their 10-7 record. They’re responsible for two of those eight times in which a team didn’t decline, and the Steelers came within one win of doing it a third time in 2022. Spoiler: They’re not on my list below.
The other team did a little more than maintain its record from the previous season. The Eagles did not decline from their 11-6 mark in 2023. They went 14-3
Washington Commanders
Record in 2024: 12-5
Point differential in 2024: plus-94
2024 record in games decided by seven or fewer points: 8-2
Projected strength of schedule, via ESPN’s FPI: Seventh toughest in NFL
The Commanders join the Chiefs as teams that succeeded after being on last year’s most likely to improve list but are tabbed most likely to decline this season. Washington made one of the biggest single-season leaps in recent league history, improving from four wins in 2023 to 12 last season. Then, the Commanders beat the Bucs and Lions in the playoffs before running out of steam in the NFC title game against the Eagles.
Though I was optimistic about the Commanders last season, I thought they would win around eight games and didn’t expect them to make a deep playoff run. Last season, they fixed their biggest problem from the previous season, creating turnovers. The Commanders jumped from a minus-14 turnover margin in 2023 to plus-one last season, though that mostly occurred by dramatically cutting their turnovers on offense.
I hesitated comparing last year’s Commanders with the 2023 Texans, but that turned out to be a great comp in many ways. The Texans accelerated their rebuild by surrounding a talented young quarterback who cut down on the team’s giveaways with a defensive-minded coach and one of the league’s older rosters. In 2024, though they still won the AFC South, they stagnated a bit; the offseason improvements didn’t click, there weren’t many young players (other than Will Anderson Jr. and the secondary) who became impact contributors, and they relied too much on their young quarterback to bail them out. Houston was still good, but it didn’t take the next step many expected.
We might see the same productions from the Commanders, who fielded the league’s seventh-oldest team last season on a snap-weighted age basis, despite quarterback Jayden Daniels and cornerback Mike Sainristil being wildly impressive in their debut seasons. Getting little out of the draft picks from the Ron Rivera era, general manager Adam Peters covered up holes throughout the roster by adding a bevy of veteran free agents, similar to what Nick Caserio did in Houston. There’s nothing wrong with that philosophy.
Peters has also made aggressive trades to add veterans, and though there’s understandable logic behind those moves, they came at a cost to the Commanders. Washington had just three top-200 picks in April’s draft as a result, and it will again field one of the league’s oldest teams. That means there aren’t a ton of young players on this roster who might improve in 2025.
They were the league’s fifth-healthiest team by adjusted games lost, ranking among the six healthiest offenses and defenses. That doesn’t include Sam Cosmi, who was Washington’s best lineman for most of 2024 before he suffered a torn ACL in the postseason. It’s unclear whether he’ll be healthy enough to start the season on the active roster.
The Commanders went 8-4 in one-score games and enjoyed more incredible moments than some teams have in a decade. Washington’s wildest victory, of course, was decided on the Hail Mary that snatched victory away from the Bears, seemingly sending Chicago into a tailspin.
It’s tough to see Daniels getting that many opportunities again, even if he’s up to the task of succeeding when he does.
Coach Dan Quinn and offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury should be lauded for leaning into the strength of their team and staying aggressive on fourth down, but the results were almost unprecedented. When they needed a fourth-down conversion, Daniels came through more often than anybody could expect. During the regular season, the Commanders went 20-of-23 on fourth downs, good for an 87% conversion clip. That was 14 percentage points better than any other team last season. ESPN has fourth-down data going back to 2000, and no team has gone for it on fourth down more than 10 times in a season and converted more often than Washington did in 2024.
The Commanders scored 115 points on drives after converting at least one fourth down, the most by any team over that span. Given how conservative teams were on fourth down before attitudes changed about analytics over the past decade, I would strongly suspect no team has scored more points from its fourth-down approach in NFL history than the 2024 Commanders.
Daniels & Co. will give opposing defenses pause on fourth downs, but asking them to convert at historically high rates is too much. That was a special season, and assuming Daniels stays healthy, the Commanders should be in the mix for a playoff berth again. But it will be something closer to a consolidation year than the next step toward greatness in the DMV.
The Athletic (paywall)
Why Terry McLaurin and the Commanders still can’t reach a deal
As often happens in contract negotiations, the longer the impasse, the more it seems to become personal for one side. McLaurin told reporters last month he was “pretty frustrated.” General manager Adam Peters, meanwhile, has sparingly addressed McLaurin’s contract situation publicly, saying only that the team wants to reach an agreement.
The top receivers in pay are earning at least $30 million a year. There are now nine of them at that level.
One person with knowledge of McLaurin’s contract negotiations said the veteran receiver has asked for more than D.K. Metcalf, who signed a four-year deal with the Pittsburgh Steelers earlier this year.
If McLaurin is seeking more than Metcalf’s $33 million a year in average annual value, that would put him in the top four among receivers. If he seeks more than the $60 million Metcalf is guaranteed, that would land him in the top 10 receivers among guaranteed money. If McLaurin is using Metcalf’s deal as a benchmark based on percentage of the team’s cap, the Commanders’ wideout would be asking for more than 11.8 percent of Washington’s cap in average annual value, which would be at least the fifth-highest percentage among receivers, according to Spotrac.
The Commanders don’t want to mortgage the future to pay one player, but they have some cap room before they’ll have to pay Daniels a hefty contract.
McLaurin’s age is the biggest sticking point. He will turn 30 on Sept. 15, which means the first year of an extension will be when he’s 31. Production and health typically decline for receivers in their 30s, and while McLaurin and Metcalf have statistical similarities and both entered the league in 2019, the latter is more than two years younger.
Will McLaurin’s activation off the PUP list move things along?
We’ll see. All it means for now is he passed his physical and was medically cleared by the team to begin his ramp-up for the season. That leaves him and the Commanders’ offense less than three weeks to reconnect before the season opener.
It seems unlikely that McLaurin would sit out games if a deal isn’t done by the start of the season. He would lose a paycheck for every game he misses, and could be subject to additional fines at the team’s discretion.
What comes next?
Either McLaurin and the team find a way to bridge the cap before Sept. 7, or McLaurin will likely face a difficult decision in the coming days: accept whatever offer is on the table from the Commanders, or play out his current deal and become a free agent in March.
Washington Post (paywall)
Brian Robinson Jr. and Terry McLaurin show the harsh business of the NFL
The Washington Commanders can afford to move on from their dependable running back, but they must get their star wide receiver back on the field.
Neither Terry McLaurin nor Brian Robinson Jr. was at Northwest Stadium on Monday night for the Washington Commanders’ 31-17 preseason loss to the Cincinnati Bengals. McLaurin’s absence — on Monday and, worst-case scenario, into the season — matters greatly. Robinson’s does not.
It’s a little sad to say that because, in his three years as the Commanders’ featured back, Robinson ran hard and played hurt. But a harsh NFL reality is that running backs are viewed as expendable. We live in a world in which the New York Giants allowed Saquon Barkley to walk in free agency instead of using their franchise tag and paying him big bucks for another season.
Brian Robinson Jr. is not to be confused with Saquon Barkley. But it sure appears he’s about to be allowed to walk.
There’s an argument that Wednesday is the most important day of the Commanders’ offseason. That’s the day of the Commanders’ next workout, and McLaurin either will practice or he won’t.
Quinn wasn’t asked Monday night to clarify whether he expects McLaurin on the field Wednesday. That’s on us, the questioners. So the intrigue lingers.
[Brian Robinson] is an NFL running back but not much more. The Commanders’ impending move on from him is a story but not much more. McLaurin’s return to practice — which has to be Wednesday — is more important by degrees. Thanks for the effort, B-Rob. What say you, Terry?
The Athletic (paywall)
Commanders’ takeaways: Bright spots and things to monitor
So now everyone has formally met “Bill,” the Commanders’ seventh-round rookie whose play in camp and the preseason has helped shape the team’s vision for its future at running back.
Jacory Croskey-Merritt had 46 of the Commanders’ 185 rushing yards on Monday, including a 27-yard touchdown that validated the praise he’s received.
Offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury has an array of GT Counter runs in his bag and pulled one out for Croskey-Merritt. Andrew Wylie, playing left tackle in place of Tunsil, and left guard Chris Paul pulled to the right side. Paul made a kick-out block on Shemar Stewart while Wylie took on safety Jordan Battle to clear out the right side. Tight end John Bates (more on him later) cleared out linebacker Demetrius Knight Jr.
The RBs group is deep, possibly prompting the team to keep four backs on its initial 53-man roster. Croskey-Merritt will, of course, be one of them.
Despite…mistakes, the drive also featured two (almost three) impressive plays by Washington’s safeties. First, Quan Martin had a textbook tackle of running back Chase Brown on a second down. Then, after the Bengals reached the 4-yard line, Will Harris played tight end Tanner Hudson tight in coverage to break up a pass at the goal line.
Martin nearly had another big stop on fourth-and-goal, but Brown barely crossed the goal line.
Later in the first quarter, on a Bengals’ third-and-7, safety Jeremy Reaves brought down Hudson for a gain of only 4 yards. Of course, the Bengals went for it again, and Burrow found a receiver for 13 yards and the conversion.
There’s a reason the Commanders gave Bates a three-year, $21 million extension after he had only eight catches last season. They believe he’s the best blocking tight end in the game, and he showed why against the Bengals.
Bates and fellow tight end Ben Sinnott helped clear a big lane for Samuel on his opening run. On the next play, Bates blocked Cincinnati’s 6-foot-3, 310-pound defensive tackle Kris Jenkins Jr. to open a lane for Rodriguez on his 40-yard run. On the Commanders’ next offensive series, Bates again stepped up on a counter.
Tinsley’s play on Monday night for Cincinnati was notable enough to deserve a mention. And it appears he’ll be on an active roster shortly.
The 6-foot-1, 205-pound wideout had four impressive catches in the final 1 minute, 19 seconds of the first half. The last two were touchdowns, scored 18 seconds apart. It started with a 23-yard catch-and-run on the left side. On the subsequent play, he caught a short pass up the middle that was thrown slightly behind him, tipping it before gaining possession. Three plays after that, Tinsley was in the end zone, on a fade over the head of cornerback Bobby Price in the left corner of the end zone.
Tinsley was back in the end zone seconds later after linebacker Barrett Carter picked off Hartman and ran it back to Washington’s 21-yard line. Again, quarterback Jake Browning went to Tinsley, this time on a fade on the right side. Tinsley grabbed the ball two-handed over cornerback Car’lin Vigers.
Commanders.com
5 takeaways from Washington’s preseason loss to Cincinnati
2. There were still mistakes at critical moments.
Quinn called the loss to the New England Patriots “sloppy” partially because of the 13 penalties they committed throughout the night. They were better Monday night with seven, but mistakes were still a problem at times.
The most glaring errors came during the defense’s first drive of the game. The unit had the chance to get Joe Burrow off the field on a fourth-and-3 at the Bengals’ 49-yard line, but a hard count from Burrow drew a neutral zone infraction from Frankie Luvu. Three plays later, Ja’Marr Chase drew a pass interference call on Noah Igbinoghene that moved the Bengals to the Commanders’ 4-yard line.
5. The defensive investments up front paid off.
The Commanders made a point to get bigger and more physical up front on defense, and those moves look like they have paid off so far.
The Bengals weren’t efficient at running the ball last season, but they still had a hard time finding room against the Commanders’ defensive front. Players like Javon Kinlaw and Eddie Goldman made their presence felt at the line of scrimmage, and it resulted in the Bengals getting just 87 yards on 29 carries. Deatrich Wise and Jacob Martin — two players who excel at setting the edge on run plays — managed to keep Cincinnati’s running backs from reaching the perimeter, resulting in the group averaging just three yards per carry.
Although the starters produced just one sack on Burrow, the quarterback was often scrambling in the backfield. The group does not have one clear star, but the players did not over pursue on their rushes, which allowed their teammates to join in on the pressure. It led them dirsupting the timing between the quarterbacks and receivers, resulting in incompletions on first and second down.
Commanders Wire
7 takeaways from Commanders’ preseason loss to Bengals
Deebo Samuel impact
We finally saw Deebo Samuel in the burgundy and gold for the first time. He didn’t disappoint. He played one series and carried the ball one time for 19 yards. We’re surprised Kingsbury even used that play in the preseason, but everyone knows it’s coming with Samuel, and most still can’t stop it. Samuel has thrived since arriving in Washington. Jayden Daniels has quickly developed a rapport with him, and Samuel is proving he can run the entire route tree, even making plays deep. While the wide receiver position has been chaotic without McLaurin and Noah Brown, Samuel has been a consistent force. Washington’s offense should be fun to watch once McLaurin returns and Kingsbury can use Samuel all over the place.
Podcasts & videos
Commanders’ CULTURE CLASH: Brian Robinson Jr. Trade Rumors & Terry McLaurin’s Hold-In
GET UP | Dan Orlovsky Jayden Daniels embarrass Bengals defense for TD in Bengals-Commanders game
NFC East links
Bleeding Green Nation
Eagles injuries are stacking up ahead of Week 1
They’ve already dealt with injuries to guys like A.J. Brown (hamstring) and Landon Dickerson (knee) — not to mention a handful of depth players. We learned on Tuesday that Jordan Mailata would miss practice after suffering a concussion earlier in the week, and Tanner McKee was sidelined with a finger injury on his throwing hand — reports suggest McKee will not require surgery, at least.
To make matters worse, during Tuesday’s practice, WR Johnny Wilson was carted to the locker room after 11-on-11 drills, and rookie safety Andrew Mukuba left the field after suffering what appeared to be a hamstring injury.
None of the injuries are without concern.
During the team’s preseason game against the Browns, we saw how much the OL depth struggled, and the two QBs behind McKee — Dorian Thompson-Robinson and rookie Kyle McCord — weren’t ready to lead the offense.
Having Dickerson and Mailata out at the same time is not good news for Jalen Hurts or the left side of the line, and McKee being sidelined is definitely a concern for the QB depth — especially for a team and fanbase that understands the value of a really good backup quarterback.
We also saw Andrew Mukuba have a great game against the Browns, but this will be his second injury of the offseason which calls into question his durability. His performance against Cleveland was enough for him to be considered an exciting option for the open starting safety position. Now, we’ll have to see if he’s even ready for Week 1.
ESPN
Cowboys face concerns at QB2, LT, DT as preseason finale looms
Dak Prescott has missed games due to injury in four of the last five seasons. He missed nine games last year with a hamstring avulsion that required surgery. He turned 32 in July.
The Cowboys attempted to sign Jacoby Brissett in free agency and had discussions with at least one more veteran quarterback but ultimately traded for Joe Milton III, who played well in his one regular-season appearance with the New England Patriots last season.
In two preseason games, Milton has directed 17 full drives, and the Cowboys have one touchdown and four field goals. He has been intercepted twice and one of the three sacks led to a safety.
The Cowboys drafted Mazi Smith in the first round in 2023, and he has not had the impact they had hoped. To be fair, he is on his third system in three years.
Last year, the Cowboys added veteran Linval Joseph late in the summer. They could be headed down a similar path in looking for a veteran available as a free agent or on another roster.
If the Cowboys were going to play only their base defense, they would feel comfortable enough with DaRon Bland and Kaiir Elam, but they will need more than just two corners.
Zion Childress has worked in the slot with the starters, but that’s a lot to expect of a rookie free agent. Bland has played inside as well, opening up chances for Troy Pride, Andrew Booth, who had a pick six against the Ravens, and Robert Rochell on the outside. Israel Mukuamu, who is entering his fifth season and had an interception in the first preseason game, can play corner and safety.
Owner and general manager Jerry Jones said the Cowboys have their eyes open. A couple of names to consider: Kendall Fuller and Stephon Gilmore.
The tricky part is the Cowboys expect Trevon Diggs (knee) back if not for the first game or two then maybe by the end of September. Shavon Revel is on a similar track with his recovery from knee surgery, but it would be asking a lot of the third-round pick to play a large role early without much practice.
NFL.com
Assistant GM Brandon Brown appreciates trade interest, ‘but Jameis [Winston] is a New York Giant’
Quarterback remains atop the wish list for some needy clubs and plenty of deal-hungry prognosticators. Is Jameis Winston the odd man out in the Giants’ signal-caller battle royale?
According to a member of New York’s front office, the answer is simple: no. The Giants are happy to have Winston and won’t be entertaining offers.
“I appreciate that people are interested, but Jameis is a New York Giant,” assistant general manager Brandon Brown told reporters on Tuesday.
New York’s depth chart is led by starter Russell Wilson, who joined the team this spring only a few days after Winston signed. Winston is listed as No. 2 on the team’s unofficial list with ascending first-round pick Jaxson Dart at No. 3.
Discussion topics
The Athletic (paywall)
Ranking the NFL’s 25 best rookie QB seasons of the past 25 years
1. Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders (2024)
Stats: 331-of-480 passing (69.0 percent) for 3,568 yards, 25 TDs, nine INTs; 891 yards rushing, six TDs
Team result: 12-5 (second place, NFC East), lost NFC title game
A few first-year quarterbacks have thrown for more yards and touchdowns or had better EPA numbers. But no one on this list was able to enter a rocky situation and completely change the math overnight the way Daniels did last season in Washington — he nearly became the first rookie QB to start a Super Bowl.
One of the league’s brightest young stars, Daniels set NFL rookie QB records for rushing yards, fourth-quarter/overtime TDs and overall completion percentage.
2. C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans (2023)
Stats: 319-of-499 passing (63.9 percent) for 4,108 yards, 23 TDs, five INTs; 167 yards rushing, three TDs
Team result: 10-7 (first place, AFC South), lost in divisional round
3. Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys (2016)
Stats: 311-of-459 passing (67.8 percent) for 3,667 yards, 23 TDs, four INTs; 282 yards rushing, six rush TDs
4. Robert Griffin III, Washington Commanders (2012)
Stats: 258-of-393 passing (65.6 percent) for 3,200 yards, 20 TDs, five INTs; 815 yards rushing, seven TDs
Team result: 10-6 (first place NFC East), lost in wild-card round
It’s possible this is too low, as RGIII (the NFL’s first starting QB born in the 1990s) tore through the league as a dynamic, big-play, dual-threat passer and finished with more than 4,000 total yards. His EPA/dropback of .22 is second only to Prescott’s (.23) among rookies this century.
Griffin required major knee surgery following the 2012 season and was never the same. He ultimately lost his starting job to Kirk Cousins by 2015.
5. Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers (2004)
Stats: 196-of-295 passing (66.4 percent) for 2,621 yards, 17 TDs, 11 INTs; 144 yards rushing, one TD
6. Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks (2012)
Stats: 252-of-393 passing (64.1 percent) for 3,118 yards, 26 TDs, 10 INTs; 489 yards rushing, four TDs
Team result: 11-5 (second place, NFC West), lost in divisional round
7. Andrew Luck, Indianapolis Colts (2012)
Stats: 339-of-627 passing (54.1 percent) for 4,374 yards, 23 TDs, 18 INTs; 255 yards rushing, five TDs
12. Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears (2024)
Stats: 351-of-562 passing (62.5 percent) for 3,541 yards, 20 TDs, six INTs; 489 yards rushing
23. Marcus Mariota, Tennessee Titans (2015)
Stats: 230-of-370 passing (62.2 percent) for 2,818 yards, 19 TDs, 10 INTs; 252 yards rushing, two TDs
Team result: 3-13 (fourth place, AFC South)
Mariota threw four touchdown passes in the first half of his first NFL game and eventually tied Mark Rypien for most touchdowns by a rookie through three starts (8). The former No. 2 pick posted a combined 45 touchdowns over his first two seasons before injuries and inconsistency caught up with him.
24. Carson Wentz, Philadelphia Eagles (2016)
Stats: 379-of-607 passing (62.4 percent) for 3,782 yards, 16 TDs, 14 INTs; 150 yards rushing, two TDs
Team result: 7-9 (fourth place, NFC East)
Wentz’s 379 completions set an NFL rookie record — that number stands now as the second highest of his career. His mark of 3,782 pass yards is also the second best of his career, as Wentz’s boom-or-bust debut season paved the way a stellar 13-game run to open 2017.
Wentz suffered a knee injury in Year 2, but the Eagles still captured a Super Bowl title.
25. Daniel Jones, New York Giants (2019)
Stats: 284-of-459 passing (61.9 percent) for 3,027 yards, 24 TDs, 12 INTs; 279 yards rushing, two TDs
Team result: 4-12 (third place, NFC East)
Jones’ rookie year was the best of his career to date — and it’s probably the chief reason Saquon Barkley is no longer in New York. Jones threw nine more TD passes as a rookie than in any season since, and his performance served as catalyst for the eventual extension the Giants would come to regret.
