We’ve got a big Eastern Conference showdown on Friday night between the Celtics and the Raptors. I’m here to help you prepare for this game by breaking down this season’s previous Boston-Toronto matchups;
we’ll dig into the important matchups and plays that could define this game.
Stack Attack
The Boston Celtics are no strangers to Stack/Spain pick-and-roll actions. They have a variety of options for screening and backscreening that create layers of trouble for opposing defenses. In their last matchup, the C’s honed in on using that set to attack Raps’ big man Sandro Mamukelashvili.
Look at the time for these looks. That’s three straight plays in about 1:30. The first look sees Mamu rising to hedge the screen, opening up the window for a lob over the top once the backscreen hits. Then he sinks into a deep drop, leaving his teammate on an island to navigate the screen and allowing a pull-up three. Mamu sticks in the drop for the third look, and good communication creates a straight switch, but Payton Pritchard still exposes him.
Mamu is a two-way matchup nightmare (more on that soon). He’s a toolsy offensive player who frustrates your best defenders, but he also leaves his teammates out to dry with poor court awareness and a lack of functional size. Expect the Celtics to pick on him often.
Uno Reverse Card
They’ll need every bit of scoring off Mamu they can get to neutralize his minutes. Defensive faults aside, the dude is a hooper. He looks like he should be in an MMA fight (and could probably do well there), but he 110% belongs on an NBA court, a huge accomplishment after a journeyman start to his career. Mamu is posting career highs in points, assists, and shooting efficiency. At 6’9” and pushing 250 pounds, he has a bruiser’s frame to pair with delicate skill. Boston has learned firsthand about his development; Mamu has scored 38 points in the first two matchups.
It’s a tough formula for containing him. They’ve tried Sam Hauser to match size, but he’s not strong enough. Hugo Gonzalez and Jordan Walsh are too small. If they try Neemias Queta, it pulls their best rebounder and rim protector out of the paint. I’d throw Josh Minott his way and see if anything shakes there, while making sure that Queta or the other bigs are shading his way. Otherwise he can burn you from all over the floor in the halfcourt.
Speaking of Boston’s big men…
Emergency Garza Time
Luka Garza has been on a rollercoaster in Boston’s rotation over the past couple of months. He had a consistent rotation role up through mid-November, when a lack of defense and overall impact took him out of the rotation. Over an 11-game stretch, Garza was a DNP-CD in seven games (including their first Raptors matchup), playing only 26 total minutes in those 11 games. Then he got off the bench for the second Raptors game, and changed his fortune.
Luka double-doubled with 12 points and 10 rebounds in 26 minutes of game time with a +22 on/off. He destroyed them on the glass with a whopping nine offensive rebounds. Garza’s rebounding technique and physicality exposes a weakness in this Raptors team: without Jakob Poeltl, they cannot rebound to save their lives.
With Poeltl on the floor this season, the Raptors collect 74% of their defensive rebounds, a 91st percentile mark per Cleaning the Glass amongst all NBA lineups. Without Poeltl, that drops to 70%, a 37th percentile mark. Garza can destroy this team on the glass in his minutes, just like he did last time.
Poeltl is unlikely to play on Friday as he works his way back from a back injury. If he can’t go, look for a heavy dosage of Luka as the Celtics try to win the possession battle.
