Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Lightweight talents Charles Oliveira vs. Mateusz Gamrot will clash TONIGHT (Sat., Oct. 11, 2025) inside Farmasi Arena in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.
It’s a testament to Oliveira’s greatness that he remains a Top Five contender in one of the sport’s deepest divisions even as he’s starting to fall off a bit. “Do Bronx” is looking a little less dangerous in his last few appearances, and yet he was still able to take Arman Tsarukyan to his absolute limit. It remains to be
seen, however, how the recent knockout loss to Ilia Topuria affects him.
As for Gamrot, he’s always trying to jump on any short-notice opportunity that puts him in the cage with a top-ranked contender. The Polish wrestler is clearly very good, but he struggles to really put the stamp on fights when in the cage with truly elite Lightweights. As such, the 34 year old has struggled to build momentum, but UFC Rio could be a huge moment for his career.
Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:
Oliveira vs. Gamrot Betting Odds
- Charles Oliveira victory: -112
- Charles Oliveira via TKO/KO/DQ: +400
- Charles Oliveira via submission: +275
- Charles Oliveira via decision: +600
- Mateusz Gamrot victory: -108
- Mateusz Gamrot via TKO/KO/DQ: +350
- Mateusz Gamrot via submission: +700
- Mateusz Gamrot via decision: +250
- Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
How Oliveira Wins
“Do Bronx” is an all-time great offensive fighter. Combining potent Muay Thai with some of the most aggressive jiu-jitsu in UFC history, Oliveira is a verifiable wood chipper that can finish his opponents in an instant.
This is hardly the first grinding wrestler Oliveira has faced. All the way back in 2011, Oliveira was destroying Nik Lentz by smashing him with knees and reversing him with submission threats in response to his constant takedown attempts. From Darren Elkins to Kevin Lee, Oliveira has faced a who’s who of relentless takedown artists and knows how to navigate those waters.
The key here is doing damage while Gamrot expends energy wrestling. Just last year, Dan Hooker managed to wear down Gamrot with constant pressure, stabbing front kicks, short elbows while Gamrot hung onto his legs. After a round, Gamrot’s face and posture showed a man who was struggling to maintain his own pace, and Hooker’s success continued to grow.
Oliveira should be attempting a similar strategy. Whether he’s at distance, in the clinch, or in bottom position, Oliveira should be attacking. He can wear Gamrot down and force the Polish fighter to expend energy at an unsustainable rate, setting him up for a strangle in the second half of the fight.
How Gamrot Wins
Gamrot is one of Lightweight’s best technical wrestlers. He chains together his shots beautifully and has a lot of variety to his finishes. Once in top position, Gamrot is an excellent jiu-jitsu player as well, though he sometimes struggles to hold down his most athletic opposition. On the feet, Gamrot is a mobile kickboxer with a sharp 1-2 from either stance, though he struggles if forced to box for an extended period of time.
I mentioned a good handful of grinding wrestlers in the sections above, but I didn’t name Islam Makhachev, the single man to really beat up Oliveira on the canvas since 2018. The key for Makhachev — and what I expect to be the key for Gamrot as well — was that the Russian champion hurt Oliveira on the feet and didn’t force his takedowns.
Gamrot can strike with Oliveira, who has never been hard to hit even at the best of times. If, like Makhachev, Gamrot keeps his feet moving on the outside, he won’t have a hard time baiting Oliveira into swinging at him. Gamrot has managed to crack quite a few quality opponents on the counter, and it’s imperative he earns Oliveira’s respect standing here.
If Gamrot can hurt the Brazilian, he’ll find his takedowns land much more easily and should be able to make better headway once on the canvas too.
Oliveira vs. Gamrot Prediction
Strangely, I feel Gamrot must badly hurt or outright finish Oliveira on the feet to win this fight. Given Oliveira’s lengthy career and recent knockout loss, that’s certainly not impossible. Gamrot is fast and throws a crisp 1-2, and that combination could be enough for a quick victory. The problem is I’m not sure Gamrot has it in him to commit to a striking match, particularly on short-notice. In the face of Oliveira’s aggression, he’s likely to fall back to his comfort strategy and wrestle hard. He may find some early success, but committing to the wrestling will eventually backfire for “Gamer.”
Expect Rio to go wild when the tap comes.
