The Milwaukee Bucks are about to kick off the fourth annual NBA Cup with their first group stage game tonight against Toronto. They are the only team in their group, East A, to have not played on October 30; the other four teams—Brooklyn, Toronto, Orlando and Detroit—all played, with Detroit beating Brooklyn and Orlando beating Toronto. Despite being 1-7, the Bucks could actually make some noise in the cup games, and that isn’t just hopium-charged optimism, but a reflection of the Bucks’ strengths
this year (yes, they exist) and how cup games are generally played.
The Cup
Here is a quick refresher of the NBA Cup rounds, groups, and rules:
- The games that are played every Friday, starting October 30 and ending November 27, are NBA Cup games. There are additional Cup games on Tuesday, November 24, and Wednesday, November 25.
- Each team plays the four other teams in their group, with two home and two away games.
- All Cup games will count towards the regular season standings, except for the championship game.
- After the group games have concluded, eight teams will continue to the Knockout Rounds. Those eight teams will be the six group winners plus two “Wild Card” teams, one from each conference that finished with the best record in Group Play games and finished second in their respective group. Convoluted, huh?
- The tiebreakers are head-to-head win/loss, point differential, total points, 2025-2026 record, and then a random drawing should all previous tiebreaker fail.
- The Knockout Rounds are single-elimination games leading up to the championship, where teams will play for a prize pool and the Cup trophy.
The Group
As noted, the Milwaukee Bucks are in Group East A. The standings currently look like this:
The Road Ahead
The Bucks Cup schedule is as follows:
- Friday, November 6 vs. Toronto
- Friday, November 13 @ Orlando
- Wednesday, November 25 vs. Brooklyn
- Friday, November 27 @ Detroit
As always, we’ll cover these games in regular fashion, so stay tuned for more in-depth analysis of each matchup!
A Brief Tale of the Tape
With Kawhi Leonard out for Toronto, it appears that the Bucks’ toughest test of the Cup will take place later this month when they head to Detroit to take on the Pistons. Beyond these two, Brooklyn is 2-6 to begin the year and Orlando is 2-5, and both of these teams possess a major disadvantage in Cup play: ank in the bottom five in both transition frequency and points scored in transition. This matters because of the significance of point differential: in the Cup, you’ll see teams leave their starting five out all game in an effort to score as much as possible, even in the face of a blowout. The Bucks, Raptors and Pistons are all in the top ten in time spent in transition and points per game, but the Bucks are bottom-five in field goal percentage when in transition. This should not shock Bucks fans: pretty much everyone on the Bucks has had a hard time finding their groove and really breaking out. Therefore, should the Bucks start to see some of these shots fall, they may be able to push the pace, wear out Brooklyn and Orlando, and hang in there against Toronto and Detroit.
If those shots do not fall, however, Milwaukee still has a chance if it can play its brand of basketball. A particularly concerning trend for the Bucks in the first eight games of the season is that their bigs are having a hard time finishing at the rim on offense and being able to get consistent stops in the paint on defense. Even with those concerns, the Bucks rank 20th in points in the paint, which is not good, but better than the Nets, Magic and, perhaps most surprisingly, the Pistons, who rank 22nd.
Where the Bucks hold an advantage over all of these teams is rebounding, which both feels right on schedule for a Jenkins-led team and an absolute breath of fresh air for Bucks fans. Currently, the Bucks are third in total rebounds per game and offensive rebounds per game, and fourth in defensive rebounds per game. Only Toronto has the Bucks beat in offensive rebounding, averaging 14.8 per game to Milwaukee’s 14.5, but the Bucks hold a fairly sizable lead over their group in every other rebounding category. Plus, even on a poor shooting night, more shots are always better than fewer, meaning fans can expect to see the Bucks push the pace even more and pick up as many second-chance opportunities as possible (where they rank third in the league). So, as long as the Bucks don’t beat themselves and stick to the brand of basketball they have been working on in the early season, they actually stand a chance to make a little noise—and maybe even surprise some folks!
Group Play Predictions
You know what? Why not? The Milwaukee Bucks will win their bracket. Yeah, I said it. What’s more, they’ll go 4-0, baby! After two tough road losses in which the Bucks had chances to take or maintain the lead, the team will return to Fiserv hungry for its second win against a Kawhi-less Raptors team, which lost last week to the Magic, handing Orlando just their second win of the season. After notching the first victory of the Cup against Toronto, the Bucks will travel to Orlando and play the Magic, who will not be able to keep up with the Bucks on the boards or in transition. A similar fate will befall Brooklyn, albeit in more explosive fashion, as the young Bucks will continue to mature and remain hungry and motivated for the cash prize at the end of the journey. Finally, with a chance to advance to the Knockout Rounds on the line, the Bucks will notch a quality road win against Detroit, which (somehow) also struggle on the boards and are in the bottom-10 for second chance points.
Emerging Champion
Keeping the hopium cranked up, should the Bucks find themselves 4-0 when Group Play is wrapped up, it will likely be due to at least one player breaking out. That will be Brayden Burries, who will finally enjoy his first signature moment. Fans who have been watching all season know that Burries’ shot selection has generally been good; he’s just had a hard time finding the bottom of the net. The NBA Cup will give him a stage to change this and, coupled with his rebounding ability, he will help find a way to lead his team to victory and emerge as one of the future stars in Milwaukee.
How do you see the Bucks faring in the NBA Cup? Now that it’s in its fourth year, how do you feel about the tournament in general?
