The Denver Broncos gave up a first-round and a third-round pick for Jaylen Waddle in the offseason to spark one of the most functionally-limited passing offenses in the NFL in 2025, but the early returns have Sean Payton’s offense stuck in third gear with a slow start in 2026. Although Payton relinquished play calling duties to Davis Webb this season and has pushed some of the responsibility onto a first-year offensive coordinator, he can’t avoid the lingering question that has followed him from
New Orleans to Denver:
Is Sean Payton the most overrated coach in the NFL?
The Broncos gave up a first-round pick for Payton in 2023, believing that his offensive “genius” could at least make Russell Wilson a serviceable quarterback for a fraction of his $230 million contract. Instead, Payton and Wilson beefed and the quarterback was benched before the end of the season to avoid an injury guarantee kicking in. Denver’s offense ranked 19th in points and 26th in yards.
The next year, Payton orchestrated a team decision to draft Bo Nix 12th overall despite some concerns that the veteran college quarterback wouldn’t have the arm talent for the NFL. Nix has allayed the skepticism somewhat by being an adequate game manager on a team that has arguably the best defense in the NFL since 2024, but his 4.5 air yards per completion as a rookie ranked 32nd. That number only went to 4.7 AY/C in 2025, which ranked 30th.
The reason this matters is that it could prove that Nix has not proven his critics wrong. He’s proven them right.
Bo Nix, to date, is one of the least threatening downfield passers in the NFL who still holds a starting job. This doesn’t make him bad in and of itself, but it is a tad concerning when that quarterback is young, if not in the prime of his career. Nix’s attempted air yards sits with the likes of Geno Smith, Kirk Cousins, and Aaron Rodgers.
That’s not the company he wants to keep in 2026.
This was the quarterback who Payton was comfortable resting his offensive reputation on because Drew Brees is also not known for his arm strength. Brees was one of the most devastating “game managers” in NFL history, if not one of one.
However, there is no comparing the Broncos offense to the Saints offense of the 2010s, which again brings us back to the notion that Sean Payton is a future Hall of Fame-level coach who led the charge for one of the most potent passing offenses in NFL history for a decade. Now it’s starting to look like that had a lot more to do with Brees than Payton.
Payton goes 12-4 with Brees in 2020. Then 9-8 without Brees in 2021 and promptly enters semi-retirement in 2022.
He takes over a dumpster fire in Denver in 2023 and immediately helps the team finish nearly .500 (8-9) that first year, before improving to 10-7 in 2024, and 14-3 in 2025.
So one could then argue that Payton couldn’t possibly be overrated because the Broncos reached the AFC Championship game and “only lost” because Nix was injured in the divisional round and unable to start. However, let’s not forget that Jarrett Stidham was supposed to be “Payton’s guy” handpicked to be ready to go as a functional quarterback at a moment’s notice, but proceeded to go 17-of-31 for only 133 yards in the biggest moment of Denver’s season.
Consider what the Broncos have invested into offense since Payton’s arrival:
- 2nd round pick on WR Marvin Mims
- 1st round pick on QB Nix
- 4th round pick on WR Troy Franklin
- 5th round pick on RB Audric Estime
- 7th round pick on WR Devaughn Vele
- 2nd round pick on RB RJ Harvey
- 3rd round pick on WR Pat Bryant
- 4th round pick on RB Jonah Coleman
A first-round quarterback with two day two receivers and a day two running back but Harvey, Bryant, Mims, and Franklin are of little regard. They probably won’t last long. Payton was not able to build a good rushing offense, even with a highly-respected offensive line.
So the Broncos had to trade a first and a third and pay Waddle instead as a pairing for Courtland Sutton, one of the only guys who Payton inherited. The Broncos acquired J.K. Dobbins and Dobbins is merely OK, not special.
To add insult to bad drafting, the Broncos traded Vele to the Saints and now Vele has 133 yards through two games. Waddle has 140 yards.
If the reason that Denver is good is defense, and Vance Joseph controls the entire defense, then I’ll ask again:
Is Sean Payton overrated?
Rams chance to find out
The Rams take on the Broncos this week and while Sean McVay’s reputation has only gotten better since the 2018 NFC Championship game, Payton’s bank account seems to be the only thing growing since then.
Payton has done NOTHING revolutionary on offense in the last 15 years, whereas McVay seems to stay on the cutting edge of offensive identity every single season.
As a reminder, Payton’s Saints went 25-23 in his first three seasons, and then New Orleans won the Super Bowl in 2009 while ranking first in points and passing touchdowns. Respect.
But over the next four years, with prime Drew Brees, the Saints posted double-digit wins three times (Payton was suspended for all of 2012 and they went 7-9) and failed to get past the second round of the playoffs.
They went Jeff Fisher’s 7-9 in each of the next three seasons after that.
Then wasted Brees again every year from 2017 to 2020, never winning more than a single game in a postseason.
Sean Payton went 3-0 in the 2009 playoffs.
Sean Payton is 6-9 in the postseason over the last 16 years.
His best offensive seasons were Drew Brees.
His best Broncos seasons were Vance Joseph.
So what exactly does Sean Payton do?
I guess we’ll find out on Sunday.
