How long can Purdue walk the tightrope?
As noted earlier this week, this weekend is a gigantic series for the program as it seeks its first NCAA Tournament bid since 2018 and only fourth ever. There are Big Ten Tournament scenarios in play as well, making this an even more interesting weekend.
At 35-15, 18-9 B1G and with an RPI of 47 the Boilers are very much on the NCAA Tournament Bubble as they head to Des Moines to face a solid Iowa team (26-21, 12-15). Purdue is so much on the Bubble that they are considered
to either be the last team in the field or the first team out. Sometimes all you need is a chance. In 2022 Mississippi was the consensus final team in the field, but it caught absolute fire to go 10-1 and win the national title.
Obviously, that would be an incredible run for a team like Purdue, but simply making the NCAA Tournament for a program such as our own is huge. The Rebels also had the advantage of absolutely dominant pitching throughout the tournament.
GAMEDAY INFORMATION
Purdue (35-15, 18-9 Big Ten) at Iowa (29-21, 12-15 Big Ten)
May 14-16 / Stream B1G+
Series Opener: Friday, May 14 at 7:30 p.m. ET
Middle Game: Saturday, May 15 at 7:30 p.m. ET
Series Finale: Sunday, May 16 at 2 p.m. ET
Principal Park / Des Moines, Iowa
PROBABLE PITCHING MATCHUPS
Thursday: Cole Van Assen (Jr, RHP) vs. Iowa’s Maddux Frese (Jr, RHP)
Friday: Zach Erdman (Sr, LHP) vs. Iowa’s Tyler Guerin (So, RHP)
Saturday: Austin Klug (Sr, RHP) vs. TBA for Iowa
Iowa is not an NCAA team, but they are a solid squad with an RPI of 75. They were one of the preseason favorites in the conference, but they were swept by both Southern California schools and Nebraska, going 0-9 against the three ranked teams in the league. Last weekend they were hammered by the Cornhuskers 10-0, 15-11, and 8-6.
Many of their results have been similar to Purdue’s when you look at common opponents. Both were swept by USC. Both Purdue and Iowa won series against Illinois, Maryland, and Penn State two games to one. Both swept Indiana. Both also played #7 Oregon State early in the season, with Purdue winning 5-2 and Iowa losing 4-3. The only major difference is the Hawkeyes lost to Michigan State two games to one and Purdue took that series 2-1. That said, Iowa did play the three best teams in the league in UCLA, USC, and Nebraska, while Purdue played only USC of those three.
Iowa’s Gable Mitchell is leading the Big Ten batting title race headed into the final weekend with an average of .384 and 41 RBI. Purdue’s pitching has been more consistent, as the Boilers are seventh in the league with a team ERA of 5.01 and Iowa is 13th at 6.19. These are two of the best offensive teams in the conference too. Iowa is second in the league only to Nebraska with a .306 average, while Purdue is just behind them at .305. The Boilers have a more powerful lineup with 64 team home runs to Iowa’s 54, but Iowa has outscored Purdue 402-397 over the course of the season.
On paper this is a very even series. I would give Purdue a slight edge on the mound, especially with Jake Kramer pitching very well at the back end with nine saves. Still, it will not be easy.
After looking at the various tournament projections from Baseball America, D1Baseball, and speaking with Ben Turner, our SID, the consensus is that Purdue absolutely needs to win this series to stay alive for an NCAA at large berth. There exists a scenario where Purdue might sneak in with a lengthy Big Ten Tournament run, but a road series win probably sends Purdue to Omaha next week at least on the good side of the Bubble.
A sweep gives a little more cushion, especially when it comes to bid thieves. That can very much happen in the baseball tournament like in basketball. Conference tournaments come with automatic bids, and there are a few leagues that only have 1-2 locks and could get an extra team in. The Sun Belt has two locks (Coastal Carolina and Southern Miss), but a few teams good enough to steal the autobid. The Big West is basically UC-Santa Barbara, who has an outside chance at hosting a regional, and no one else. The Southern Conference is one to watch, as Mercer has a very strong RPI in the top 35 and is coming off of an important midweek win at No. 3 Georgia Tech. If they lose in the SoCon tournament final that could easily take a bid off the board.
In terms of the Big Ten Tournament, that is its own conundrum. The top four seeds receive a bye to the quarterfinals, which will be single elimination beginning next Friday. Seeds 5-12 get thrown intot he Octagon beginnin Tuesday and must win two games in a double elimination frenzy just to reach Friday. Purdue is currently tied with Oregon for the fourth and final bye and a game behind USC. They would lose the tiebreaker with both, but USC plays at the Ducks this weekend, so one of them will receive at least two losses.
If you’re Purdue do you want to be fifth and have a shot at racking up a top 100 win or two in the double elimination dogfight to get the last four quarterfinal spots, or do you want a top 4 finish to save your pitching and get a stronger matchup in the quarters, likely against Michigan (RPI 36), USC (RPI 8), or Oregon (RPI 20)? All three of those would give Purdue a much-needed tier 1 win, and they would have a pitching deficit in having played two or three games before Purdue plays its first. If you’re the four seed you also have the monster that is UCLA (46-5, 26-1) likely waiting in the semifinals. That in itself presents a tremendous opportunity in that a loss does nothing to damage the resume, but a win would be gigantic. In fact, just playing the No. 1 team in the country could provide a slight RPI bump.
That is all next week, however. Right now Purdue has momentum. It has won seven straight and it is riding a wave of momentum from last week’s dramatic sweep of Indiana. If the Boilers can continue that momentum and take at least two games in Des Moines it should enter the conference tournament on the happy side of the Bubble.
