By the time this is published, three series will be in the books, and it’s been the best of times and the worst of times. Initial thoughts on the whip lash?
James: The team’s lack of overall depth is staring them straight in the face. Paul Sewald is still a head-scratching signing by the front office. Loaisiga is pretty much just who we all thought he would be when he signed the make-good minor league deal. He’s likely working his way into becoming the team’s primary closer the way Shelby Miller did last season. The team needs to find some consistency in the offense. Right now, Marte, Perdomo, and Carroll are largely carrying the team. Lawlar was just really
starting to shape up before he got hurt. The currently rostered alternatives to Lawlar are not encouraging. Santana and Arenado need to find some sort of fountain of youth, at least for a few months. The current Eduardo Rodriguez is the one we all thought we were getting starting 1.5-2 years ago. Zac Gallen is starting to look like the “better” version of Gallen from last season, the post deadline version. Someone needs to get into the bullpen and work with Ryne Nelson on his pitch shape. His four-seam is not moving quite like it did last year and he is getting punished as a result. Overall, the team is basically playing to the level expected, even if a closer examination has those results coming in a way other than expected. Mostly, the team cannot afford any further significant injuries. The roster is already being held together with bubble gum and bailing wire. One more injury to a starter or primary bullpen arm and this season could get ugly in a damn hurry.
Makakilo: With a little bit of serendipity, the Diamondbacks could have won Friday’s game (tied after 8 innings), and they could have won two games against the Dodgers (each lost by 1 run). Their record would have been 6-2! So far, the Diamondbacks have not yet reached their potential to be a playoff team. It could happen!
Spencer: I’m not sure what to make of it. Expecting a win against LA would be foolish. But expecting to sweep the Tigers would’ve been similarly foolish going in. And we pulled the worst of Atlanta’s pitching yet receive no offense….? Let’s talk at the end of May and see what’s up.
1AZfan1: It’s been a rollercoaster, for sure, but I’m going to follow along with Mak’s comment and say that we’ve been blown out twice and in each other loss we’ve either lost by 1 or we were tied going into the 9th inning. Finishing about .500 in 1-run games is about what you should expect so sitting at 2-2 in those contests seems fair. The only disappointment with our current record is that we swept the Tigers instead of the Dodgers. It stinks losing to the Dodgers.
ISH95: Pretty crazy start to the season. There have definitely been positives. The offense got off to a great start, then switched to ice cold. E-rod has been great to see, Gallen’s been decent in total, but Nelson has been a concern. If this is how it’s going to be all season, we’re all going to have more grey hairs by the time it’s finished.
Which is more likely to continue: Rodriguez’ hot start of Nelson’s cold one?
James: I think Rodriguez’s hot start is the more likely for two reasons. First, this version of E-Rod is pretty much the pitcher the team was expecting to get all along. Over the previous two seasons he has shown flashes of this, but was constantly battling nagging injuries. A nick here, a knock there and he was rarely ever pitching at his best. Now, he’s in better shape after new conditioning and he was made ready earlier in the spring to pitch for Venezuela, which has helped him be in mid-season form in April. The second reason I pick E-Rod is that Ryne Nelson has had some ridiculously bad luck. The first four hits he surrendered this season all left the yard. Even Brandon Pfaadt bounced back from a similar stretch earlier in his career and he doesn’t have as high a ceiling. I’ve never been one convinced that Nelson had TOR stuff, but he does have the makings of a solid #2/3 pitcher if he can correct his current four-seam issue and continue to develop his secondaries.
Makakilo: Two reasons that Nelson will bounce back before Rodriguez regresses.
- This season through Friday, Rodriguez’s FIP was 2.60 and Nelson’s FIP was 9.18. Nelson’s FIP is unbelievably different from his career FIP. Rodriguez and Nelson have career FIPS that are not that much different (3.95 vs 4.25).
- Nelson is 28.2 years old and Rodriguez is 33.0 years old. Rodriguez has the experience needed to stay consistent.
Spencer: Rodriguez’. Nelson is still young and the league has been adjusting to him. Plus he’s only been a full time starter for…what like months not even years at this point because of Yo-Yo Hazen? Rodriguez has a history of a great season every few years.
1AZfan1: I’m expecting regression to the mean from both, but I don’t have faith in ERod to keep this going much longer. Maybe he really is the pitcher we had always hoped he was when we initially signed him, but it’s been a whole lot of disappointment over the last 2 years that have scarred me to the point that I’m just waiting on the other shoe to drop and he’s back to our old 5 ERA pal. I hope I’m wrong, of course.
ISH95: The constant hard contact that Nelson is giving up scares me. His last start saw 9 balls hit over 100 miles per hour while he was in the game and he was responsible for eight of them. That’s not a recipe for success, and if they don’t figure that out, he’s going to have a long season.
Bigger loss: Pavin Smith or Jordan Lawler?
James: Lawlar by a country mile. Pavin Smith is little more than a placeholder player in the 26-man roster anymore. He is entirely mediocre in the field, both at first and in right. Even without signing Santana, I wondered just how much time Smith would actually get as a starter. Yes, he puts together decent at-bats. But he doesn’t find the production of someone like Perdomo, despite his reputation for his discernment at the plate. On the other hand, this is basically Jordan Lawlar’s big make or break season. And right now, he is on the shelf with a significant break. Jordan Lawlar still looks to have a bright future in the desert, albeit in left instead of at short. This is likely Pavin Smith’s last season in Arizona
Makakilo: Lawlar’s injury was the bigger loss because the outfield has significant uncertainty about which outfield players will exceed pre-season expectations. After the injury, it looks like Carroll and Tawa have the best chances to exceed pre-season expectations.
Spencer: Lawlar because he needs healthy reps and was finally showing why judging a prospect with ~100 plate appearances is bad analysis. But don’t sleep on the effect of losing Smith. Santana’s leash just got a lot longer since we have basically no 1B depth. That’s going to have a big impact too. Positive behind the scenes (hopefully) and negative on the field.
1AZfan1: Lawlar is the popular answer for all the reasons everyone mentioned above and I agree with it. Among players with at least 20 PA on the D-backs, he leads in OBP, wOBA and wRC+ and he’s second (to only Corbin) in SLG, xwOBA and fWAR. Pavin’s loss hurts because Santana is now our only first baseman, but I’m happy to see Fernandez getting reps there just to find him a spot in the lineup.
ISH95: At the start of the season, I’d have said Pavin Smith because Carlos Santana: Only First Base Option is the stuff of nightmares, but Fernandez has shown very strong early returns that might mitage that disaster a bit more. Plus I wasn’t really expecting a whole lot from Lawler in his first real season. But Fernandez and Lawler’s start has switched that around for me.
How has the first few games of ABS gone in your opinion? Has it changed anything about your game experience?
James: I don’t mind it. I think it is helping to drive home just who the worst of the worst umpires are. Mostly, I will be glad when ABS has been around long enough that I don’t get 5-10 minutes of explanation about the ABS system in every MLB game I watch. Overall, I think it is shaping up to be a net positive. That will only become more so once the early days negatives start to fade away.
Makakilo: I like it! Even a few corrected calls give the players more control over the game outcome, which is a great thing!
Spencer: I’ve been singing its praises since I first saw it in AAA years ago. Full Robo Calling can’t come fast enough for me. Human action changes everything else about the game, why limit the one thing you can fully automate to create a level playing field? (We all know the actual answer: the ump union would be furious and mlb gets free marketing from bots and incels tweeting about wrong calls constantly…)
1AZfan1: I think on the whole it’s been a success, but I don’t think it’s made as much an impact on the game as the pitch clock did. I still feel there are too many missed opportunities by our hitters and catchers. To that point, our 4 ABS challenges by hitters is the least amount in the league, per FanGraphs (catchers are middle of the pack in total challenges). I hope our hitters get more comfortable challenging soon.
ISH95: Love it. And one thing I’ve been particularly happy to see is that my general reaction to a call being overturned against the Diamondbacks has been fairly neutral. I’m sure that will change as the season progresses and the stakes get higher.
What’s one topic that you could give a 15 minute Ted Talk on with no prep time?
James: I was a chef for 30 years before becoming a scholar of Anglo-Saxon literature, Tolkien, and fairy tales. So I have two knowledge bases that I can pretty readily draw from for anything from a 30 second explainer all the way up to a 90 minute lecture. None of those subjects are particularly Ted Talk type material though. I would probably have to settle for something like the value of art or something related.
Makakilo: My journey from Diamondbacks fan to writer. Along the way, I learned how to use statistics websites, improved my writing, and developed my own writing style. And I had a lot of fun! I overcame several bumps in the road. My writing moves between Microsoft Office Software, Google Docs, and the WordPress Editor. The editor shows that I currently have 555 posted articles.
Spencer: Personal security in Big Brother America. More necessary than ever and yet rarely allowed.
1AZfan1: My professional training is in maintenance management, but that’s not a very TED Talk friendly subject, so it would likely be on the value of utilizing history in organizational leadership. The Navy is huge on history and heritage and learning to leverage that has helped me tremendously as a leader. Maybe that doesn’t play too well outside the military, though.
ISH95: I’d always argue that history and heritage is important as a leader. What that history and heritage looks like, however, would differ from path to path. For me, I could probably give a pretty decent TED talk on how to improve the financials of a restaurant or how to train and develop younger people to get to where they want to be. That’s a huge part of my job as a fast casual/fast food restaurant manager, and, as much as I may complain about them kids sometimes, something I actually find very rewarding.
