When I looked at the trade value of both Nolan Arenado and Sonny Gray, I said I may return to them, but look at potential bad contract swaps. After researching the potential swaps…. I would be pretty surprised
if this happens. There really aren’t many potential swaps. Which makes sense if you really think about it. First, how many teams actually want Nolan Arenado? And how many of those teams have a contract they’d like to swap with the Cardinals… that the Cardinals would be willing to pick up? If that list is zero, I would not be surprised.
And then there’s the no trade clause. This affects, presumably, Sonny Gray more than it does Arenado. But Gray’s contract is not that bad, so the other contract can’t be bad either. But then why are they trading that contract? Then it turns into a need for a need swap to some degree. But I’m not as convinced Gray is willing to be traded as widely assumed, so I actually think the list of teams is rather short. I truly believe this is a hypothetical.
Before I get started, there’s one contract swap that I am not able to envision that I’ve seen in the comments. And that’s Teoscar Hernandez. Even if the Dodgers get Kyle Tucker, I think they need Hernandez more than they need either Arenado or Sonny Gray. They currently have five healthy starters, both River Ryan and Gavin Stone returning from injuries, Roki Sasaki will be tried again at SP I’m guessing, and Justin Wrobleski is probably perfectly capable of starting, but there’s no room for him. Meanwhile, I’m assuming this hypothetical involves them getting Tucker, but the current projected CF is Tommy Edman on Roster Resource, and you could put Andy Pages in CF, move Edman to 2B, and kick Hyeseong Kim to the bench, who wasn’t good last year. Okay let’s see what we have.
Sonny Gray and Brendan Donovan for Jurickson Profar, JR Ritchie, and Cam Caminiti
So I thought this would be a lot more straightforward, but you can’t swap Profar with Gray. It’s not because the contracts don’t line up, which they don’t, it’s that the Braves desperately need Profar or at least a LF. There’s no trade unless the Braves already found his replacement if his replacement is not in the trade itself. They don’t need Gray that much. Again, #1 issue with Gray going to the Braves is that he’s a luxury, not an actual need.
Second problem I ran into was that the Braves farm system is horrendous. Their #1 prospect is 20-year-old pitching prospect Didier Fuentes, who is so close to the majors that he started 4 games last year. He was bad in them, but he was also 20. They aren’t trading him. And then they almost exclusively have starting pitching prospects. I would prefer an outfielder in this deal, but they do not have that. Their #4 prospect is 17-year-old Diego Tornes, who had a 117 wRC+ in the DSL. Fangraphs has him as a 45+ future value prospect, I reject that categorization though. I would be shocked if that’s how he’s valued in an actual trade.
The benefit of this though is just… pick your poison. Which Braves starters are they willing to trade? They have a ton. Caminiti is their #2 prospect and 2024 1st rounder. He had a 31.9 K% as an 18-year-old in Low A. He’s fairly far away. I also got someone a lot closer in Ritchie, who started last year in High A and finished in AAA. He had good stats at every level and is going to be 23 next year. And yes, it does have to be Donovan, because Burleson can’t play the outfield and Nootbaar is probably missing some portion of next year, and that doesn’t really align well with the Braves.
Why not? Well, I would really, really prefer an outfield prospect to be in a deal like this and they just don’t have that. Except for the DSL guy who is five years away. Cardinals have a ton of pitching prospects already! I know you can never have too many.
Why make it? I mean in the near term, it sure solves two issues: clears up the left-handed logjam and Ritchie instantly slots in next to Quinn Mathews as the most MLB ready pitching prospect in the system.
Sonny Gray for Eduardo Rodriguez, David Hagaman, Slade Caldwell
I don’t know what Rodriguez’s projection is, but it was 1.6 entering 2025 in about 105 innings. He threw 154 innings in 2025, so his innings projection will rise. But as a pitcher with injury problems throughout his career, I looked at the last time he went from a low inning total to a higher inning total and how that affected the projection. In 2022, he threw 91 innings, which produced a projection of 132 innings. After a 152 inning season, his projection went up…. 5 innings. 50 is a lot less than 91 innings, so I do think we’ll see a bigger rise, but it’ll probably top out at 120 innings. He’ll also presumably have a worse projection on a rate basis. I’ll say 1.4 WAR in 120 innings, and then 0.9 WAR in year two. That’s 2.3 WAR or $23 million.
His salary over the next two years is $40 million with a $6 million mutual option that vests if he either throws 300 combined innings in the next two years or 150 in 2027. Easy enough to avoid if he’s bad, but that does give his contract $-23 million. I have Gray at $-14 million, which means the Cardinals can get roughly $9 million worth of prospects. Caldwell is a speedy but undersized outfielder from the most recent draft and Hagaman would fit pretty well with the trade deadline acquisitions being a mostly reliever transitioning to starter who posted a 35.5 K% in 20 innings in High A. He may have pitched his way out of being a 40+ future value guy honestly. Also the Diamondbacks were reportedly on Gray’s shortlist when he signed with Cards, hence why I have them as a possible trade.
Why not? Well, unlike the Braves who have more options than the ones I picked, Caldwell is kind of the only outfielder and they may be attached to him being a 1st rounder from the 2025 draft. They may also be attached to Hagaman, posting absurd K rates, who they just got at the deadline. Also spending $21 million and a probably $6 million buyout after 2026 on a seemingly washed up Rodriguez is not ideal.
Why? If Dewitt doesn’t mind lighting some money on fire, Rodriguez does fit on the 2026 roster, and worst case is you just release him before 2027 to make sure that option doesn’t vest. Best case, Rodriguez plays up in Busch and they get two prospects I would like to have. I mean Rodriguez is only 33, so he’s not a guarantee to pitch poorly.
And thus concludes the Gray possibilities. Gray might be willing to go to the Reds, but they don’t have a bad contract to swap, so if the Cardinals do trade him there, it won’t be in the spirit of this post.
Nolan Arenado to the Angels
Nolan Arenado for Anthony Rendon and $18 million
I’m operating under the assumption that Rendon will not play in 2026. I would love to get a prospect instead of the money, but that isn’t really how this kind of deal would work. I consider Rendon almost entirely underwater, getting paid $38 million in 2026. My own internal calculation of Arenado was $-20 million. Hence, them throwing in $18 million.
For 2026, the Cardinals don’t save a ton of money. They still have to pay Rendon $20 million, but that is slightly less than the $22 million they’d owe Arenado (the Rockies are responsible for $5 million). But it gets them completely off the hook for Arenado’s $15 million in 2027. Even though the Angels are bad, I think Arenado might be okay playing in Los Angeles and getting a guaranteed starting spot, which there’s not many places where that’ll be true.
Why not? Weirdly, this is a worse deal if Rendon is going to play at all in 2026. Granted, you could just release him. Also maybe this is the one year the Angels are realistic about where they are on the win curve, and if they are, it makes no sense to get Arenado.
Why? Cardinals are free to play an internal option at 3B in 2026 and they don’t have to pay Arenado in 2027. Best case scenario for an Arenado trade.
Nolan Arenado and $10 million for Jorge Soler
Soler is getting paid $16 million in 2026, and I’m just going to use the Steamer projection, which is 0.6 fWAR. Hence, he’s $10 million underwater, and the Cardinals make up the rest of that by throwing in $10 million themselves. If you assume the Cardinals throw in $5 million each year, that means they will be on the books for Arenado and Soler for a combined $21 million in 2025 and they’d only be on the hook for $5 million in 2027. Without a trade, they are on the hook for $22 million, so it effectively doesn’t impact 2026 at all and saves the Cardinals $10 million in 2027.
This one is less about saving money (although it does save them a decent chunk for 2027, which isn’t unimportant) and more shifting the money to the outfield. Soler is 34 and a season removed from a 120 wRC+, so it’s not impossible he could bounce back and then the Cardinals could trade him at the deadline for a better return than they’d get for Arenado.
Why not? Well, Soler is terrible defensively, like pretty much unplayable, so you’re just kind of shifting the 3B logjam to the DH logjam. In practice though, they would play Soler in the outfield and he’s worse than Alec Burleson, who shouldn’t be playing the outfield either. And you know there were would be too many days were Soler is in RF and Burly in LF. You know it’d happen.
Why? Soler can hit lefties – he has a 130 wRC+ against them for his career, compared to 105 against RHP. Full disclosure: he didn’t hit lefties last year, he didn’t hit anyone really. But you could platoon him, stomach the defense, and hope he’s tradable at the deadline.
Nolan Arenado and $8 million for Anthony Senzatela
Yes, the funniest possible outcome is the Cardinals giving Arenado back to the Rockies. Nolan, I know you want to win, we could not find a winning team for you. Go back to your original team, build your Hall of Fame case. Senzatela is a replacement level pitcher getting paid $12 million with a club option for 2027, although interestingly there does not appear to be a buyout. Stick Senzatela in the bullpen as a long relief option until he forces you to release him. Unless he pitches okay of course. Maybe getting out of Coors will help. But I have zero intention of putting this guy in the rotation.
Why not? Just because Arenado is opening his list of teams does not mean he wants to go to Colorado. So I’m not sure this is a realistic option. It is however the best possible thing he could do for his career in my opinion. They’ll play him every game and he can rack up the counting stats in the easiest place to hit ever. His best shot at the Hall is returning to Colorado.
Why? Shed some money, clear out 3B, I mean the reason is the same for every Arenado trade that doesn’t actually return value.
Nolan Arenado, Cooper Hjerpe, and Jesus Baez for Luis Castillo
I wanted a little variety, so I actually did choose to address the Castillo/Arenado swap. And that is the best possible trade I could come up with that would hurt the least. Part of that is that the Cardinals just got Baez, so I have no particular attachment. The other part is I have never been particularly high on Hjerpe as a starter, so if they could cash in on his value, I would be okay with that. How did I arrive at this package?
Well Castillo is something like $8 million underwater, getting paid $24 million the next two seasons. If it’s considered closer to a neutral contract, then Tink Hence is in this deal for me. I am not making this deal to be clear, but if I get orders to make the best possible deal for Arenado with Castillo as the return, I’m cashing out on Tink Hence.
Why not? This is very much a win now trade and I don’t know why the Cardinals would make a win now trade. They unquestionably improve in 2026 by making this trade. But who cares? They don’t improve to probable playoff position. Also this does raise the very possible future where Hjerpe (or Hence) is better than Castillo in 2027. I don’t care how pessimistic I am about Hjerpe or how low the odds are, I would do anything to avoid that. I can handle a win now trade that looks bad later, I cannot handle a win now trade where it might not even improve your team in the now.
Why? The only reason is that it definitely improves the 2026 team and probably improves the 2027 team. It’s not a dumb trade if you’re trying to win now.
And there you have it. I’m sure other people could find other contracts, these are just the most realistic I could come up with. Other possible deals I viewed as unlikely because maybe Gray and Arenado wouldn’t want to go there, the other team truly has no need for either, or the Cardinals would not be interested in the returning contract. Some of those reasons could very well apply to my trades, but I can at least imagine a reality where they don’t apply. Realistically, I don’t think a bad contract is coming back if the Cards trade Arenado or Gray.
