We are officially in the dog days of the offseason with the rush of NBA free agency, the NBA Draft, and Summer League all behind us. There is truly nothing left to do other than fret over every day there isn’t a long-term deal with Jalen Duren. However, it feels like fans are treating every day without the Shams tweet announcing the pact as bad news. As if every day means the two sides are getting further apart or getting angrier at each other.
It’s important to take a step back and understand that
every new day is just another day. When that influx of available free agent cash, roster spots, and big man needs dried up around the NBA, the need for a quick resolution to this drama also evaporated.
Josh Giddey signed his restricted free agent deal in late September. Collin Sexton got his bag as an RFA in September. Jarrett Allen signed his first big deal in August. As did now-Piston Duncan Robinson when he was a member of the Miami Heat. Same for Lonzo Ball and Lauri Markkanen.
Sometimes these things just need to play themselves out. Every passing day is not one step closer to Jalen Duren deciding to leave a guaranteed $150 million on the table so he can sign his qualifying offer out of spite. It IS one day closer to an eventual resolution, however.
Each side is trying to find the parameters of a deal they are comfortable with. Duren wants more than is on the table today. That’s fine. That’s also not a surprise. That doesn’t mean Detroit is inevitably going raise its offer or that Duren won’t be perfectly happy with the deal he eventually signs if it comes next week or next month.
It’s how the system is built. As The Athletic notes, these RFA negotiations are stretching deeper into the offseason and at a greater volume than ever before. Punitive cap penalties (the dreaded second apron) and falling league revenues, which means a cap that rises more slowly, are the primary culprits.
That same article notes that in a worst-case scenario where Duren signs his qualifying offer and signs a max with another team as an unrestricted free agent next offseason, he could sign for about $205 million. That’s far below his max number of $287 million. But that’s the reality Duren faces. Detroit can reasonably be assumed to be offering a low-end of $180 million over five years to $210 million on the high end (for the sake of argument, and that is likely lower than Detroit’s actual best offer to date).
So even if the Pistons are really trying to flex their leverage and offer something like $185 million, that means Duren is comfortable leaving $175 million on the table (by taking his qualifying offer) for a chance to make $5 millon more per season — MAYBE.
Because there are no guarantees for Duren that the max offer will be on the table from any team next season. There are the risks of injury and the risk of delivering another disappointing playoff performance that takes the shine off his rising star.
No, it is still exceedingly likely that Duren returns to the Pistons on a multi-year deal this offseason. And both sides will be a little annoyed but largely happy. Duren will get his bag, and Detroit will get its building block as it attempts to build a title contender.
It’s just business. Whether it gets completed on July 6, July 26, or August 26. It’s still just business.
