Coming off a tight 36-30 win over the Arizona Cardinals, the San Francisco 49ers have a nice early test at home with the Denver Broncos coming to town.
Faithful, take 49ers game day wherever you go!
Stay connected to the action and share every reaction with fellow 49ers fans on the SB Nation app.
- Join the live game-day chat
- Browse with fewer ads
- Seamlessly jump between communities
- Enjoy faster commenting and posting
Download the SB Nation app on iOS or Android.
San Francisco’s offense has been the big story so far, as Brock Purdy has led one of the most efficient offensive attacks in the NFL so far. The 49ers are fifth in yards per game, second in points per game, and
first in EPA/play by a wide margin. They’re also first in success rate, EPA per dropback, and dropback success rate, illustrating the success of the passing game.
That has come even with a plethora of injuries at wide receiver, as Brock Purdy has emerged as an early MVP contender, throwing for 789 yards, nine touchdowns, and an interception through three games, while rushing for 93 more and another score.
But the 49ers will get a good test this weekend, as they take on the Denver Broncos, who have looked much better the last two weeks after a stinker against the Kansas City Chiefs in the opener.
Heading into the game, the 49ers are 2.5-point favorites, while the over/under is quite high at 47.5 points, according to FanDuel.
Here are my three predictions for this week’s game between the 49ers and the Broncos. But first, let’s take a look at last week’s results.
Last Week
- 49ers run game finally gets going
- It will be a heavy blitz day for Raheem Morris
- 49ers drop 27+ for a third straight week
The 49ers have been cruising past opponents, but its run game hadn’t been as dominant as you’d hope through the first two weeks. Still, I thought last week’s spot was a good one for San Francisco to establish itself in the run game, especially with the advantage up front in the trenches.
That turned out to be right, as the 49ers ran for 140 yards, while averaging over six yards per carry. Christian McCaffrey saw a healthy workload, taking 15 carries for 75 yards and a touchdown. Kaelon Black added 17 more yards on four carries, while Deebo Samuel had 14 yards on two carries.
The pass game still dominated, as Brock Purdy had a quality day, tossing for 297 yards and four touchdowns, but it was good to see the offense be complementary and the run game start to develop.
With Jacoby Brissett in the pocket, I thought the 49ers would look to blitz more, especially with their situation at quarterback. Well, Raheem Morris blitzed 14 times on 41 Brissett dropbacks, with the 49ers getting pressure on four dropbacks. Brissett generally was throwing short of the sticks, but he averaged just 4.9 yards per attempt on those 14 dropbacks when blitzed.
The 49ers offense also had a big day and hit the 30-point marker again, with the offense getting a late touchdown to seal the deal.
Now, let’s move on to this week.
49ers get off to a fast start
A big part of San Francisco’s offensive success has been their quality starts. They’ve scored on their opening drive in each of their three games. Two of those drives with long, sustained drives that took up a big chunk of first-quarter clock, and the third was the quick hook-and-ladder touchdown drive last weekend against Arizona.
Denver has also gotten off to slow starts repeatedly this season. For whatever reason, they’ve struggled to start hot, and that could come to fruition again in Week 4, especially with the 49ers at home.
Denver has struggled against the run as well this season. I’d expect the 49ers to rely a bit on that run game early for a sustained drive and set the tone early in a physical game.
There will be turnovers on both sides
Brock Purdy has been essentially mistake-free after his poor interception in Week 1 against the Los Angeles Rams, and the 49ers offense has been humming as a result.
But these are two opportunistic defenses, which is why I could very well see a turnover on both sides. Bo Nix has been inconsistent to start the year, as his QBR ranked 24th in the NFL, while he’s completed only 60.2 percent of his passes.
He’s also been sacked five times, committed a whopping eight turnover-worthy plays, and has four turnovers (three interceptions, one fumble).
Denver has also gotten four takeaways, though, including two major Talanoa Hufanga interceptions last week. I think they’ll look to play more opportunistically defensively and try to spring a turnover out of the 49ers.
The 49ers have obviously protected the ball quite well, with the team losing just two turnovers so far this season. Brock Purdy has played a big role in that, but it will be a good challenge for San Francisco here on Sunday, and I could see a game where turnovers play out on both sides.
It’s an in-breaking game for the 49ers offense
Denver’s linebackers have not looked great to start the year. It’s potentially the team’s biggest weakness so far, and that’s music to Kyle Shanahan’s ears.
The 49ers will have to figure out their personnel for the game with their injuries, but I think they’ll look to attack the middle of the field a ton against Denver. Naturally, that could lead to a turnover, as shared above, but this feels like a game that Deebo Samuel can win on the inside, while Mike Evans gets a good challenge on the outside against Patrick Surtain.
It also feels like a great opportunity for George Kittle (who might also get some Hufanga matchups) and certainly Christian McCaffrey in the passing game. The Broncos also mightily struggled with tackles in Week 1 before improving on that in recent weeks. We’ll see if the 49ers can exploit that as well after the catch or after contact.
