Green Bay (4-3) comes off a 20-17 loss in Detroit and hosts Carolina (3-3) on a short week. The Panthers lead the NFC South but were blown out 43-13 at home by Tampa Bay on Sunday, and Bryce Young was pulled late in that game.
Carolina’s offense has been reinvented under first-time play-caller Brad Idzik, and Young led the NFL in passing yards entering Week 7. Carolina’s run defense is among the league’s worst, and that gives Green Bay’s last-ranked run game, now with Josh Jacobs back, its best matchup
of the season.
2025 recap
Carolina went 8-9 and won the NFC South on a tiebreaker over Tampa Bay, its first division title in Dave Canales’ second season. The Panthers lost a close Wild Card game to the Rams. The win total was better than the underlying play: the offense ranked 26th in EPA/play (-0.08), with -0.09 EPA per dropback, and the defense ranked 23rd (0.02 allowed).
Key Losses
- RB Rico Dowdle signed with Pittsburgh for 2 years, $12.25M.
- C Cade Mays signed with Detroit for 3 years, $25M.
- DL A’Shawn Robinson was released and signed with Tampa Bay.
- QB Andy Dalton was traded to Philadelphia.
- DE D.J. Wonnum left in free agency.
- LB Krys Barnes, LB Christian Rozeboom, CB Damarri Mathis, G Austin Corbett and WR Hunter Renfrow also left.
- T Yosh Nijman and QB Will Grier retired.
- Senior advisor Jim Caldwell left the staff.
Key Additions
- OC Brad Idzik took over play-calling from Canales.
- Associate head coach Darrell Bevell joined the staff.
- Edge Jaelan Phillips signed for 4 years, $120M.
- LB Devin Lloyd signed for 3 years, $45M.
- TE Hayden Hurst signed for 3 years, $21.75M.
- QB Kenny Pickett signed for 1 year, $4M as the backup.
- LT Rasheed Walker signed for 1 year, $4M.
- C Luke Fortner, T Stone Forsythe, WR John Metchie, TE Darren Waller and RB AJ Dillon also signed.
- WR Jalen Coker signed a 3-year, $34M extension.
- The team exercised Bryce Young’s fifth-year option ($25.9M).
- OT Monroe Freeling was a 1st-round pick (No. 19).
- DT Lee Hunter was a 2nd-round pick.
- WR Chris Brazzell II was a 3rd-round pick but suffered a season-ending injury in camp.
- CB Will Lee III was a 4th-round pick.
- S Zakee Wheatley and C Sam Hecht were 5th-round picks.
Efficiency, 2026 through Week 7
Panthers offense
- EPA/play: 0.00 (11th)
- EPA/dropback: 0.04 (~16th)
- EPA/rush: -0.05 (~11th)
- Success rate: 43.7% (~14th)
- Points per game: 26.5
- Pass rate over expected: 1st (as of Week 4)
- Pressure rate allowed: 46.3%, 2nd highest (as of Week 4)
Panthers defense
- EPA/play allowed: -0.02 (20th)
- EPA/dropback allowed: -0.03 (~13th)
- EPA/rush allowed: 0.00 (30th)
- Success rate allowed: 43.7% (20th)
- Yards per carry allowed: 5.2
- Points allowed per game: 27.7
Packers offense
- EPA/play: -0.05 (18th)
- EPA/dropback: 0.08 (~11th)
- EPA/rush: -0.29 (32nd)
- Success rate: 38.9% (~28th)
Packers defense
- EPA/play allowed: -0.11 (4th)
- EPA/dropback allowed: -0.11 (5th)
- EPA/rush allowed: -0.11 (~9th)
- Success rate allowed: 44.0%
Panthers 2025 (full season)
- Offense EPA/play: -0.08 (26th)
- Offense EPA/dropback: -0.09 (~27th)
- Offense EPA/rush: -0.06 (~19th)
- Offense success rate: 42.8%
- Defense EPA/play allowed: 0.02 (23rd)
- Defense EPA/dropback allowed: 0.07 (~23rd)
- Defense EPA/rush allowed: -0.03 (~18th)
- Defense success rate allowed: 44.2%
Pass and run success-rate splits are not public.
First six games
- L 37-59 vs. CHI: lost the highest-scoring Week 1 game in NFL history. Young threw for 361 yards and 3 TDs, but the defense allowed 291 rushing yards.
- W 34-3 at ATL: a dominant road division win.
- L 18-21 at CLE: Young was inaccurate and sacked three times, and the offense had no explosive plays.
- W 32-26 vs. DET (Sunday Night Football): Young threw for 329 yards and 2 TDs for his first prime-time win.
- Week 5: bye.
- W 25-14 at PHI: a road win over the Eagles.
- L 13-43 vs. TB: Young went 14-of-27 for 163 yards with 1 TD, 2 INTs and a lost fumble before being pulled. Tampa Bay ran all over the Panthers’ defense.
Keys for Green Bay
- Run the ball. Carolina allows 5.2 yards per carry and ranks 30th in EPA per rush, and Tampa Bay just gashed it. Jacobs made his season debut last week, and if the Packers can’t find a run game in this matchup, they won’t find one this season.
- Pressure Young. Carolina’s line is in pieces: RT Taylor Moton is out, LT Ikem Ekwonu is on PUP, and the Panthers allowed pressure on 46.3% of dropbacks through four games. Young has handled pressure better this year, but Jonathan Gannon should attack a patchwork line.
- Take away the big plays. Young leads the NFL in 10-plus-yard completions and was among the leaders in 20-plus-yard completions through four games, and Idzik uses play action on 31.5% of dropbacks. The Packers’ pass defense, 5th in EPA per dropback, needs to keep everything in front of it.
- Attack the secondary. Top cornerback Jaycee Horn is on IR. Matthew Golden (540 yards) and Christian Watson should find openings on the outside.
- Handle the short week. Thursday games favor the more stable team. Green Bay is at home, rested on defense and comes off a close loss, while Carolina comes off a 30-point home blowout.
Injuries to watch: For Carolina, Moton is out, Jaelan Phillips is questionable, Horn, Xavier Legette and Jonathon Brooks are on IR, and Ekwonu is on PUP. For Green Bay, Micah Parsons (PUP), Edgerrin Cooper, Javon Hargrave and Jayden Reed are out, and Sean Rhyan and Jacob Monk are questionable.
