Who: Pittsburgh Penguins (3-3-1, 7 points, 5th place Metropolitan Division) @ Colorado Avalanche
(4-2-1, 9 points, 3rd place Central Division)When: 7:00 p.m. eastern
How to Watch: Locally televised game on Sportsnet Pittsburgh and ALT, KTVD, streaming for out of market at ESPN+
Pens’ Path Ahead: The road trip picks up the pace with a game tomorrow night in Vegas, followed by a trip to Utah for Monday night. After that, the Pens return home for the next three games (starting with a visit by Florida
to Pittsburgh on Thursday Oct 22).
Opponent Track: This is the third game in four days for the Avs, after a back-to-back with Dallas. Colorado won the first leg of that Tuesday night in Dallas, then fell in a shootout at home. After today comes a two-day break and a trip east to play in Philadelphia on Monday.
Season Series: This is the first of two matchups, the two teams will meet in Pittsburgh on January 12th.
Hidden Stat: Pittsburgh has points in four of its last six trips to Ball Arena (3-2-1), per Pens PR.
Getting to know the Avalanche
Projected lines
FORWARDS
Artturi Lehkonen – Nathan MacKinnon – Martin Necas
Gabriel Landeskog – Brock Nelson – Nazem Kadri
Jaden Schwartz – Fedor Svechkov – T.J Hughes
Parker Kelly – Gavin Brindley
DEFENSEMEN
Devon Toews / Cale Makar
Brett Kulak / Sam Malinski
Josh Manson / Brent Burns
Noah Juulsen
Goalies: Mackenzie Blackwood and Scott Wedgewood
Potential scratches: Nicolas Roy (lower body injury), Zachary L’Hereux (upper body injury)
Injured Reserve: Logan O’Connor
- The Avalanche played an 11 forward/7 defense lineup last game due to a pair of injuries up front. They do have the cap and roster space to call-up an AHL forward if they want or need to if those injuries linger.
- Interesting to see the changes made by Colorado in recent years. They’ve lost a few pieces, most notably Mikko Rantanen. However, as a win-now type of team, they’ve loaded up to grab Nelson and Necas, re-acquire Kadri, fill out the depth with Schwartz, Kulak, Burns and Roy.
- Overall, the team only has eight players remaining from their 2022 Cup team (MacKinnon, Kadri, Makar, Toews Landeskog, O’Connor, Lehkonen, Manson). A lot of those players are the foundation to build a contender on, now the question becomes whether they’ve built up enough around it to win again in the primes of MacKinnon+Makar. To draw a Penguin parallel, this period for Colorado now isn’t dissimilar to the 2010-15 era for Crosby and the Penguins where they failed to replicate championship aspirations following the first title. Is there a second championship act still to go for this core?
- One potentially sore spot for that: the Pens’ late glow-up was enhanced by a wave of rising young players (Murray, Guentzel, Rust, Dumoulin, Maatta, Sheary). Colorado doesn’t have that in their organization, only three U-25 players have dressed in the NHL so far this season, and none in particularly key roles. The Avs have deviated and gone the other direction by going very veteran and adding older players ala Nelson, Kadri and Burns, and spending big future assets in some of those cases to get them. Doesn’t mean it’s right or wrong but a curious way to hold up this Avalanche team to where Pittsburgh was at a similar time in the contending lifecycle.
Season stats
via hockeydb
- MacKinnon has been a force this season to average almost two points per game, while also dropping the gloves for two fights. MacKinnon’s never won an Art Ross scoring championship (such is the curse of the age of McDavid) but did take the Rocket Richard trophy last year with an NHL-high 53 goals.
- Makar missed a game earlier in the week due to the birth of his twins. New dad strength hasn’t been instant, he was held without a point in his return on Wednesday against the Stars.
- Until watching a game last week, I completely forgot that the Avs added Schwartz over the summer as a free agent. The 34-year old had been mired in Seattle since that franchise’s inception in 2021, the 2019 Cup winner with St. Louis could be an important depth player for Colorado.
- Colorado’s power play is 16th this season, hitting at an even 20.0%. The Avalanche only have three 5v4 goals (and two more scored in 5v3 situations), and they’ve already given up three goals to shorthanded teams. That could be an X-factor for the Pens, where they’ve only given up two goals this season while shorthanded and scored one of their own while down a player.
- Even strength has been the area where the Avs have done a ton of damage, already scoring 26 5v5 goals in just seven games. (By comparison, the Pens rank eighth in this category with 18).
Key to the game: Fast start
Colorado, as expected, looks very strong early in the season. Their 31 goals scored in seven games is the second highest-scoring team per game behind Edmonton. Their 58.8% expected goal share at 5v5 is among the highest in the NHL. They are a strong team that can be dominant.
The Penguins only need to look back about seven months to see how to handle all that. The Pens beat Colorado 7-2 in Denver on March 16th in their last trip to the Mile High City. A key: Pittsburgh scored four goals in the first 14 minutes of the game. Before the Avs knew what hit them, the game was out of reach.
It might be a little much to ask for history to repeat itself there, but the lesson to take is trying to stay ahead of the game. Falling behind would be a make an uphill climb even steeper. That’s why a lot of attention will be on Pittsburgh’s top two lines tonight, they need to make an impact and set the tone in this game. If they can do that starting early in the game, you’d have to like the Pens’ chances. If not, it could be a long night.
And now for the Pens
Projected lines
FORWARDS
Rickard Rakell – Sidney Crosby – Bryan Rust
Egor Chinakhov – Tommy Novak – Evgeni Malkin
Andrei Kuzmenko – Ben Kindel – Nick Robertson
Connor Dewar – Blake Lizotte – Elmer Soderblom
DEFENSEMEN
Declan Carlile / Erik Karlsson
Sam Girard / Kaeden Korczak
Spencer Stastney / Kris Letang
Goalies: Arturs Silovs and Sergei Murashov
Potential Scratches: Hendrix Lapierre, Ville Koivunen and Ryan Johnson
IR: Ryan Graves, Justin Brazeau, Trevor van Riemsdyk
- There were some line changes yesterday in practice, Nick Robertson worked his way up to play on Kindel’s line and it looks like Soderblom will be playing for just the third time this season. Koivunen is the odd man out and it could be a second game as a healthy scratch in a row for Lapierre.
- The Pens have a goalie decision on their hands with tonight’s game as well as tomorrow night’s tilt in Las Vegas. You’d figure one goalie will play in each night and against a tough team no matter what, the timing of using them has not yet been disclosed.
High-energy practice
The Penguins weren’t pleased after their 5-3 loss to Chicago. They got some work in yesterday to prep for the weekend.
Second period team
Per Pens PR:
The Penguins have scored 12 goals in the second period through seven games. Only the Colorado Avalanche, Carolina Hurricanes and Utah Mammoth have more goals in the middle frame so far this season:
Second Period Goals
Team GP 2nd PD GF
Colorado 6 16
Carolina 8 14
Utah 7 13
Pittsburgh 7 12
Vegas 8 12
In addition, four of Tommy Novak’s five points and three of Declan Carlile’s four points this season have come in the second period.
Over the last six games, the Pens have only scored three goals in the first period, conceding six. They’ve also had problems in the third period with a 4-10 combined score in the last six games. However, that middle period has been a big boon for them with a 12-5 scoring edge on the season.
