Yesterday, Ethan asked you to put on a scale your confidence level in each of the Phillies starting pitchers. Today, we’re going to take that one step further and discuss the two pitchers who, without even looking at those replies, one can surmise made up the consensus on the lower end of the confidence scale. One is a rookie trying to find his way and the other is a long-time vet trying to rediscover it.
Andrew Painter came into the season as the much-hyped former top prospect but with the caveat
of not being quite the same pitcher following Tommy John surgery and coming off of a brutal season in Triple-A. He was tasked with simply being the Phillies fifth starter this year. Anything else was to be considered a bonus. Now as we sit in June, Painter has a 6.21 ERA through 12 games (11 starts). The troubling trend of his fastball getting crushed in the Minors last season has carried over to the Majors, as opponents are hitting .390 with a .585 SLG against Painter’s heater. Again, the Phillies don’t need much from Painter, but they definitely need better than this.
Aaron Nola meanwhile may not have had as high expectations, but he arguably was more important to the Phillies than Painter. But much like the rookie, the 12th year MLB vet is also struggling mightily, as Nola sports a 5.86 ERA through 13 starts. He had an utterly nightmarish 2025 filled with injury and poor performance, so the expectation coming into 2026 from most was that Nola just needed to be a back of the rotation innings eater. Well, he’s only finished at least six innings in four of his starts. He’s lasted less than five innings in five of his 13 starts. The Phillies need innings from Nola, and he has not been able to do so to this point in the season.
Both of these are immediate problems for the 2026 Phillies. They simply cannot afford to have 2/5 of their rotation not just unable to give them quality innings, but innings in general. Their bullpen has not been over-worked to this point, as they entered play Monday with the seventh fewest innings thrown by relievers, but that is becoming a concern with the Phillies penchant for one-run games. Unfortunately, there are not many other options, as the starting pitching depth is essentially non-existent in the Phillies organization, so the Phillies very much need Painter and or Nola to find something soon. If not, it could become much more of a problem as the season wears on, especially in the event of an injury to one of their other starters.
Both struggling pitchers are varying degrees of long-term concern as well, but we’re here just to discuss the immediate present. So, who is the bigger concern for 2026: Andrew Painter or Aaron Nola?
