Sometimes numbers do lie.
One scan over the stats from Saturday, and for the second week in a row, FSU seemed to be shortchanged out of a win. Florida State outgained Miami by over 70 yards, held the Hurricanes’ ground game under the century mark and had more than double the amount of first downs. Miami took over 100 yards in penalties, converted fewer third downs than the Seminoles, while FSU ran 24 more plays than their counterparts.
Almost always those stats favor the winner, but after a similar
stat line against Virginia last Friday resulted in a loss, the Seminoles once again overachieved at undersucceeding.
At least the defeat to the Cavaliers could be blamed on a coin flip of a double-overtime loss, because while the plays on the field obviously dictated the game, it was a loss that stems arguably from Florida State’s recruiting failures, once again, rearing their ugly head.
Because for all the talk about Miami and FSU using the transfer portal to microwave their rosters, it was the homegrown Hurricanes who took over Saturday night’s rivalry matchup.
While defensive end Reuben Bain Jr. always seemed destined to be a ‘Cane, given his family history and connection to the coaching staff, his final visit before committing? Florida State. The Seminoles whiffed, Bain turned himself from a physical specimen to the potential No. 1 pick in the NFL Draft in three years, and continued tormenting opposing offensive linemen in Tallahassee with four tackles and two quarterback hits on Saturday.
The Seminoles were also in on Miami linebacker Wesley Bissainthe until the end, and at one point, held a crystal ball from 247Sports predicting his commitment to Mike Norvell. Instead, Bissainthe was one of Mario Cristobal’s first recruiting wins, and on Saturday, Bissainthe finished tied for second on the Hurricanes in tackles and recovered FSU’s final onside kick attempt with 20 seconds left in the game. Bissainthe was part of the 2022 recruiting class. The Seminoles have only one linebacker on their roster from that year, Omar Graham Jr., who recorded two tackles on Saturday and played single-digit snaps versus Virginia a week ago. According to 247Sports, the highest-rated defensive lineman that Florida State took in 2023 — Bain’s year — was KJ Sampson, who did not record a stat on Saturday.
The talent disparity does not stop at the recruiting whiffs from a few years ago, but also at what happened just a few months ago. Malachi Toney, Miami’s true freshman wide receiver, broke the game open, going 7-107-2, including a 44-yard touchdown on the ensuing play after Tommy Castellanos’ interception. Who picked it off to set up the score? True freshman Bryce Fitzgerald.
When offensive tackle Micah Pettus left due to injury, the Seminoles needed to play their starters out of position because they had not signed, retained and developed enough talent to handle the constant attrition that occurs in the trenches. Meanwhile, FSU’s most heralded high school recruits from their 2025 class, running back Ousmane Kromah and defensive lineman Kevin Wynn (who by all means still appear to be hits and will one day be dominant players), made critical errors that helped sink the Seminoles. Those, and multiple other slip-ups, are errors that cannot be overcome as the second-most talented roster on the field and ones that are becoming far too common from Mike Norvell’s team in big spots.
In a vacuum, the mistakes made today were the reason for a close defeat to a worthy opponent. It is easy to point to the three turnovers and say, “FSU lost because of those.” Quarterback Tommy Castellanos certainly felt that way and told the media postgame, “I don’t think they did anything to stop us. We had three turnovers…I just think we had self-inflicted wounds.” While Castellanos’ courage is commendable, in reality, those turnovers were baked over the course of multiple off-seasons as Miami’s pressure, with a more talented front, affected him throughout the entire game.
“I thought our guys battled, but we just had too many mistakes,” Norvell told the local Tallahassee media. “Miami did a good job. They did what they needed to do to win the game. They protected the football, they hit some explosive plays. We fell behind early, there were some untimely penalties, some mistakes that we made that were a little too much to overcome in the end.”
“I believe in the talent and the ability this team has, but we’ve got to go get better. It’s there for what we do in our response and what we do in our preparation this week to go apply the corrections so that we don’t have to have this experience again.”
Norvell likes to mention that playing against Miami is a “365-day-a-year game.” Current and former players say that the head coach will bring up only two games in the offseason: Miami and Florida. But as Cristobal pointed into the camera at the end of his on-the-field postgame interview and declared Miami “State Champs,” and as the Hurricane players celebrated with a sign that read “Back-to-Back State Champs,” one school talks about it and another is acting on it. Norvell has now lost to Miami and Florida at home in the last 10 months, sitting at 5-4 overall vs. Florida State’s in-state rivals. The jury may still be out on the new FSU staff’s ability to recruit and retain, but the talent gap is as clear as ever now — and only getting wider. Until that fact changes, these results are going to be the feature, not the bug, of the Norvell-Cristobal era.
Thought No. 1: Miami cuts the wire, flips the script
Florida State had the most explosive offense in the country coming into Saturday night. The Seminoles led the country in yards per game, points per game and plays over 40 yards.
On Saturday, they had zero.
Miami flipped the script on FSU, limiting the Seminoles’ explosive plays while dishing out a taste of their own medicine. UM quarterback Carson Beck threw for 241 yards on Saturday, with 207 yards coming on five plays, including three touchdown passes over 20 yards and two over 40. Meanwhile, Castellanos recorded only one pass over 20 yards before the fourth quarter and did not throw a ball over 30. The running game faced a similar fate, with no rushes for 20 yards, and only four runs for 10 yards or more. The Hurricanes let their front porch get after the quarterback and dropped their safeties deep to protect against the deep pass. Miami also utilized their bye to their advantage and diagnosed the gadget plays to Micahi Danzy better than any team so far this season. The Seminoles never escaped the squeeze of the Miami defense and averaged 4.9 yards per play, the wrong type of rarity for a Gus Malzahn offense. Outside of the turnovers, FSU’s inability to move the ball down the field, while the Hurricanes converted on almost all of their shots led to the Noles’ demise against their rival.
Thought No. 2: Self-inflicted Seminoles
It is easy to see why the players in the Florida State locker room would go to war for Castellanos. Even after his most difficult game as a Seminole, the signal caller answered and owned up to his failures to the press.
“I told the guys that this is on me, this loss is on me. I apologized to the team. I apologize to this community, the alumni, the past players. This game is on me. I told the guys that I have to play better and I have to be better. I told them, ‘I promise you guys will start seeing better.’ We won in every margin.”
Except on the scoreboard. Once again, critical mishaps cost the Seminoles, and Castellanos’ first interception created a snowball effect of bad football. FSU threw a pick, was called for a 15-yard penalty, fumbled and took a sack on first down, all in the second quarter and all on a different drive in the second quarter. For the second week in a row, Norvell’s team coughed up the ball three teams, and this time, did not generate a turnover. While Miami was called for over 100 yards in penalties, their calls felt inconsequential, especially given the Noles’ margin for error.
The reason for the mistakes could be a multitude of reasons, none greater than the fact that two new coordinators are implementing new systems with brand-new players. Oddly, the team has taken a step backwards from their clean play against Alabama to begin the year, but that result continues to appear more like an outlier each week.
For now, the Seminoles cannot start winning until they stop losing, which falls on the coaches bringing me to my next point…
Thought No. 3: Sunday morning quarterback
There are two ways to judge the coaching issues on Saturday: one of them is playcalling, the other in-game decision-making.
The main in-game decision that the public pointed to after this game was Norvell’s decision to go for it on 4th and 8 in the second quarter, trailing 7-3. With the ball at the Miami 41, the head coach kept his offense on the field after three consecutive run plays. Castellanos fired a pick over the middle of the field, which he said was a result of getting hit and not being able to drive the ball to his target. Either way, the Hurricanes set up a long return, making the result worse than an arm punt, before scoring on the next play on a flea-flicker. I feel like it was the right decision, considering FSU was in true no man’s land and has found success on fourth down this year. However, Norvell’s answer postgame made it sound more like a coin flip rather than a targeted decision to go for it.
“That was on the brink of the thought process of where to go with that. We wanted to be aggressive, felt good about the opportunities that we could have there. We’ve been good in fourth-down situations, we’re a little outside of field goal range, potential to try and pin them (deep). Distance-wise, I felt good about what we could accomplish.”
“Those are decisions that are made over the course of the game when it comes to what you want to do and that was the one I made.”
Billy Napier would be proud of that answer.
Besides the questionable fourth-down call, the coordinators also had their ebbs and flows on Saturday. Tony White needed to stop the run and had to leave his corners 1-on-1 with the Miami receivers, leading to some of those explosive plays down the field. However, poor eye discipline and a lack of consistent pass rush are themes that are becoming trends in his defense. Offensively, FSU gained 70 yards on its opening drive, 188 in the fourth quarter, and 146 yards the rest of the game. Either due to personnel or an extra week to prepare, the Hurricanes set a hard edge and never let the Seminoles get in rhythm. In the third quarter, after halftime adjustments, Miami outscored FSU 14-0 with two touchdown drives on eight plays or more while Florida State punted and threw their second pick with their two drives. Mistakes fall on coaches, and with another laundry list of errors on Saturday, the pressure to get them fixed grows exponentially.
