- Location: Las Vegas, NV (Allegiant Stadium)
- Date/Time: Saturday, October 11th at 1:30 MT
- Television: CBS Sports Network
- Radio: KVOR AM 740, Colorado Springs
- Head-to-Head: Air Force leads the all-time series 18-7. They last played in 2023, and UNLV won 31-27 in Colorado Springs.
It’s a new week — and another chance for Air Force to lift off from what’s become a painfully long runway: a four-game losing skid. For the second straight season, the Falcons followed an opening-week win over an FCS foe with a spiral of setbacks. What once looked like a promising 2025 campaign now faces a hard landing, with a fifth straight loss looming unless Air Force can ground undefeated playoff contender UNLV.
For Troy Calhoun’s squad to avoid complete disaster, the defense has to find answers
— fast. That’s no small ask against a balanced and thriving UNLV offense. For context: going 0-4 in Mountain West play, falling out of the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy race, and being all but erased from bowl contention by midseason is the definition of disaster. And that’s exactly where Air Force will be if they drop a fifth straight game to playoff contending UNLV on Saturday.
Let’s be real, Dan Mullen’s Rebels are not the opponent that a struggling team wants to see on their calendar. But that is the circumstance that Air Force has created for themselves. The other side to that, it’s a great opportunity for a big win, and to turn their season around before back to back rivalry games against Wyoming and Army. Let’s take a look at how Air Force can beat the house in Vegas.
Exploit UNLV Where They Have Been Vulnerable
There aren’t many personnel match-ups that are going to favor Air Force in this game. That isn’t anything new though, as the Falcons are used to playing the underdog role when it comes to conventional player metrics. In that past, that hasn’t mattered much, as a largely successful team. Predominantly because of the last word in the sentence, TEAM. The collective parts that make up the team for Air Force are usually discipline, cohesive and relentless. But when they are not, it isn’t pretty. And so far this year, on defense in particular, it hasn’t been pretty.
So, for Troy Calhoun’s contingent to win this game, it will once again need to come on collective efforts. If you look at what UNLV has done thus far in 2025, it’s been pretty consistent and balanced. The area that Air Force will have to try and exploit is the Rebels defense. Sound like a familiar liability? Well, it should, because the Falcons know all too well what it’s like to surrender yards and points by the bunch.
Dan Mullen’s team has been allowing a lot of yards (413 YPG) and first downs, while not being particularly good at getting to the quarterback (7 sacks) or exercising discipline being penalized for over 80 yards per game. Historically, Air Force teams have been at their best when they are running the ball effectively, chewing up large sums of clock while limiting opposing possessions. Things have been a little different this year, with a lot more big play capability leading to more quick strikes. The Falcons actually average more pass yards per game than UNLV on the year if that tells you anything. Despite the increased big plays, Air Force is still one of the nations leaders in rush yards, time of possession and third down conversions.
You can see where each team ranks in Conference and Nationally, in some of the statistical categories we mentioned. The Statistical Comparison comes courtesy of the United States Air Force Academies official Digital Game Preview.
PREDICTION
One thing that the Rebs don’t do is lose the turnover battle. With nine interceptions and four fumble recoveries, they have the nations second best turnover margin at +1.6 per game. Air Force cannot turn the ball over in a game that will already be an uphill battle. And we have to come clean on one of the statistics that may seem to favor the Falcons, and that is time of possession. Yes, this is a category that Troy Calhoun’s teams usually dominate. However, a lot of those time of possession numbers are largely inflated this year because opposing teams are scoring often, usually wasting little time.
Apart from a transfer portal laden roster that is loaded with talent on the UNLV sideline, there are a few other things that make an Air Force victory hard to see. While the offense has been outstanding with Liam Szarka under center, I worry that Air Force is relying on the Sophomore quarterback for too much. The fourth quarter attempted pitch that was swatted for a turnover last week is a microcosm of that worry. That play felt like a high risk play that was forced by a guy that knows his team needs to score each and every time they have the ball.
There are some really good players on the Air Force offense surrounding Szarka, but he is their leading rusher, and throwing the ball way more than we are used to seeing. And despite being the Mountain Wests top scoring offense, it’s all they have been able to do just to keep games competitive because of the struggles on defense. For all the areas that we previously noted UNLV being vulnerable on defense, Air Force is statistically worse in each of them. Significantly worse in a few of those categories.
At some point you want to believe improvements will come on defense for Brian Knorr’s unit. It hasn’t shown to be even in increments yet, unfortunately. And I’m not so sure a UNLV team that features the Conference’s leading rusher in Jai’Den Thomas is where I’d place my bets on a markedly improved defensive performance. Facing Aamaris Brown, the Conference’s leader in interceptions is also worth Szarka noting his whereabouts when putting the ball in the air.
At the end of the day, with improved defensive play, Air Force is going to be a threat to beat anyone so long as the offense continues at their pace. And Brian Knorr has earned the benefit of the doubt with an ability to bring along a defense. But I don’t see it this week, certainly not to the degree that it would require to beat a team that is in playoff contention. I think we are going to have to wait another week to get back into the win column, unfortunately. You can expect a very entertaining game again, similar to the display we got in Annapolis last week.
UNLV wins 38-28.
