With the NBA’s trade deadline fast approaching, so is the Lakers’ next chance to reshape their roster in Luka Dončić‘s image.
After an offseason that did little to clarify the team’s long-term outlook,
many pointed to this deadline and the upcoming summer as the transactional periods that would officially usher in the team’s new chapter. Whether by choice or necessity.
Five Lakers are currently on expiring deals and three more have player options. Among the few who can decide to spend another year in Los Angeles is Deandre Ayton.
The polarizing former No. 1 overall pick joined the team after reaching a buyout from the Portland Trail Blazers at the start of free agency. It was a decision that made sense for both parties.
For Ayton, the Lakers represented a chance for redemption after several years mired in mediocrity. He could be spoon-fed by three of the league’s best creators, play for a club with championship aspirations and be granted a spotlight to earn his next big contract in Los Angeles or elsewhere.
For the Lakers, Ayton addressed their clear need at center following Anthony Davis’ exit. Despite his baggage, Ayton remained talented, maintained off-court ties to Dončić, and most importantly, came at a bargain.
Through 44 games, the union has teetered but mostly been positive. The team sits just a half-game out of the four seed despite a deluge of injuries, with Ayton shoring up the center spot to an adequate level. And yet, little traction has ultimately been made for both sides’ ultimate goals.
Even with improved center play compared to their post-Dončić trade efforts last season, Ayton has not done enough to be seen as a long-term answer down low.
To his credit, Ayton has been one of the league’s most efficient centers on offense. He is currently posting his highest points per shot attempt of his career and is converting 66.2% of his two-point looks (85th percentile among bigs), which is even more impressive given nearly half (49%) of his shot attempts come in the midrange.
He has also benefited greatly from playing alongside Dončić. When the two have shared the floor, Ayton is shooting a tremendous 81% at the rim compared to just 69% when Dončić is on the bench.
While the raw results have been encouraging, there remains stylistic dissonance between the two that raises long-term concerns. Ayton is not the explosive vertical threat who can consistently capitalize on Dončić’s prolific lob throwing and lacks the motor to be a rim-running threat in transition. He also plays at a similar methodical pace to Dončić, which counterintuitively is not ideal for a star who thrives with a level of athletic juice around him.
On defense, Ayton has not been enough of a rim deterrent to help cover up for Dončić and the collective roster’s perimeter struggles.
Teams are currently shooting 71.5% at the rim against the Lakers this season in non-garbage time minutes. That is the second-worst mark in the league.
Although this should not rest solely on Ayton’s shoulders, individually, the positives he offers on that end have been mostly offset by the lapses and wavering effort. He is capable, but should not be expected to be the type of anchor needed to protect a future group built around Dončić and Austin Reaves.
Among the 24 centers who have defended at least 200 shots within six feet this season, Ayton ranks 13th in field-goal percentage allowed according to the league’s tracking data. Not bad, just not good enough.
Barring a dramatic uptick in production or helping lead a deep postseason run, it is looking increasingly more likely that the Lakers may prefer to find a new starting center. The issue is that it may be easier said than done.
The Lakers could be armed with up to $60 million in cap space to address the position. Some free agents the team may be interested in include: Isaiah Hartenstein, Nikola Vucevic, Mitchell Robinson, Robert Williams, Jalen Duren, Mark Williams and Walker Kessler.
While there are enticing options on that list, there are also hurdles in actually signing any. The Thunder, for example, holds a team option on Hartenstein. And Duren, Williams and Kessler are all restricted free agents, meaning their respective teams own the right to match any offer the Lakers may present.
It is not impossible that they can shake one of these names loose from their current situations. But in reality, the Lakers and Williams are probably not a potential fit following their trade debacle, and Duren and Kessler remain too valuable to their current organizations as players — and trade pieces — to be given up for nothing.
There are also question marks hanging over the bigs that the Lakers could sign outright. Vucevic would be an excellent pick-and-pop addition, but his age and defense would be far worse than the team’s current internal options.
Robinson and Williams fit the mold of centers that Dončić historically has meshed well with and possess more defensive talent than Ayton. Both, however, have been plagued by injuries and may make a team like the Lakers nervous about offering lucrative long-term deals.
If the free-agent class proves barren, the Lakers could then ultimately look at trading for their center of the future. And if no deal transpires by the deadline, the team will be equipped with more draft capital in the offseason to put together an attractive package for a center they like. This is where their aforementioned cap space could also prove useful in terms of absorbing a larger salary player in a deal.
As is the case with any road taken, there is the risk of potential opportunity cost. For example, trading for the likes of Bam Adebayo, Jarrett Allen or Ivica Zubac will cost most of, if not all, of the Lakers’ draft assets as well as take a chunk out of their cap space.
They would all make the team better from a positional perspective, but leave them without many resources to shore up the other holes on the roster.
The Lakers could try to split the difference and target a lower tier of center with one of their picks and find help on the wing with their remaining tools. But they must weigh if a big such as Nic Claxton is that much better than Ayton, considering it may also restrict them from doing other things elsewhere. This is worth noting because the upcoming wing and forward free-agent class is woof, to say the least.
This is ultimately the dilemma Rob Pelinka and the front office will face in the upcoming weeks and in the summer.
Are they better suited to use a similar package they offered previously for Williams to shore up a key position in the starting lineup for the foreseeable future? Or would running it back with a stopgap like Ayton and then using their assets to better construct the rest of the roster be more fruitful?
While not the popular decision, an Ayton reunion may not be the disaster that a large portion of the fanbase may view it as. At least in the short term and assuming the rest of the roster improves.
Despite his flaws, the Lakers have had a slightly positive net rating (+0.3) when Dončić and Ayton have shared the floor. And when you add Reaves to the mix, the trio have perfomed well, posting a net rating of +6.0.
Given his player’s option (only $8.1 million) Ayton also holds a large say in whether he is back. This is not a guarantee he would find himself back in the starting role or exempt him from being traded if he opts to, but considerable dominoes would need to fall for it not to happen.
It also remains to be seen how aggressive the Lakers will still be in looking for a center upgrade. Before the Ayton signing, the front office showed its hand and desperation with the botched Williams trade. Ayton’s play likely has not changed the calculation, but he may have done enough for them to focus their attention and assets elsewhere.
In an ideal world, the Lakers will employ a center who is better than Ayton by next season. A cornerstone that fit around and support Dončić and Reaves into the team’s next era.
But even with a boatload of cap space and several draft picks, finding the right big man may prove difficult for a franchise that has historically gotten them to fall into their laps.
All stats courtesy of Cleaning the Glass unless otherwise stated. You can follow Alex on Bluesky at @alexregla.bsky.social.
