The New York Giants square off with the Washington Commanders in a Week 15 matchup that could significantly impact their positioning in the 2026 NFL Draft; unfortunately, that’s what Giant fans have looked
forward to at this time of year in recent seasons. Washington was kind enough to join the Giants in the doldrums of the NFC East this season.
After a trip to the NFC Championship game last season, Washington has been battered by injuries and regression. The Giants currently hold the first overall pick in the draft with their 2-11 record, and Washington is 3-10, with one of their wins coming against the Giants in Week 1 (21-6). Quarterback Jayden Daniels was ruled out after returning last week from his devastating elbow injury. New York will face Marcus Mariota.
Something has to give, right? Washington enters on an eight-game losing streak, and the Giants are riding a seven-game skid of their own. The Giants are home favorites (-2.5) and the Over/Under is set at 46.5 points. Washington was shut out by Minnesota last week, 31-0.
Let’s look at the matchup between the Giants’ offense and the Commanders’ defense.
Washington’s statistics
Dan Quinn’s defense has regressed, and many opponents have exploited the lack of top-end talent. The Commanders’ defense allows 27.2 points per game, ranking them 28th in the NFL. They’re 30th in yards allowed, allowing 382.5 yards per game. Washington’s defense allows 135.5 yards on the ground, ranking them 29th in the league — the Giants’ defense is worse in all three of the categories above.
Washington allows 246.9 passing yards per game, ranking 30th in the league. The Giants are at 24th, with an average of 231.5 yards per game. Washington allows a 43.04% third-down percentage (25th in NFL) and a 65% red zone touchdown rate.
Joe Whitt Jr. is the defensive coordinator. The Commanders blitz on 23.5% of snaps, tied with the New York Giants for the 19th-highest in the league. The Commanders get pressure on 19.5% of their snaps. Washington has been plagued by missed tackles; they have 101 missed tackles on the season, which is the fifth most in the NFL.
The Washington defense is devoid of top end talent, but veteran linebacker Bobby Wagner continues to play at a high level. According to NFL Insights, Wagner has tackled the ball carrier on 24.1% of his run defense snaps this season, the second-highest in the NFL (minimum 150 run defense snaps), while missing on just 4.5% of his run tackle opportunities (seventh-lowest among linebackers, minimum 150 run defense snaps).
Wagner has a high 89.7 PFF grade that would be much higher if his coverage grade wasn’t so low (48.5); there’s possibly opportunity for the Giants to scheme mismatches against Wagner in man coverage with either tight end Theo Johnson or running back Tyrone Tracy Jr. Wagner leads the team with 39 STOPs.
Fellow linebacker, Frankie Luvu, has 24 STOPs. For reference, Brian Burns has 34 STOPs on the season and Bobby Okereke 31; Dru Phillips has 24. Jordan MaGee, a 24-year-old former Temple Owl, has earned more snaps over the last eight weeks.
Washington lacks a true number-one pass rusher. Jacob Martin leads the team with 30 pressures and 4.5 sacks. Thirty-six-year-old Von Miller leads the team in sacks with six and has recorded 28 pressures. Dorance Armstrong has contributed 22 pressures and 5.5 sacks. Interior defensive linemen Javon Kinlaw and Johnny Newton have also generated solid pressure up front—Kinlaw with 19 pressures and two sacks, and Newton with 17 pressures and a pair of sacks.
Safety Quan Martin continues to flash his hard-hitting ability, but he remains inconsistent in recognizing coverages and attacking appropriately. Darnell Savage, the former Packers’ safety, and Maryland Terrapin — shoutout Ed Valentine — is the rotational safety who joined Washington in Week 3. He plays in a Dane Belton like role in Quinn’s defense — a unit that uses a lot of three safety sub-packages.
Former cornerback Noah Igbinoghene also fills that role well and started against the Vikings. Jeremy Reaves and former Giants Antonio Hamilton Sr., work into the rotation as well. Will Harris is the veteran of the safety group; Harris started alongside Martin and Igbinoghene last week, so, again, a lot of multi-safety looks.
Mike Sainristil’s second season at cornerback isn’t as fruitful as his first. He has allowed a 73.9% catch rate, spliting time in the slot and outside at cornerback. Saintistil has assumed outside responsiblities since Marshon Lattimore’s torn ACL in Week 9.
Jonathan Jones starts opposite Sainristil. He allows a 63.2% catch rate. Rookie cornerback Tre Amos suffered a fractured Fibula against the Lions in Week 10 is will miss Week 15.
The matchup
Jaxson Dart has played well for a rookie in a turbulent situation, and he’s facing a defense that helped calm the waters around J.J. McCarthy. This is the second consecutive road game for Washington, which is counting the days down till the end of the season.
New York needs to look to exploit mismatches and attack Quinn’s defense with the run game if they dare to align in two-high shells — take what the defense gives you. And then hit them over the top with Darius Slayton, Theo Johnson, and Isaiah Hodgins if New York receives one-on-one looks outside. I hope the Giants ride the hot hand between Tracy and Devin Singletary as well.
NFL Insights has Dart with a 90+ passer rating in seven of his eight career starts. That is tied for the most such games with a rookie’s first eight career games since 1950, tied with Dan Marino in 1983. Dart must be smart and get down if impending hits threaten him; remaining healthy is still quite important, but the Giants best take care of business at home against this beat-up Washington team.
Final thoughts
The Giants did not benefit from their schedule this season, but they were still competitive in many of their losses. Now is the time to unload all of that frustration onto a lesser opponent. Out of the bye, the Giants should handle Washington. Giants, 28-17.
