This season, Arizona is poised to do something it has never done under Tommy Lloyd.
Start a freshman.
In fact, from the way it seems and should be the Cats are going to have two freshmen to open each game,
with the highly-ranked Koa Peat and Brayden Burries each looking to help lead the team while it navigates a challenging nonconference schedule before getting into an equally-tough Big 12 slate.
It’s a bold strategy, Cotton.
Questioning whether or not references from a movie that came out in 2004 and is older than the vast majority of the roster is fair, as is wondering if relying on freshmen — even those as highly-touted as Arizona’s — makes sense in today’s college basketball world.
While freshmen are flashy, experience seems to be the path to banners. And yet, while Arizona does have veterans in point guard Jaden Bradley, wing Anthony Dell’Orso and bigs Tobe Awaka and Mo Krivas and backup guard Evan Nelson, it’s apparent this team will only go as far as its second-ranked recruiting class can take it.
Does Lloyd know what he’s doing? Given his track record, probably.
On the basketball preview edition of the Wildcat Radio 2.0 podcast we chatted with Evan Miyakawa of EvanMiya.com. One of the most respected analytics people in the college hoops landscape, his system has Arizona ranked 7th in the country heading into the year.
That’s higher than where they are in the preseason AP poll and quite a bit higher than where other basketball experts place them.
Arizona’s head coach is the reason.
“Well I think before we even get into the roster, I think the last several years under Tommy Lloyd have shown that Arizona is one of the most consistent programs in the country in terms of kind of no matter what is on their roster, they’re going to perform well,” Miyakawa said. “They’re going to finish well in the conference. They’re going to get a good seat in the tournament and be set up well for their shot at making a postseason run.
“And so I think in my model, at least, Tommy Lloyd gets a lot of the benefit of the doubt in that particular situation because of how consistent he’s been.”
Indeed, Arizona has seen key players depart every season under Lloyd and yet every season up to this point has been successful by most reasonable metrics. His teams have won 33, 28, 27 and 24 games, winning conference and conference tournament championships while also getting to the NCAA tournament’s second weekend three times.
Only once has he had his leading scorer return for a second season, and if anyone had any doubts about his ability to coach up a roster last season should have put those to bed.
Nevertheless, Lloyd has never had to rely on freshmen the way he is poised to this season, which makes this upcoming campaign different, exciting, and another opportunity for Lloyd to show off his coaching chops.
That’s not to say this year’s team is without talent, freshmen or not. In the interview Miyakawa pointed out how the Cats’ depth is once again very strong, and that his system is conservative with predictions for freshmen and yet the numbers still have Arizona seventh going into the year.
So freshmen or not, no one will feel sorry for Lloyd because of what he has to work with.
Bradley is a rare senior point guard for Arizona, Awaka is one of the best rebounders in the country, Krivas was expected to be possibly Arizona’s best player last year before he got hurt and Dell’Orso is a role player who can stretch a defense with his outside shot. Other non-Peat and Burries freshmen include Dwayne Aristode and Ivan Kharchenkov, both of whom seem likely to contribute this season.
The team has size, length, athleticism. It’s got experience at the most important position on the floor and hopefully enough shooting to keep defenses honest. And if any of the freshmen are ready to be stars from Game 1?
Watch out, nets.
Every team looking to contend enters the season with some questions and at least a handful of if/thens. For Arizona, the question is if the freshmen can be relied on and perhaps even become focal points. If that happens, then there’s no reason to think the team cannot get through its daunting schedule and make a deep NCAA Tournament run.
Now this is Arizona and the odds of everything going smoothly are slim. Freshmen, no matter how talented, are likely to have some struggles and then there’s always the potential for injuries or other issues that can plague a team.
But as we look at the roster today, it is easy to get excited about the possibilities. And if you look at Arizona’s track record under Lloyd, there is ample reason to be confident that this team will be pretty dang good, and with some breaks good enough to still be playing five months from now.
