The Wisconsin Badgers have been quite impressive through five games, and they’ve gotten better week-by-week, most recently beating the Michigan State Spartans 31-3 at Camp Randall Stadium.
As a result, they’re 4-1 and 2-0 in conference play going into one of, if not the biggest game of the Luke Fickell: a road contest against the No. 12 UCLA Bruins.
UCLA has been on a heater, starting the season 5-0 with blowouts over Cal (won by 21), San Diego State (won by 18), and Maryland (won by 51) before upsetting
Oregon 17-15 on the road last week.
The Bruins are set to be without quarterback Nico Iamaleava after he suffered a serious knee injury last weekend, but they’re still a very complete team that can run the ball at a high level and play exceptional defense.
But when you look at the Badgers, the numbers really quantify how strong their start has been this season. When looking at adjusted EPA per play in FBS matchups, the Badgers are sixth in the country behind only Notre Dame, Alabama, LSU, Miami, and Ohio State.
They rank ahead of Texas, Indiana, UCLA (another impressive start), and Oklahoma, which round out the top 10.
Diving deeper into the numbers, the Badgers are eighth in adjusted EPA per play allowed, according to Sportsdataverse, and fifth in EPA per play allowed behind only Oklahoma, UCLA, Michigan, and FIU.
Wisconsin is allowing just 4.0 yards per play in FBS matchups, good for second in the country, while their success rate allowed is also a top-10 mark. The Badgers have been especially good in the air, ranking first in EPA allowed per dropback and second in yards allowed per dropback. That’s important because they’re facing a rush offense that ranks second in yards per rush (6.7), fourth in EPA per rush (0.22), and 15th in rush success rate (49.5 percent) in the Bruins in FBS matchups.
Now, the Badgers haven’t been a pretty offensive team. Their rush success rate in FBS matchups ranks 130th in the country, although their pass success rate is up at 33rd. But their defense has been the anchor to this team, and could very well have to again on Saturday if Wisconsin is to pull off the upset on UCLA.
