This has been a wildly disappointing return to the playoffs for the Pittsburgh Penguins.
Not only are they down 2-0 to the Philadelphia Flyers after Monday night’s 3-0 loss, they have lost both games at home, now have to go on the road, and seem to be the team that is not ready for the playoff intensity or playoff style. That is a stunning development given the locker room they have, the experience they have, and given that they were simply the better team during the regular season.
None of that has
showed itself here.
The Flyers, to their credit, are putting on a defensive clinic through the first two games. They are controlling the neutral zone, blocking shots and closing off lanes in the defensive zone, not letting anybody get near the net and rendering the Penguins power play completely useless. It almost seems as if the Flyers have zero interest in trying to generate anything offensively for themselves and content to just wait for the Penguins to make a mistake and hand them an opportunity.
The Penguins seem happy to oblige. The two goals Philadelphia scored with a goalie in the net on Monday, for example, were the result of just brutal — and avoidable — mistakes by the Penguins.
The lack of offense is not just a lack of goals, but also a lack of chances itself. It feels like they are never in danger of scoring, whether it be during 5-on-5 play or on the power play.
Sure, they have put together a lot of extended shifts in the offensive zone. They have almost certainly won the territorial battle in terms of puck possession and offensive zone time. But it is not getting them anywhere. They finished Game 2 on Monday with a 73 percent expected goal share during 5-on-5 play. But they only actually generated 2.01 expected goals for themselves, and most of that came in the third period when they were were not only already trailing, but trailing by two goals. Philadelphia took its foot off the gas even more from an offensive perspective.
It has simply been a total power outage in terms of offense. For a team that had 12 different 15-goal scorers during the regular season, and was the third-highest scoring team in the NHL, and the highest-scoring team of the Sidney Crosby era, it is staggering.
Philadelphia is an excellent defensive team, and it has lived up to the hype in that regard. But should it be THIS good?
It is the perfect storm of the Flyers completely buying in to what Rick Tocchet wants them to do, and the Penguins repeatedly banging their heads against the wall. Which is something we have seen from this group in years past in the playoffs. Something has to give.
But what I really wanted to do is just see how these two games stack up to previous Penguins playoff games in the Crosby-Evgeni Malkin era. Where do they stack up in terms of offensive struggles, and in terms of pace?
I pulled data from Natural Stat Trick on every Penguins playoff game going back to the start of the 2007-08 season (as far back as their data goes) and just compared it all.
Including Games 1 and 2 of this series, the Penguins have played 187 playoff games over that stretch.
Some findings:
- Their 2.01 expected goals during 5-on-5 play in Game 2 rank 76h on the list, which is higher than I would have anticipated based on the eye test. Their 2.81 expected goals in all situations rank 96th. So … still not great. But also several games worse. About middle of the pack.
- Their 1.96 expected goals in all situations in Game 1 rank 163rd, while their 0.96 during 5-on-5 play in Game 1 ranked 178th.
- Game 1 was the truly dismal offensively showing, despite the closer score on the scoreboard. It was, by every objective measure, one of the worst offensive playoff games the Penguins have played in the Sidney Crosby era. Scoring chances, expected goals, high-danger scoring chances, shots on goal, attempted shots …. everything across the board was among the bottom-25 showings. A large portion of the games that were worse came during the 2008 and 2009 Stanley Cup Finals against the Detroit Red Wings, and that 2013 Eastern Conference Final against the Boston Bruins. It was that level of bad.
- Game 2, in some ways, was better, even if the scoreboard did not reflect. That was especially true during 5-on-5 play. The power play is what largely ruined Game 2, not only by failing to score or generate much in the way of opportunities, but also by giving up one of the ugliest and sloppiest shorthanded goals you could ever imagine seeing in a playoff game.
The other side of this is the reality that the Flyers themselves are not generating anything offensively. And I suspect a lot of that is by design. Probably most of it. They do not have the scoring depth the Penguins do, and are doing everything in their power to keep this series from opening up.
In Game 2, for example, the Penguins allowed just 0.72 expected goals during 5-on-5 play, a staggeringly low number. So low that it is the third-lowest number they have allowed in any playoff game since the 2007-08 playoffs. Third. Lowest.
Even in Game 1, the 1.44 they allowed during 5-on-5 play were 122nd, which is still an extremely good performance in terms of suppressing chances. The Flyers certainly had their opportunities, but they were a handful of rush chances off turnovers and not the result of sustained territorial dominance.
I am not saying the Penguins are playing well defensively or dominating defensively. That is not what I think those numbers reflect. I think they are more a reflection on how the Flyers are playing, and how they have successfully sucked the offense out of this series. It is a big part of what they have done all season. They are doing it as well as they have right now.
They have happily turned the series into a low-event rock fight.
In terms of total expected goals during 5-on-5 play, between both teams, these two games have ranked 158th and 174th out of every playoff game the Penguins have played since 2007 (187 games).
That is almost certainly exactly what Philadelphia wants.
The questions now become, 1) Can they keep doing it this well for a few more games, and 2) Will the Penguins pick up a few rocks of their own, or find a way to force the Flyers to play a style they do not want? Maybe getting on the road and having to play a road game will do them well. They have played well on the road all season. They need to find it again.
