After a game like this, I think it’s important to start with the big picture. There are only four teams with more wins than the Cubs. The Cubs are on pace for 90 wins. Deep breath and flush.
This loss doesn’t count extra and neither does Wednesday’s blowout win. Just two random, crazy games in a season full of crazy outcomes. First team in history to win by 15+ and then lose by 15+. Wacky.
Suffice is to say that the Cub defense isn’t a magic wand for David Peterson. Unsurprising for a guy who became
available on one for one swap for a prospect that wasn’t creating a lot of buzz. I don’t think this means that Peterson can’t help this Cub team, particularly while so much of its regularly scheduled pitching staff is inhabiting the injured list. If you thought he was some panacea, then today was sobering. If you thought he was another guy who can pitch an occasional really good game and might get some boost from a strong defense, then throw this game out. If you aren’t a really elite pitcher, odds are you aren’t getting away with your clunkers.
Unsurprisingly, the Cubs are a different team when they jump ahead early. We’re seeing a lot of that in Cub games in general. There is a lot of benefit to getting ahead early. That is the fun thing, even with the changes of the modern game. There is still an enormous benefit to having the better starting pitcher. There are more dynamics to the modern game the way it is played. A superb bullpen can steal a close game. A lousy bullpen can undo all of the hard work your starter did. To be fair, those things were always true, but they are amplified in the modern game because of just how many innings bullpens cover now.
All of the change in the game, and a three-run homer in the second, is still a sizable problem. Six runs over three is nearly insurmountable and the game was over after four. After the Cubs batted in the sixth, no play had any WPA. After the bottom of the fourth, no play was worth more than .001. Masyn Winn’s homer to make it 11-0 was that last play worth any real value at .010. And even that is very little value.
So basically, nothing to see here. Move along.
Three Positives:
- Pedro Ramirez came off the bench and had a triple and scored the only run.
- Alex Bregman had two hits and drove in that only run. One of the hits was a double.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong had a double before leaving this one early.
Game 88, July 3: Cardinals 17, Cubs 1 (49-39)
Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.
THREE HEROES:
- Superhero: Carson Kelly (.011). 1-4
- Hero: Seiya Suzuki (.006). 0-3, BB
- Sidekick: Pete Crow-Armstrong (.004). 1-3, 2B
THREE GOATS:
- Billy Goat: David Peterson (-.369). 3.2 IP, 23 BF, 9 H, 3 BB, 10 ER, 3 K (L 1-1)
- Goat: Ian Happ (-.043). 0-3
- Kid: Alex Bregman(-.027). 2-4, 2B, RBI
WPA Notes: Ramirez does finish fourth, but again there was basically no leverage by the time he gets in there. WPA registered 87 plays and 24 of them had a WPA score of .000.
WPA Play of the Game: Nathan Church’s three-run homer with two outs in the second. (.263)
Cubs Play of the Game: David Peterson struck out Jordan Walker with a runner on third and one out, the game scoreless in the first. (.057)
Cubs Player of the Game:
Game 87 Winner: Dansby Swanson received 168 out of 228 votes.
Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)
The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong +18
- Carson Kelly +14.5
- Ben Brown +13.5
- Trent Thornton +12.5
- Michael Busch +12
- Dansby Swanson -9
- Edward Cabrera/Seiya Suzuki -9.5
- Phil Maton -10
- Caleb Thielbar -13
Up Next: Game two of the three-game weekend set. Shōta Imanaga (5-6, 4.30) starts for the Cubs. He’s just 1-2 with a 5.67 over his last seven starts (39.2 IP). He was pretty good last time though, against the Padres to start this homestand. Kyle Leahy (6-4, 4.09) starts for the cardinals. He’s 1-1 with a 4.29 over his last seven (35.2). He was also good in his last one, a start against the Marlins in St. Louis. Leahy hasn’t started on the road since June 12 when he allowed four runs over five innings in Minnesota. He held the Cubs to one run over 4.1 innings back on May 30.
Win a game, keep some positive momentum going. Blah, blah, blah. Momentum. Starting pitching. You go we go Shōta, ok? Doesn’t have the same ring, but still true.
