Time for some random Pittsburgh Penguins thoughts because I have a lot on my mind, but none of it is probably enough for a full article on its own. There is a lot to discuss!
The biggest thing is just the Eastern Conference standings and the Stanley Cup Playoff race in general.
1. The Pittsburgh Penguins did themselves a big favor this week, and they got some big help
The Penguins started the week on Monday and Tuesday with back-to-back wins against the New York Islanders and Detroit Red Wings. They were not just big wins on the scoreboard, beating the Islanders 8-3 and the Red Wings 5-1.
They were statement wins. They were the Penguins two biggest games of the regular season, against teams directly competing with them for potential playoff spots and seeding, and they absolutely dominated both games and kicked the snot out of both of them. It was impressive. Combined with the help they received on the out-of-town scoreboard on Tuesday night, when literally every team around them and chasing them lost in regulation, it put the Penguins in a really good position.
They are three points ahead of the Islanders with a game-in-hand on them. They are four points ahead of the Columbus Blue Jackets. They currently have the tiebreaker on both teams. They are six points ahead of non-playoff teams Ottawa Senators, Detroit Red Wings, Philadelphia Flyers and Washington Capitals. Those are big cushions and a lot of breathing room when every team has between six and eight games remaining on their schedules.
From a percentage standpoint, the Penguins playoff odds by pretty much every model are over 94 percent.
But let’s look at it another way. In my view, if the Penguins win three more of their remaining seven games, I think they are in. It is possible that even two more wins does it for them. Let’s put some numbers on it. Here is a quick look at what every team behind the Penguins would need to do to finish ahead of them if the Penguins win between one and four more games.
Keep something in mind with this: In each scenario at least three teams, and at least two Metropolitan Division teams would have to finish ahead of them.
Keep something else in mind with this: Every team on that table plays at least one other team on the table. Some of them play a team on the table multiple times. There are games that teams are going to lose just based on that. It does not even get into the overall strength of schedule some of these teams have to play, including the Islanders and Blue Jackets.
The Penguins are not in yet. They still have some work to do. They have still put themselves in a good position. The start of this week was extremely important.
2. Kris Letang and Sam Girard hold a lot of keys for the Penguins
Perhaps the biggest development out of the two games to open this week is that the defense pairing of Kris Letang and Sam Girard seemed to finally start clicking a little bit. The Penguins have been consistent in sticking with them, perhaps frustratingly so, and finally got some pay-off with it. They played two of their best games on Monday and Tuesday and the numbers support that.
In the two games the pairing produced:
- A 3-0 goals advantage on the scoreboard when they were on the ice together during 5-on-5 play.
- A 64.06 percent expected goals share.
- A 57.1 percent scoring chance share.
- A 58.8 percent high-danger scoring chance share.
They also seemed to pass the eye test for really the first time since they have started playing together.
With the way Erik Karlsson is playing the Penguins have at least one outstanding defensive pair. It can not be overstated how important a second strong defensive pair can be. If these guys can figure it out and play well together, that changes a lot for the Penguins.
3. Give Stuart Skinner the chance to take the starting job
The goalie rotation has done its job. Without a clear No. 1 from the start they have mostly managed the situation, kept both guys fresh while also giving them consistent playing time, and put themselves in a good position. At some point, though, somebody is going to have to take the job and become the No. 1 guy. Right now it is looking like it should be Stuart Skinner. Not only because he has been the marginally better goalie recently, but also because Arturs Silovs is just really struggling right now.
Skinner was outstanding on Tuesday against Detroit and should have earned himself another start on Thursday. We know both goalies are going to play over the weekend due to the back-to-back situation, but for Thursday you need to give Skinner another chance to to show he deserves to get the primary playing time.
4. Elmer Soderblom is looking more impressive with each game
The Penguins trade deadline was a little quiet, only adding young forward Elmer Soderblom from the Detroit Red Wings for a third-round pick. It is the type of low-risk, potentially high-reward chance the Penguins have been taking recently and the early returns were a little mixed. At times you could see glimpses of why the Penguins would want to take a chance with him. At other times you could see glimpses of why the Red Wings were willing to give up on him for a third-round pick.
Over the past two games things have really come together for him. He already has more goals and points in a fraction of the games with Penguins than he had at the start of the season with the Red Wings. He is also really starting to look more comfortable and use his size. Even though he only recorded an assist on Tuesday against the Red Wings, I honestly thought he was one of their best players. He was everywhere. He was clearly trying to send a message to the Red Wings and seemed to be trying to score 1,000 goals. He was a physical force. He won fights for the puck along the walls. He controlled the puck. He created chances.
On Monday, he scored a huge goal to get them on the board and get things rolling offensively for them.
He is getting more impressive with each game, and he might even be starting to make an argument for himself ot stay in the lineup. I do not expect this trade to work out as well as, say, the Egor Chinakhov trade has. It still seems like there is at least a chance the Penguins may have found a useful player that can contribute for them.
