It’s been a bumpy January for Courtney Banghart and the UNC women’s basketball team. A fairly uncompetitive loss to Notre Dame capped off a 2-3 start to ACC play that definitively broke the illusion of this team being in the country’s top 12 like they were ranked in the preseason. That ranking was always a little high for a team with as many new contributors as this team was going to need, but they had played to it for a couple of months thanks to the emergence of Ciera Toomey and the kind of offensive
efficiency that we just haven’t seen in Courtney Banghart’s tenure.
They’ve picked themselves up since then, with four straight wins against Miami, Florida State, Georgia Tech, and Syracuse, but it hasn’t been all rosy. Only Syracuse out of those four teams is over .500 in league play, and that game featured the Heels giving up an 8-point lead in the last 3 minutes before locking in for overtime. Wins are definitely better than not-wins, but the performances have been scrappier than you’d like to see against teams in the bottom half of the conference. Then again, you don’t mind seeing a bit of scrappiness from any team, especially one as young as this one. Still, the fact remains that an offense that started the season as hot as anybody’s has gone cold since the calendar turned to 2026. Through games in November and December, the Tar Heels averaged better than 80 points a game, shooting 55% from 2-point range and 36.4% from outside the arc. In January, they’ve averaged just 68 points on 46% shooting on twos and 29% on threes. In a sick bit of irony, free-throw shooting has trended in the opposite way: a team that was among the nation’s worst, shooting 62.5% from the stripe until the new year, has made 76% of their free throws in 2026 — that’s not just better, that’s legitimately very good.
That level of offensive regression could have led to a much worse January than 5-2, but the UNC defense, which was already pretty dang good, has stepped up even further in classing Banghart fashion. The Heels are allowing a slightly lower eFG% (42.5% to 42.1%) against better competition in January compared to the 2025 portion of the season, and their three-point defense has been stifling, just allowing 27% of outside shots to go in. Ciera Toomey’s newfound rim protection (1.5 blocks per game) is allowing UNC’s perimeter defenders to play aggressively, and the whole operation works seamlessly. Indya Nivar is still averaging 3 of the team’s 10 steals per game, and Nyla Harris looks more comfortable than she did early in the season and is vacuuming rebounds like she was expected to when she originally committed to UNC out of the transfer portal: she averages 6.5 boards per game, which is decent, but that number has been 7.4 in January. A lot of that improvement has come on the defensive glass, which has helped UNC end defensive possessions more consistently. If the Heels can rediscover their offensive prowess from earlier in the season, this defensive improvement could make this a really scary team.
As far as individual players, I think Toomey deserves serious consideration for ACC Most Improved Player. The numbers tell part of the story (from 3.2 points, 2.2 rebounds, and 0.4 blocks on 40% shooting to 10.5/7.1/1.5 on 57%), but her evolution from an inconsistent-shooting stretch 4 who couldn’t really get physical against other post players into a genuine post anchor on both ends has been simply awesome to see. I’ve said it before, but this team had major questions in the post after Alyssa Ustby and Maria Gakdeng graduated, and those were only magnified with Blanca Thomas’ injury that kept her out to start the season. Toomey’s growth has almost completely erased those concerns. I thought early in the season that she might just be feasting against inferior competition, but she’s been just as productive in ACC play. The aforementioned Harris, joining her in the frontcourt, is now UNC’s leading scorer at 10.8 points per game on an efficient 56% from the field, including a 21-point, 11-rebound performance in that overtime win against Syracuse that powered her team to the win. And Lanie Grant has found a rhythm playing secondary ballhandler and off-ball sniper to both Reniya Kelly and Elina Aarnisalo, who have both had their ups and downs this season — Grant is averaging 10.4 points per game in the month of January, shooting 44% from three as well as being her team’s most reliable option at the free-throw line.
The Heels will get an opportunity to add a Quad 1 win to this win streak on Sunday, when they take the bus to Raleigh to take on N.C. State. State, like UNC, is just outside the top 25. Their last game was a two-point overtime win at Virginia, who hasn’t been great this year, but they’ve got some pretty impressive results this season, and this rivalry always brings out something extra for Wes Moore. Hopefully, in a new month, Banghart’s team can shake off those offensive cobwebs and match them.
