The Mariners are going to play for the American League Championship.
Those words spoken by Dave Niehaus three decades ago ushered in a new era of baseball in Seattle. Fittingly, Rick Rizz echoed that same
sentence in his call of Jorge Polanco’s game-winning hit to end the 15 inning marathon on Friday night. The Mariners were pushed to the absolute brink by the Tigers, matched hit for hit, strikeout for strikeout. In the end, it took a historic effort from all corners of the roster to keep the magic going: Leo Rivas! Logan Gilbert and Luis Castillo out of the pen! Josh Naylor! Jorge Polanco! Humpy! The M’s exorcised the ghosts of their Game 1 extra-innings loss a week ago and the excruciating 18-inning loss in the 2022 ALDS. Their reward? A date with the Toronto Blue Jays.
The Mariners are going to play for the American League Championship.
As of publication, FanGraphs has not posted the ZiPS game-by-game odds for the ALCS. This article will be updated with game odds as soon as they’re available.
The Blue Jays cruised past the Yankees in four games in their Division Series. Those two teams had finished the regular season with identical 94-68 records — best in the AL — and the Jays only took the AL East crown thanks to the head-to-head tiebreaker. Despite a seemingly even matchup on paper, Toronto very much looked like the better team in their second-round battle. An offense that had looked rather listless in September awoke to score 34 runs in four games, blowing New York out in the first two games of the series. The final two games of the ALDS weren’t as lopsided, but the Blue Jays emerged victorious in a gritty Game 4
Toronto entered the postseason with a battered roster and number of hurdles to overcome. Moving past the Yankees cleared a big obstacle in their path, but there are still a number of lingering unanswered questions, the biggest being the availability of Bo Bichette. The Jays’ star shortstop has been sidelined since September 6 with a knee injury. He has been working hard to get back up to speed for the playoffs, but he’s still not running at full speed. The team is optimistic he’ll be available for the ALCS, but I suspect he’ll be limited to DHing duty. The other big question is who will be lined up to start behind Kevin Gausman, Trey Yesavage, and Shane Bieber. The longer seven-game series requires a fourth starter and both Max Scherzer and Chris Bassitt were left off Toronto’s ALDS roster. It’s possible the Jays will stick with their ALDS plan, going with a bullpen game in Game 4, but the off day schedule will make that a little tricky since Game 4 falls in the middle of a three day stretch in Seattle.
The Blue Jays are one of the very few teams with recent postseason history against the Mariners. They’ll be looking for some revenge for that 2022 Wild Card series sweep in Toronto. The Jays haven’t been to the World Series since 1993 and are making their first appearance in the ALCS since 2016. The Mariners have famously never appeared in the World Series and are playing the ALCS for the first time since 2001. This should be a fantastic battle between two equally matched ballclubs.
The Blue Jays finished the season as a top five offense by wRC+, a skosh behind the Mariners. They put the ball in play and don’t strikeout, and their contact quality is solid (and perhaps improving). It’s a great collection of hitters. But where the Mariners sold out their the defense for a few more runs, the Blue Jays managed to do both well, finishing as the best fielding team in MLB, according to Baseball Savant.
This well-rounded nature doesn’t necessarily apply to their top batters. Designated hitter George Springer lead the Blue Jays with a 166 wRC+ (third in MLB) in something of a miraculous rebound year at age 35. As Mike Petriello outlined in July, Springer seems to have prioritized working counts and taking his A-swing, rather than simply putting the ball in play. And he’s only gotten better since then: his 210 wRC+ in the second half is best in MLB. While Springer rarely plays the field these days, he’s maintained the strong base running that made him an all-around pest for years in Houston.
Then there’s Vladimir Guerrero Jr., the half-a-billionaire first baseman and face of the Blue Jays. Guerrero’s career is somewhat tricky to parse. He’s been a top 15 hitter since he debuted in 2019, but there’s a sense he’s often left something on the table, with elite exit velocities not quite aligning with his sub-30 homer seasons (he hit just 23 this year). Baseball Savant recently gave us insight as to why: Guerrero has the lowest average attack angle in MLB, partially explaining his proclivity for hard grounders and low liners over towering homers. That hasn’t stopped him. With exceptional abilities to draw walks, avoid strikeouts and spray hard contact all over the field, Guerrero finished 2025 as a top 15 hitter once again.
As Jake mentioned in the intro, the Blue Jays could be without their 1c in Bo Bichette, who is working back from a knee injury. Bichette posted a career best 134 wRC+ in 2025, in what felt like a do-or-die contract year after a dreadful 2024. He seemed to perfect his free-swinging approach, lashing at anything near the plate and occasionally pulling a homer. It wasn’t all good, however, as he was the worst defensive shortstop in MLB this season, while his sprint speed tanked. That’s to say, it wouldn’t be a huge loss for the Blue Jays if he’s on DH duty during the ALCS, though moving Springer back to the outfield might still be a net negative.
OK so a DH, a 1B and the worst defensive short stop in baseball. Where are the Blue Jays finding this top ranked defense? Well, largely behind home plate. Alejandro Kirk finished as the second most valuable defensive player in MLB. He’s not only among the league’s best pitch framers but definitively the best catcher at blocking balls in the dirt. Add in a solid if not spectacular 116 wRC+, and Kirk was a top 25 position player in 2025. If there’s any solace for the Mariners, it’s that Kirk has merely an average arm, and teams have felt relatively comfortable running on him this season.
The rest of the Blue Jays lineup isn’t as great, but most of their players do at least one thing well. Daulton Varsho, Ernie Clement and Andrés Giménez are each among the game’s best fielders, with varying levels of success at the plate. Addison Barger has some pop (though has rarely found it in the second half). Davis Schneider draws a lot of walks and plays a lot of positions. And Anthony Santander is just a year removed from slugging 44 homers for Baltimore, despite an awful 2025 derailed by injury.
Probable Pitchers
Kevin Gausman bounced back from a rough year in 2024 to post another excellent season as the Blue Jays’ ace. His fastball-splitter combo was as effective as it’s been since his big breakout in 2020. He managed to locate his heater well while keeping his splitter below the zone, allowing him to generate both swings and misses and groundball contact. That two-pitch combo is extremely hard to square up when Gausman has it working well. In his Game 1 start during the ALDS, he limited the Yankees to just a single run in 5.2 innings. He gave up four hits and two walks while striking out three.
The 15 inning marathon on Friday night really screwed with the Mariners pitching plans for the ALCS. Both Logan Gilbert (2 IP, 34 pitches) and Luis Castillo (1.1 IP, 15 pitches) made relief appearances during extra innings, which throws off the team’s whole schedule with just a single day off before the next series starts up. And then there’s the question of Bryan Woo’s availability. He threw a bullpen session before Game 5 of the ALDS and came out of it feeling optimistic about his chances of making a start during the next round, but he’s probably unavailable for Game 1 after throwing on Friday. That means Bryce Miller will get the Game 1 start on short rest — he threw just 55 pitches in his start on Wednesday. I suspect it’ll be an abbreviated start like he had in Detroit with the bullpen picking up the slack.
Trey Yesavage had made just three big league starts at the end of September before taking the mound in Game 2 of the ALDS. One dominant start later and Yesavage had written his name into the history books. He struck out 11 Yankees over 5.1 scoreless, no-hit innings, becoming the franchise record holder for strikeouts in a postseason game. It’s been a meteoric rise for Yesavage this year; he started out the season in Single-A and rose through three minor league levels before making his major league debut on September 15. An extreme over-the-top delivery allows him to impart a ton of carry to his fastball and his slider often has screwball movement to his armside, rather than sweeping horizontal movement to his gloveside. His best pitch is a nasty splitter that has returned a 57.1% whiff rate during his four big league starts (including the postseason). His Game 2 start was a bit of a surprise — conventional wisdom assumed that Shane Bieber would have taken the mound in that game — but I’m sure the Blue Jays wanted to give Yesavage a comfortable start in Toronto rather than in a hostile environment in New York. That same thinking, along with his dominant performance last week, probably means he’ll take the ball in Game 2 of the ALCS as well.
The Mariners starter for Game 2 could have huge ramifications for the rest of the series as the starter in Game 2 would also be lined up to start Game 6. I think Castillo will take the ball on Monday since his 15 pitch outing on Friday shouldn’t have taxed his arm too much. It’s also possible Gilbert would be available to start in this game since Friday would have been his normal bullpen day between starts and he’d have five days of rest between his start in Detroit last Tuesday. I suppose it’ll come down to whoever bounces back from their relief outing quicker.
The Blue Jays acquired Shane Bieber at the trade deadline to bolster their rotation for a deep postseason run. He had blown out his elbow in April 2024 — in a start in Seattle no less — and was in the final stages of rehabbing from that injury when he was traded. He was activated off the IL in late August, though his return from Tommy John surgery was a bit of a mixed bag. His command has looked great and his 5.29 strikeout-to-walk ratio in seven starts was fantastic, but he really struggled with allowing too much hard contact. Opposing batters produced a huge 12.3% barrel rate and a 48.2% hard-hit rate against him, shooting his FIP nearly a run higher than his ERA. His start against the Yankees in Game 3 of the ALDS didn’t go so well either: three runs on five hits and a walk in just 2.2 innings.
By the time Game 3 rolls around and the Mariners return to Seattle, George Kirby would be ready to take his regular turn in the rotation on normal rest. I’m assuming that’s what the Mariners will want to do since it would also line Kirby up to start a decisive Game 7 if it came to that.
Here’s where things get a bit murky. Both the Blue Jays and Mariners have some difficult choices to make for Game 4. For Toronto, it comes down to whether or not they trust Max Scherzer or Chris Bassitt to make a key postseason start. The 40-year-old veteran slogged through an injury-hampered season, posting a 5.19 ERA and a 4.99 FIP in 17 starts. His ERA ballooned to 10.20 in September and he allowed at least four runs in five of his final six starts of the regular season. Meanwhile, Bassitt ended the season on the IL with a minor back injury. It seemed like he had recovered enough to play a role against the Yankees but the Blue Jays opted to leave him off the ALDS roster. I’m guessing Scherzer’s postseason experience will earn him a start in Game 4, but he’ll be on a very short leash with Bassitt ready to provide bulk innings if necessary.
As for the Mariners, by Thursday, you’d think that if Woo was available to pitch, this is where the M’s would want to use him. But Gilbert or Castillo — whichever didn’t start in Game 2 — would be rested and ready to go too. Ultimately, it comes down to how Woo is feeling and whether or not the team feels confident they’ll get a full start from him four weeks after his injury and without a rehab assignment.
Gausman would be rested and ready to take the ball in Game 5 for the Blue Jays. Depending on how things shake out in Game 2 and Game 4, this start could go to Woo, Gilbert, or Castillo for the Mariners.
If the series returns to Toronto, Yesavage would be lined up to make this start in Game 6. He’d be opposed by whichever Mariners starter pitched in Game 2.
If the pitching plan goes according to how I’ve lined it out above, a potentially decisive Game 7 would feature a pitching matchup of Bieber versus Kirby. But like we saw in Game 5 of the ALDS, if the series gets to this point, it’ll be all hands on deck for both teams to try and advance to the World Series.
