The Nick Caserio era has been fraught with draft day trades. His willingness to move up and down the draft board unnerves Texans fans each year who try to predict and project draft choices for the team (me).
An average of six offensive lineman are selected in the first round of the NFL Draft over the past decade. That’s one out of every five times selecting a lineman with their first pick. Based on current projections for the 2026 class, that would be:
- OT Francis Mauigoa – Miami
- OT Kadyn Proctor – Alabama
- OG Vega Ioane – Penn State
- OT Spencer Fano – Utah
- OT Caleb Lomu – Utah
- OT Monroe Freeling – Georgia
Last year, six went in the first 24 picks… which
forced the Texans at 25 to completely drop out of the first round. If the same thing
Much like last year, the first tier of offensive lineman should go off the board in the first 25 picks. When the board didn’t fall their way last year, Houston to trade out of the first round . Now, the Texans first selection at 28, and they cannot patiently wait and expect the ideal offensive lineman to fall to them.
The seven teams in front of them, San Francisco, Buffalo, Chicago, Cleveland, Philadelphia, LA Charers, and Pittsburgh all have offensive line needs. This tranche of teams won’t grant Houston the ability to select a lineman who is falling in the draft.
That leaves Houston with two options: trade up valuable draft capital to go get “their guy” before the run starts, or draft a player higher than his value.
So, what would it take for Houston to move up?
The best example comes from 2021 when the Kansas City Chiefs traded up from 29 to 21 to select CB Trent McDuffie (that worked out well for them). That trade went:
CHIEFS RECEIVE:
- Round 1, No 21: Trent McDuffie, CB
PATRIOTS RECEIVE:
- Round 1, No. 29: Cole Strange, OC
- Round 3, No. 94: Traded to Carolina; Matt Coral, QB
- Round 4, No. 121: Jack Jones, CB
Houston possesses the draft capital to execute a similar trade without emptying their coffers. The target would have to be Vega Ione, Spener Fano, or Kadyn Proctor. All three could play multiple available positions on the Texans offensive line.
If Houston wants to cut half the line, they can execute a trade similar to the Lions move up two years ago:
LIONS RECEIVE:
- Round 1, 2024: No. 24 — CB Terrion Arnold
- Round 7, 2025: Traded to KC: Brashard Smith, RB
COWBOYS RECEIVE:
- Round 1, 2024: No. 29 — OT Tyler Guyton
- Round 3, 2024: No. 73 — OG Cooper Beebe
I personally prefer the move up to 20. Go get the ideal offensive lineman and expend the draft capital to do so. The Texans are a couple of successful offensive lineman draft picks away from having a Super Bowl contending team. If that means they need to dump a third and fourth rounder to get one, it will be well worth it.
