As the initial events last Saturday in Lexington maxed out the NOT GREAT, BOB scale, I tried to repeat Lane Kiffin’s non-panic mantra of “it’s a long game.”
However, when Ole Miss’ first four possessions featured, in order, a punt, a missed field goal, an interception, and an interception where Austin Simmons got smashed, “it’s a long game” reeked of Frank Costanza’s SERENITY NOW.
To Ole Miss’ credit (more on that in a minute), they believed it and took control of the game in the second quarter. Such
a terrible start didn’t cost them thanks to a Kentucky offense incapable of punishing anyone, but it would be advisable to avoid a similar start in the weeks ahead.
Though Arkansas hasn’t played a team in their talent atmosphere, they have more offensive firepower than Kentucky. Defensively, Arkansas could still be bad, but Ole Miss does not want to be in a scenario where they’re playing from behind, and the opposing offense can cook.
What we know
Meltdown avoidance
Ole Miss spent the first 15 minutes of the game collecting 61 yards of offense, missing a field goal, and throwing two interceptions. That was a great recipe to be down 10-0 on the road one minute into the second quarter.
The vibes indicated things were ripe for a meltdown, especially given the overall lack of experience and youth of the team. Many an Ole Miss team has melted down in the face of far less terrible scenarios.
Instead of the game being over by halftime, Ole Miss stopped vomiting on themselves, which then allowed them to go work on Kentucky. It was the stuff of experienced teams who know they’re better and need to calm down.
Obviously, the win was the most important part of Saturday, but the belief in “it’s a long” game and lack of panic were exciting developments for a program who’s history is littered with mentally fragile teams.
A little too on the nose from the college football scriptwriters
Coming into the season, transfer kicker Lucas Carneiro was 6 for 6 on field goals of 50+ yards in his career. In the aforementioned dreadful first quarter, Carneiro’s first miss ever from 50+ yards came in an Ole Miss uniform.
In keeping with the theme of not panicking, Carneiro hit his next three attempts, including the kick to make it a two-score game with just over a minute left.
Kewan Lacy, hello
Lacy looks like the dynamic running back Ole Miss needed if they were going to avoid a repeat of last year’s offense. He’s got size, vision, and speed, and showed that he can be a workhorse late in a game where Kiffin did not want to throw another pass.
The early concern is whether this workload is sustainable over 7 more SEC games, plus if he’s needed at this level against Tulane or Washington State. In an ideal world, Ole Miss identifies a second running back who can help keep him fresh when November arrives.
Lacy also has this bad Ulysses Bentley-like habit of trying to cut back up the field in hopes of a bigger run when he has 2-4 yards guaranteed on his path to the outside. When he cuts back, he never gets those free yards. One of these days, a defender is going to get a helmet on the ball during his cutback and now there’s a ball on the ground.
The Kiffin Rubric
We looked at this for the first time last week, so let’s see how it went this week on offense.
- Win — Check
- Score 40+ points — No
- No turnovers — Buddy
- 5 yards/rush — 4.8 (no)
- 3rd down efficiency 50 percent or higher — 3 of 13 (awful)
- 12 explosive plays (12+ yard runs, 16+ yard passes) — 11 (6 runs, 5 passes)
- Red zone scoring 100 percent — 5 of 5 (yes)
- Red zone TD 70 percent — 3 of 5 (no; 60 percent)
- Penalties (1 in 33 plays; 3 percent) — Correct (2 in 72 plays, which is 2.8 percent)
- Win the 4th quarter — 3-3 (PUSH)
That comes out to 3-6-1, which is a Billy Brewer-ass record the year before or after he went to the Independence Bowl or Liberty Bowl.
What we kinda know
Austin Simmons’ health
Kiffin said after the game Simmons could’ve gone back in, which, hopped up on adrenaline, may have been true for like one play. Because if you were paying attention to Simmons on the final play* where he kneeled out the game, someone who could’ve gone back in and been fine doesn’t react like this when his left ankle gets stretched:
Not great!
*Why would Trinidad Chambliss, who just iced the game, not be called on to KNEEL IT OUT. It made no sense, other than to show, why yes, Austin Simmons is hurt.
The rumors are swirling, as rumors tend to do, about Simmons availability this week. Even if he does play, he certainly won’t be 100 percent.
Which means the question is whether an injured Simmons a better option than Chambliss, who was also dealing with an injury (according to Kiffin) against Georgia State. It feels like they see if Simmons can at least go in warm-ups on Saturday and make the call then.
Offensive line, maybe?
Saturday was a rough start for the fellas up front, as they couldn’t do much right. With no run game and a quarterback panicking that his offensive line couldn’t protect early, it was less than ideal times.
Then they settled in and were mostly fine. They weren’t ripping Kentucky apart, but whenever you run for 220 yards (48 carries) on an SEC defense, something is going right up front. For comparison, Ole Miss ran for 92 yards on 29 carries last year.
Ole Miss doesn’t need to be an elite running team, but that part of the offense can’t be a liability. Saturday was a good start in the effort to reprogram the offense.
What we don’t know
Defensive response to its first serious challenge
As noted above, Arkansas hasn’t played anyone capable of challenging them, but Taylen Green can play, and Bobby Petrino can coach a little bit. Green isn’t a natural runner in that it’s a feature of their offense, but he can torch defenses that lose contain and allow him to buy time to hit throws or take off and get whatever yards he can.
Can Ole Miss stay disciplined in their pass rush and not have edge rushers get too far up the field, which dissolves the pocket? Will Ole Miss’ overhauled secondary handle the challenge of the first quarterback in 2025 who can make them pay for average coverage or mistakes?
If Simmons can’t go, is a Trinidad Chambliss-led offense sustainable?
Chambliss looked great as the closer* against Kentucky, but that was a unique situation. Ole Miss was running 4-minute offense, which is not a sustainable offense to run for an entire game.
*Many are saying he’s the Mariano Rivera of college football.
If Chambliss is called upon, he’ll have to provide something in the passing game, which is a big ol’ TBD at this point. And that TBD is not on him because he has not been asked to do anything else through two games.
