The Oregon Ducks (11-1) enter the playoffs heavily favored in a round 1 home matchup against the Sun Belt Conference Champions, James Madison (12-1). The winner of that game will face #4 Texas Tech (12-1) in the Orange Bowl in Miami, FL.
At the time of writing this article, FanDuel has given Texas Tech -130 odds to advance to the Semifinals. Oregon has -110 odds. Accounting for Oregon’s -2500 odds to make the quarterfinals (92.02%), Oregon’s probability to advance to the semifinals is roughly 46.9%.
This makes them a slight favorite in a matchup against Texas Tech.
To reach the Championship game, Oregon will have to beat one of #9 Alabama (10-3), #8 Oklahoma (10-2), or #1 Indiana (13-0). Alabama opens as a slight favorite (-1.5 spread) in what will be a battle of Oklahoma’s top-rated defense versus Alabama’s high-flying passing attack featuring wide receivers Ryan Williams and Germie Bernard. Indiana awaits the winner of that matchup.
Indiana is getting the best odds to advance at -310 (70.44%). Alabama’s odds to reach the semifinals are +420 (17.91%), while Oklahoma’s are +700 (11.65%). You can see a full breakdown of Oregon’s path to the semifinals and all semifinal scenarios below, based on the initial odds. Each path’s thickness corresponds to the probability. Disclaimer – This is not betting advice.
Who would you like to see Oregon face in a potential semifinal? Do you want a chance at revenge against Indiana? Would you prefer that Oregon’s secondary gets tested by Alabama’s passing attack in anticipation of an Ohio State Championship matchup? Or does Oregon’s offense getting crack at another elite defense in Oklahoma appeal to you most? Comment below.
