It’s a loaded week of Big 10 games. It starts Friday night with Nebraska traveling to the Twin Cities to take on Minnesota. It wraps up late on Saturday with Notre Dame hosting old rival USC. In between,
we get a total of nine Big 10 games, including all three top-10 teams in action. There are enough good games that one-sided games like Indiana-Michigan St and Ohio St-Wisconsin did not make it into the pick sheet.
As always, the odds posted are from SB Nation’s online betting partner Fan Duel. Check out the Fan Duel Sportsbook for more information.
Washington @ Michigan (-5.5)
How you handicap this game likely comes down to which numbers you trust and how much you trust them. The Husky defense grades out as above-average by SP+ and EPA metrics. It rates 16th best national in EPA/play against the rush. Having watched all the Husky games, how confident are you in their ability to stuff Justice Haynes? On the other side, Michigan profiles as one of the best defenses in the country- 8th in defensive EPA per play. However, they gave up 31 points in a lopsided loss to USC last week and 27 against a so-so Nebraska offense earlier in the season. They have put up impressive defensive numbers against one (or zero) dimensional offenses, which is not what the Huskies will bring to the table.
When you dig a little deeper into Washington’s defensive numbers, you can see where the problems arise. They are 111th in success rate on 3rd/4th downs, leading to being one of the worst teams in the country at giving up quality drives. Simply put, they just can’t get off the field. Michigan has a more diverse offense than last year, but they still like to grind out long drives. Unless Ryan Walters suddenly develops a lot more faith in his DBs to play single coverage and overloads the box and/or brings extra pressure, it just seems like the Michigan offensive line (28th best at pressure rate in passes, 5th best at Yards Before Contact on Runs) is going to establish a solid advantage.
I think the Dawgs have enough offensive firepower to keep the game close. The talent gap is smaller than it was a year ago when the Huskies pulled out an upset win at home. If this game were at Husky Stadium and at a friendlier start time, I would probably pick UW. With a long road trip and an early start, I have Michigan pulling out a close win.
Michigan 28 – Washington 24
Nebraska @ Minnesota (+6.5), Friday Game
The Gophers are 4-2 but their best win is probably a three-point home squeaker against mediocre Rutgers. Nebraska edged ahead of the likes of Illinois, Michigan, and UW to get the last spot in the AP top 25, but they don’t have a sterling resume, either. Surprisingly, the Gophers have not run the ball well this year, which is probably the best way to get at Nebraska’s defense. With defensive questions of their own, Dylan Raiola should be able to lead enough drives for Nebraska to put this one away.
Nebraska 28 – Minnesota 21
Penn St @ Iowa (-3.5)
Penn St is in a free fall and Kinnick Stadium is not the easiest place to turn things around. The year-to-date stats don’t tell us much because the Nittany Lions will play their first game without James Franklin and Drew Allar- Ethan Grunkemeyer will get his first start at QB. Iowa, as always, will try to run the ball and slow down the game. Penn St has been surprisingly average against the run this season. If that trend continues under interim coach Terry Smith, the Hawkeyes will take advantage.
Iowa 21 – Penn St 17
Oregon @ Rutgers (+14.5)
Penn St’s collapse and Oregon’s own loss to Indiana have forced a bit of a recalibration of the Ducks’ season so far. However, neither of those games showed significant problems in pass defense, which is the area Rutgers would need to exploit to pull off an upset. The long road trip gives some cause for concern, but the Rutgers defense is the cure for what ails QBs, so expect a big Dante Moore rebound after Indiana disoriented him and his line.
Oregon 38 – Rutgers 20
Maryland @ UCLA (-3.5)
The Terps’ offense has trended in the wrong direction lately. Despite 31 points against Nebraska last week, 14 came off of turnovers (one pick-6 and another short field after a turnover). The Bruins have averaged 40 PPG in two games since firing Deshaun Foster after averaging about 14 with him. A dedicated and productive ground game has been the biggest change. Maryland has a tougher defense than either of the teams UCLA has beaten. If Maryland’s receivers can clean up their drop issues, I think Maryland be a speed bump in UCLA’s road to redemption.
Maryland 23 – UCLA 21
USC @ Notre Dame (-7.5)
The Trojans love to pass the ball. The Irish love to run it. The opposite sides are both only ok against the opponent’s strength. USC is coming off a very good performance against a stylistically similar Michigan team. Riley has struggled in big road games with USC, so this game is either part of a trend or an opportunity to get the monkey off his back. Notre Dame has done a good job generating turnovers. If they win the turnover battle, they should win the game. The great home field environment could help them, as well.
Notre Dame 40 – USC 31
