It has been a rough season for the San Francisco Giants. In spite of the positives, the negatives have been so severe as to potentially cause some long-term damage on the field. Personally, I don’t think it’s possible for the Giants to have a “respectable” season no matter what they do, and that includes going 66-0 the rest of the way and winning the World Series, but I recognize that I’m in the minority. For most fans, there’s a version of this failed experiment that is the 2026 Giants that stumbles
or crawls its way to a finish that is notably less embarrassing than their play in the first part of the season.
They’re 41-55 coming out of the All-Star break. Since they’re unlikely to go 66-0 and win the World Series, what’s the final record that would make you say, “Wow, I didn’t think they’d wind up there after that terrible start.” Or even, “Yeah, that’s probably the best they could’ve done with a rookie manager and everyone still trying to figure out that new situation.” Some notes to get you in the right frame of mind:
- The Giants haven’t won 4 games in a row all season.
- They ended April 13-18, May 23-36, and June 35-50.
- Robbie Ray leads the rotation in innings pitched and is likely to be traded.
- At 97 IP, Landen Roupp is just 9.2 innings away from matching his season total of last season, which was just 0.2 innings below his professional high of just 107.1 IP (which he hit in 2022).
- Tyler Mahle is likely to be traded and is currently 5th in the rotation in terms of IP.
- Caleb Kilian and Erik Miller might be traded, JT Brubaker has rarely pitched in a pressure situation, and Keaton Winn is always just a pitch away from winding up back on the IL. The bullpen is likely to be Sam Hentges, Dylan Smith, and whatever they can coax out of Jason Foley.
- Luis Arraez, the most valuable player on the team, is likely to be traded.
If this list of negatives makes it difficult to actually conjure up a final result, I’ll add this note to help:
They’re 13-13 since Pride Night, and if they simply hold that .500 mark, they’ll go 33-33 and finish the season at 78-84. To me, that seems like it would be a pretty solid recovery and indicative of (1) a team that was projected to hover around .500 all season unless some events broke in their favor but (2) had a drag co-efficient of a new, inexperienced major league manager calling the shots. So, if you thought Tony Vitello might have a learning curve that cost the team in the realm of, say, 6-10 games while he sorted things out, a record of 78-84 would make sense. And if you looked at the way Zack & Buster cobbled together a bullpen, then 78-84 would seem like an especially lucky result.
And even with all those negatives, holding a .500 record the rest of the way seems plausible and maybe even probable. Sure, purging 40% of the rotation and a key lineup figure would hurt a lot, but it’s starting to sound a lot like the Giants won’t go full tilt on a rebuild, and so losing Arraez and Ray might be smoothed over by a combination of guys playing better (Matt Chapman when he returns, Willy Adames generally), some prospects contributing (Carson Whisenhunt), and some major league-ready players they get in trades helping out.
Since the beginning of June, the Giants’ offense is 8th in MLB (6th in the NL) with a 112 wRC+ (though, just 19th in runs scored) while their pitching has been valued at 18th (+2.2 fWAR). Again, removing Luis Arraez (144 wRC+ since June 1st) would not help the offense, but if this lineup has turned a corner overall, then losing him might not be so catastrophic. So, then it would come down to the trades they make and the pitching they get in return that could sort out the staff the rest of the way. The pitching is bad enough that, at this point, any additions are likely to improve it.
The Giants still have a relatively tough (for them, anyway) strength of schedule, with 6 remaining against the Dodgers, 3 against the Brewers, that makeup game against Atlanta in Atlanta, 6 against the surprising Cardinals, 3 against the Guardians, and 3 against the Pirates. But they also have to face a surging Tigers team (22-14 since June 1st), the so-so Astros (47-51), and the Reds, who are usually a tough matchup no matter the site of the series. Is .500 the rest of the way actually plausible or does it just sound like it?
Let’s run through the remaining schedule:
at Seattle (3 games) — The Giants have won 1 series in Seattle. It was in 1999. Prediction: 1-2
at Kansas City (3 games) — the Giants swept the Royals in Kauffman Stadium back in 2024 when they were in a heated playoff chase. That’s not the case this year for either team. Prediction: 1-2
vs. Angels (3 games) — a truly horrendous team, but the Giants are just 3-6 against them the past 3 seasons; and, this series will be before the trade deadline, meaning that the few good players on that roster likely to be traded will be showcased against the Giants. Prediction: 2-1
vs. the Brewers (3 games) — they’re 59-37 right now and 30-19 on the road. They are just 7-6 in July, though. Prediction: 1-2
at San Diego (4 games) — the final series before the trade deadline and despite the Padres’ struggles (48-48, 29-37 since May 1st, including the fewest runs in the sport scored since then) it’s likely that they won’t be sellers at the deadline. They, like the Giants, are just drawing too well. They have a new ownership group coming in, too. They’re just 3.5 games back of a Wild Card spot. The Padres have lost just 1 season series to the Giants this decade (2021, natch). Prediction: split?
at Texas (3 games) — Like the Mariners and Padres, the Rangers are one of those teams hovering around .500 all season. They’re 5-5 in July (-12 run differential) but 21-16 since June 1st. But their .500 home record (25-25) is surprising. They’re 16-14 in interleague, though, and their only setbacks there have been against the Reds (0-3) and Dodgers (1-2). Still, 2-4 against the Angels? I guess this one’s a coin toss. Prediction: 2-1
vs. Detroit (3 games) — The Tigers handled the Giants pretty easily last year in a sweep in Detroit and while it’s true that the 2026 version has struggled a lot, it’s still the case that they’re much, much, much (much?) better than the Giants. Their lineup features three All-Stars: Dillon Dingler, Kevin McGonigle, and Riley Greene, and an enviable rotation with Tarik Skubal, Framber Valdez, Casey Mize, and even Jack Flaherty, Keider Montero, and now Troy Melton. They are 17-29 on the road this season, though. Hmm… Prediction: 1-2
vs. Houston (3 games) — A tricky team. Are they buyers or sellers? Are they a “fake” .500 team? Well, I’ll just let this decide: they’re 10-17 in interleague this season with a -30 run differential. Prediction: 2-1
vs. Colorado (3 games) — Gosh, I hope this isn’t a tough series. Prediction: 3-0 (is this where the first 4-game winning streak happens???)
at Cleveland (3 games) — Patrick Bailey revenge series? Who cares, the Guardians have great pitching and they are good for a second-half run. Prediction: 0-3
at Boston (3 games) — The Red Sox look to be buyers at the deadline and even though their offense has struggled, they will get up to face the Giants’ weak pitching. Prediction: 1-2
vs. Cincinnati (3 games) — This team seems to be out of it. Prediction: 2-1
vs. Arizona (4 games) — The Giants are 1-8 against the Diamondbacks this season. I would expect this series to put the team out of its misery. Prediction: 1-3
at Atlanta (1 game) — I cannot fathom the Giants sweep. Prediction: 0-1
at Pittsburgh (3 games) — Will the Pirates fade down the stretch? That’s the big question. On the other hand, the Pirates are tied with the Nationals for the most runs scored in all of MLB (516), so, I think they will get a big kick out of kicking the Giants’ collective ass. Prediction: 1-2
at Mets (3 games) — This team will probably remake itself at the deadline and I wonder if they will be one of those teams that improve after retooling on the fly. Anyway, unless the Mets reacquire Jeff McNeil or Pete Alonso, I’m a bit more confident about the Giants facing the Mets. Then again, it’s a road series, and the Mets will still have Juan Soto (and Francisco Lindor, probably). Prediction 1-2
vs. St. Louis (3 games) — Another good road team (24-19, +40 run differential); however, this series will be the final leg of a 3-city, 9-game road trip for the Cardinals where the first two series are at Dodger Stadium followed by Coors Field. So, I’ll be a little bullish here. Prediction: 2-1
vs. San Diego (3 games) — Let’s just keep the good vibes going. Prediction: 2-1
at St. Louis (3 games) — Of course, the Cardinals will get their revenge. Prediction: 1-2
at Dodgers (3 games) — The Giants have played the Dodgers hard, but ending the season against them has, time and again, been disastrous. Prediction: 1-2
vs. Minnesota (3 games) — Will the Twins’ surprising season continue? They’ll have just come off a 4-game series against the Angels in Anaheim, but prior to that, they’ll have run a pretty remarkable gauntlet: 6 against the White Sox, 6 against the Tigers, 3 against the Guardians, and 3 against the Yankees. That 18-game stretch might be enough to short circuit their season and set them on a course to merely play out the string against the Giants. That’s the thinking I have to have in order to make this prediction: 2-1.
vs. Dodgers (3 games) — Since 2017, here is the Giants’ record versus the Dodgers in September: 11-27. For the sake of the rivalry, lets say Prediction: 1-2.
So, I can squint and see 30 wins the rest of the way, or 30-36, or 71-91, and that’s operating under the assumption that Luis Arraez and Robbie Ray are traded and that their replacements are capable and the rest of the roster plays at a level consistent with their recent run. Is that “respectable,” given that Buster Posey was brought in to put the franchise over the top rather than begin yet another rebuild? Would that stoke the hope that the future will be bright?
Yes, if some things break the Giants’ way later in the season, then it’s easy to imagine them netting a few more wins to get to 78-84, but maybe you, gentle reader, imagine something more ambitious. So, what say you? What’s a final record that sounds reasonable/plausible to you and also says, “Wow, that’s an impressive finish given their horrendous start?”
