The second 2022 first-round pick to debut for the Braves this season, Owen Murphy got less of a chance than JR Ritchie to make an impression, not making his debut until July 6 and getting just five appearances spanning 12 innings.
How Acquired
Murphy was the 16th overall selection in the 2022 MLB Draft with the Braves’ first first-round draft pick, 19 picks ahead of their selection of Ritchie in Competitive Balance Round A. The right-handed pitcher from Riverside, Illinois signed for $2.55 million, well below
the $3.41 million slot value, electing to pass on his commitment to Notre Dame.
What were the expectations?
Murphy was somewhat of a slow riser through the minors. He debuted in rookie-ball in 2022 but didn’t reach Double-A until 2026, in part because of Tommy John surgery in June 2024 which kept him out for most of the 2025 campaign. He was excellent upon his return, posting a 1.19 ERA, 2.29 FIP and 2.94 xFIP over seven starts and 30 1/3 innings between the FCL Braves and Rome in 2025, with 34 strikeouts and just six walks.
He started the season as Battery Power’s fourth-ranked prospect in the organization, and was getting fringy rotation regular grades (e.g., a 45+ FV from FanGraphs). That said, he wasn’t really thought of as a guy that could immediately jump in and help in 2026, as the general timeline saw him as a 2027-ish debut.
2026 Results
But, he made his debut in 2026 anyway, and it was a promotion that was at least partially driven by necessity. Martin Pérez was placed on the IL when he was hit by a comebacker amidst a(nother) cursed run of starter injury luck, and Murphy was the next guy up. Given those circumstances, it wasn’t clear what exactly the Braves should have expected from Murphy. But, as noted, they didn’t have too many options.
Prior to being called up, Murphy wasn’t exactly thriving in the minors, with a 4.44 ERA and 4.67 FIP across 16 starts (11 of them at Triple-A). With that said, he was certainly improving as the season went along, with an ERA and FIP in the low 3.00s in the even outings before his callup.
With all that said, major league debuts don’t get much more intense than Murphy’s, when he was tasked with pitching the 10th inning of a game against the Mets on July 6. He was unable to do get the job done, retiring the first two batters before hitting a batter and giving up a two-run double. The Braves got one run back in the bottom of the inning, but lost by a score of 7-6.
He was much better in his second appearance, delivering three perfect innings with three strikeouts. But over his final three outings spanning one July start and two September relief appearances, he gave up 16 hits and eight runs (seven earned) over eight innings.
The right-hander finished with a -0.3 fWAR, a 7.49 xERA, 6.93 FIP and 5.37 xFIP over 12 innings.
Murphy was a Triple-A All-Star, with a 3.07 ERA (66 ERA-), a 4.23 FIP (90 FIP-) and a strikeout percentage of 24.2% in Gwinnett.
What went right?
While walks have been an occasional problem throughout Murphy’s time in the organization, they were not his issue at the major league level this season. He walked just three batters in 12 innings for a 5.4 percent walk rate. He also had a 34.7% chase percentage, which is borderline elite. Those two things probably went hand-in-hand: Murphy pounded the zone, so he got a lot of swings, even at non-strikes.
His pitches also all showed pretty good shape — which is probably a necessity given his lack of velocity.
Murphy’s lone unequivocally good outing came when he threw three innings while the Braves were down three runs. He breezed through the Cardinal lineup, basically getting a mix of easy flies and strikeouts. Unfortunately, the Braves weren’t able to mount a comeback.
What went wrong?
While Murphy did miss quite a few bats, the contact against him was loud when he wasn’t inducing whiffs.
His barrel percentage (11.6 percent), average exit velocity (92.4 mph) and hard-hit percentage (48.8 percent) were all well above the major league averages. This led to a situation where his four-seamer had a .333 xwOBA-against, but his other three offerings were in the no-go zone of at least a .400 xwOBA-against.
A lot of this can be tied to a total lack of command, as all of his secondaries were pretty much all over the place, and the fastball was “in the zone” without Murphy showing any real ability to keep it out of scary areas. Even the slider, which he at least had the idea of consistently locating on a corner, ended up over the plate — and the curve’s location was just a big mess.
All of this culminated in a very high fly ball rate, and four homers in his last three outings, as batters found it exceedingly easy to pull the ball in the air on pretty much all of his offerings. That’s what Luis Torrens did to hit that game-winning double in Murphy’s MLB debut, and it just continued further from there.
2027 Outlook
The more Murphy pitched for the Braves, it became more clear he wasn’t quite ready to stick at the major league level.
That makes this offseason, with that experience under his belt, a critical one for his future. Assuming there is baseball in 2027, the state of the Braves’ pitching staff health will likely provide Murphy another opportunity to pitch at the major league level.
He turned 23 in September, so time isn’t anywhere close to running out yet. But after four of his first five major league appearances came out of the bullpen, this could be an offseason to define his role.
If his command gets to “playable,” his offspeed stuff can start missing more bats, and his walks stay down, could he be a reliever even if his fastball velocity isn’t elite for a right-handed pitcher? You don’t want to bail on him as a starter yet, especially after he’s been good at that role in the minor leagues since returning from Tommy John, but early returns in the majors weren’t great. The Braves might want to wait until he really shows an ability to dominate the minors before giving him another shot… but their hand might be forced by injuries, as has happened repeatedly over the last few years. Hopefully, Murphy has made some improvements by then.
