Miami Dolphins fans have enjoyed a post-win week that is always extra enjoyable when it comes against the Jets. But the time has come to put away that excitement and focus on another division opponent: The New England Patriots. For a few seasons, the Pats were a doormat, which they honestly deserve after 2 decades of dominance. But they rebounded last year with a shocking Super Bowl run. That run could maybe be explained by smoke and mirrors (schedule, backup QBs faced, etc.) but make no mistake,
the Pats are not a doormat right now. Does this mean the Dolphins have no chance? Absolutely not.
3 REASONS FOR HOPE
THE DOLPHINS ARE BACK HOME
This may seem like a cop-out reason. I have used it in previous home games and in fairness, playing at home is an advantage. But Joe Robbie Hard Rock Stadium has typically been a house of horrors for the Patriots. The Dolphins have hosted the Patriots 61 times in franchise history, including playoffs. The Pats have won in Miami 18 times. That’s a 0.295-win percentage. This isn’t simply a result of the Dolphins being good back in the 70s or when Dan Marino was under center. Since 2000 – the Belichick and Brady era up until the Vrabel era – the Pats have won in Miami 10 times in 26 contests (0.385-win percentage). Brady and the Pats won 9 of those, even including 2008 when Matt Cassel was playing for an injured Brady. In 2000, the Pats finished 5-11. They did not have a losing record again until 2020 when they went 7-9. In that span, the Pats averaged 12.2 wins every season, meaning an average of 3.8 losses per season. You could almost bank on one of those 4 annual losses to be against the Dolphins in Miami. Of course, the circumstances are different this season. The Dolphins are rebuilding and the Pats are coming off a SB run. On the surface, this seems like an easy W for the Pats. But in Miami… the Dolphins have as good a chance as any. The Pats just do not like it there.
THE OFFENSE MAY BE FIGURING THINGS OUT
I don’t want to make too much of the performance against the Jets. It is the Jets after all. But the Dolphins put up 377 yards at 5.5 yards per play against a stingy Jets defense that allows only 4.9 YPP (and that’s after the Dolphins). The Dolphins did it on the road too which is important because the offense has struggled on the road. In 2 home games, the Dolphins average 330 yards per game. In their 3 road games prior to week 7, the Dolphins averaged 247 total yards per game. That average was boosted by a 77-yard garbage time TD against the 49ers. The run game has been the engine driving the offense with Ollie Gordon II taking over for an injured De’Von Achane. He is averaging 4.7 YPC and has scored a TD in each of the last 4 games. Malik Willis is adding to that formula with some designed runs and key scrambles. Willis is 99 yards away from breaking Fiedler’s record for most rushing yards by a QB in a season for the franchise. But Willis also looked like a competent QB passing the ball against the Jets, which was a surprise to me. The Jets have a really good pass defense and given Willis’ struggles in prior games, I was expecting the worst. But he played really well. The Pats defense is decent against the run. They allow 3.9 YPC, which is tied for 12th best. They kept Josh Allen in check in their contest against the Bills with 5 attempts for 4 yards, so they can handle running QBs. But their pass defense is not as daunting, certainly not as good as the Jets statistically. While the Jets allow 6.7 YPA, the Pats are 20th at 7.4 YPA. They have a pressure percentage of 22.2%, which is 18th highest, but they only produce a hurry at a rate of 6%, which is 8th lowest. They blitz at a rate similar to the Jets (36.5 for NE, 36.4 for NYJ). But Miami possibly developed an answer for the blitz against the Jets. Perhaps that carries over. The Pats aren’t a bad defense by any means, but the matchup for Miami isn’t necessarily bad either.
THE PASS RUSH WILL GET HOME THIS WEEK
I have posted the tweets about Chop Robinson and NextGenStats has him tops in the league with a pressure rate of 23.4%. This graph shows that not only is the pressure rate high, but no one gets to the QB as fast as Chop. The issue is the sacks aren’t there. He’s close but that only counts in horseshoes, hand grenades, and nuclear bombs. This week, he’ll get a OT combo of Will Campbell and Morgan Moses. I don’t have access to all the fancy stats i.e. I ain’tagonna pay for it, but from what I can find, Campbell is having a good season. He’s not allowing pressures at a high rate (I’ve seen numbers like 5.6%). RT Morgan Moses on the other hand is parting the Red Sea for defenders, allowing a pressure rate of 14%. He will have his hands full with Robinson. The Pats have a good IOL in terms of pass protection with center Jared Wilson and guards Ben Brown and Alijah Vera-Tucker all ranked top 20 in pass block win rate. But both AVT and Brown were injured and missed time with injuries. Brown could be back, but AVT is now on injured reserve. Something has to give. I dislike making predictions, but I think Chop has his breakout game for this season with at least 2 sacks. BUT EVEN… if the pass rush doesn’t get home, the pressures could create some turnovers. The Pats are tied for the most INTS thrown with 8. In any case, I have a feeling the pass rush finally gets to it this week. It’s only a matter of time before it does.
3 REASONS FOR CONCERN
PASS DEFENSE
I don’t need to keep reminding you about the issues with Miami’s pass defense. Everyone knows about the awful completion percentage allowed. The Jets are a mid-level passing offense but still produced against the Dolphins. The Pats are a top 10 passing offense in both total yards, yards per game, yards per attempt, completion percentage, and passer rating. It’s not a question of whether the Pats passing game will produce, but rather how much they will produce. The Pats acquired AJ Brown from Philly and he will be an issue for whatever CB is facing him. But in the 3 games he has played so far, he only has 9 total catches on 20 targets. He may be due for a breakout game, but thus far, he has been quiet. The Dolphins did well against Garrett Wilson last week. The problem will come from RB Rhamondre Stevenson and – cover your eyes Dolphins – TE Hunter Henry. Stevenson is 3rd in targets with 24 and has 20 catches for 204 yards and a TD. He averages 9.4 yards after catch per reception with an average depth of target (ADOT) of 0.8 yards. He’s essentially getting a 1st down every time he catches the ball. Henry will be another TE thorn in the Dolphins’ flesh unless they get something figured out before Sunday. Henry is 2nd in targets with 31. He has 26 catches for 296 yards and a TD. He averaged 6.6 yards after catch per reception with an ADOT of 6 yards. The Pats spread out their targets fairly evenly, but they’ll most certainly attack the Dolphins with those 2 players. Don’t rule out rookie TE Eli Raridon either. He has 12 catches on 16 targets and 2 TDs this season. His target share has started going up. DeMario Douglas is the top target for the Pats with 34. He has 23 catches, 256 yards and 3 TDs. He works primarily in the slot thus will face rookie Chris Johnson most of the game. Johnson has played well in recent games, but he will be tested. Doubs and Hollins will also be factors. Summing it up, the Pats are going to throw the ball and have success. The real question is how much the Dolphins can limit the damage.
RUN DEFENSE
The Pats’ passing offense will be a problem, but they’ll present a problem on the ground also. The Pats are 8th in total rushing yards (854) and 11th in rushing yards per game (122.0). They are 22nd in rushing TDs with only 5, but they will get move the ball on the ground. The Dolphins are top ten in yards per carry allowed at 3.8 and tied for 4th in rushing TDs allowed with 4. But they are 16th in rushing yards allowed per game at 110.2. They did well against the 49ers and Chiefs – two top 10 teams in yards per game – limiting them to under 100 rushing yards. The Seahawks are the only other defense to keep Kenneth Walker III under 100 yards this season. But in the past 3 games, the Dolphins have allowed subpar rushing attacks to take advantage of them. The Vikings have gained some momentum on the ground after the Dolphins but were not a strong team prior. The Bengals and Jets average less than 100 rushing yards per game on the season, yet were able to gain over 100 yards against Miami. The Bengals only had one game over 100 rushing yards on the season before Miami and the 117 they gained against Miami is their best effort so far. I don’t know what the issue is, but the run defense is slipping. They also have to deal with Drake Maye, who is an effective runner from the QB position. They have only faced a couple of run threats from the QB spot this season. Patrick Mahomes went 1 for 1 yard against the Dolphins. Kyler Murray went 6 for 16, but 3 of those runs were kneeldowns that lost 5 yards. In meaningful game play, he ran 3 times for 21 yards. Maye has 38 attempts for 211 yards and 2 TDs. That’s just over 5 attempts per game. The Dolphins will have to play disciplined run defense against both the RBs and the QB to start plugging the leak.
THE VRABEL FACTOR
The Pats as an organization have not had that much success in Miami. They did win last season however, and one difference is Mike Vrabel. That was his only game against the Dolphins in Miami with New England. But the Dolphins have struggled against Vrabel when he was the coach of the Tennessee Titans. The Dolphins beat him in week 1 of 2018 in that infamous lightning delayed game that took nearly 4 hours. But his Titans squad beat the Dolphins soundly in Tennessee in 2021, ending the Dolphins season and sparking the confrontation between Tua and Flores that ultimately led to Flores’ dismissal. Then Vrabel brought a 4-8 Titans team into Miami on Monday night in 2023 to face the 9-3 Dolphins. Miami was fighting for a playoff spot, division title, and possibly the AFC’s top seed. After a sluggish game, the Dolphins went up 27-13 with 4:34 left in the game. Assuming everything else remained the same, a win here means the Dolphins finish 12-5, the most wins by the franchise since 1990, the first division title since 2008, and a home playoff game against a mid Pittsburgh team led by the Kenny Pickett/Mason Rudolph/Mitchell Trubisky trifecta that very likely would have been the Dolphins’ first playoff win since 2000. 27-13 with 4:34 left. Sigh… let’s leave the past in the past. It’s a small sample size, but I don’t like it. I feel that Vrabel has the Dolphins’ number. Maybe it goes back to his playing days where he had more career sacks against Miami than any other team he faced. Whatever it is, he is a smart HC that knows how to get his team ready to play. Now, one could argue that he faced much softer Miami teams in the past than what Miami will bring under Jeff Hafley. But Vrabel has the experience to win in the margins that Hafley doesn’t have yet.
I SAID WHAT I SAID
ESPN’s Matchup Predictor gives the Pats a 79.7% chance of winning. But as I mentioned last week, in this division, all bets are off. The Dolphins do have some injury issues with Kadyn Proctor and Juju Brents in concussion protocol and may not be available. It’s going to be a tough game for the Dolphins, especially if those two players miss the game. But there have been signs of improvement all season and they finally put it together for a win last week. Can they go a step further and get another win?
*In honor of Sir Patrick Stewart, here is one of the best music themes for a movie ever and in my opinion, the best Star Trek movie. I grew up watching The Next Generation everyday. I always dreamed of exploring the galaxy with Captain Picard and the crew. A big part of my childhood is now gone. Rest in peace, Captain.
