Teams’ home run totals are correlated with making the post-season, and home runs in the post season have an out-sized impact on post season success. The Astros’ extra base and home run power has been disappointing this season. In fact, the Astros’ rankings exhibit a declining trend in home runs. The Astros’ home run rankings since 2022 are shown below and are compared to 2025.
Astros’ HR Rank and Total HRs
2022 Rank: 4th Total HR: 214
2023 Rank: 7th Total HR: 222
2024 Rank: 10th Total HR: 190
2025 Rank:
17th Total HR: 159 Trended to Season End: 178
This is a pretty stark consecutive decline in home run rankings from 4th in the 2022 World Series season to the current 17th ranking. Going into this season, the Astros probably expected to maintain at least something similar to the 2024 ranking. The Astros traded home run hitters Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman, who combined for 49 homers in 2024, but the Astros acquired Isaac Paredes and Christian Walker, whom they could reasonably expect to hit more than 50 home runs.
To understand why the 2025 HR ranking is lower than expected, we can review the preseason projections for hitters who were expected to provide significant power. I have compared the Fangraphs HR projection at the start of the season to the actual HRs plus rest of season (ROS) projection.
Expected Home Runs
Projection / Actual Plus ROS / Difference
Alvarez 36 / 10 / -26
Walker 32 / 25 / -7
Paredes 25 / 19 / -6
Altuve 21 / 27 / +6
Diaz 21 / 20 / -1
Pena 19 / 17 / -2
Smith 15 / 9 / -6
Meyers 13 / 4 / -9
McCormick 10 / 1 / -9
Caratini 6 / 12 / +6
For these hitters, the expected actual plus ROS home run total is 54 homers less than the preseason projection. Injuries are the major cause of the Astros’ decline in home run ranking. Alvarez, Paredes,, and Meyers have missed significant time due to injury, and together they account for the loss of 41 home runs. If the injuries had not occurred, the Astros might be expected to hit 219 home runs, which would be similar to the 2022 season. The Alvarez injury, in particular, is responsible for most of the Astros’ home run disappointment this season.
Some degree of under performance is associated with the HR deficit, but it is mostly offset by hitters who have over performed. The primary under performance in HRs is related to Christian Walker (-7), Cam Smith (-6), Jeremy Pena (-2), and Chas McCormick (-9). Walker’s poor first couple of months accounts for his under performance, and Chas McCormick’s playing time plummeted due to poor offensive results. To this point, rookie Cam Smith hasn’t produced the home run power expected by the Astros. However, Caratini and Altuve have over performed to the tune of +12 home runs which partially compensates for the under performers.
In an effort to bolster the offense, the Astros traded for three hitters at the mid season deadline. The home runs hit by these three hitters as an Astros batter is shown below. The actuals and ROS projection can be summed to estimate the impact on the Astros.
Astros HRs / ROS HRs / Total
Correa 4 / 3 / 7
Urias 2 / 1 / 3
Sanchez 3 / 2 / 5
Based on their actual and projected HRs for the Astros, the three trade acquisitions add 15 home runs. One way of thinking about the trade acquisitions is that their home runs offset 35% of the home runs lost due to injury.
To summarize, the most significant cause of the Astros’ disappointing home run numbers is injury. The Astros made some mid season acquistions to compensate for injuries in the batting order, but this only offsets a fraction of the home runs which were lost due to injury. The good news is that both the trade acquisitions and most of the injured hitters should be available in the post season. Given the importance of home runs in making a run through the playoffs, this could allow the Astros to catch a second wind and catch fire in the playoffs. First, though, the Astros have to make it into the post season.
