EDITOR’S NOTE: At the time this Division Series posted, the Cubs had not yet revealed their roster for the series. When that’s announced there will be a separate post with the roster.
For the first time
in a decade, the Cubs will be facing a heavily-favored division rival in a Division Series.
That 2015 series against the Cardinals worked out all right. And the Cubs won the season series from the Brewers, including taking a hard-fought five-game set at Wrigley Field in August.
Which Brewers team is the real Brewers? The one that was 49-40 and four games behind the Cubs July 5? The team that then went on a 29-4 run that included winning streaks of 11 and 14 games? Or the team that was 19-21 after that 33-game run? (The Cubs were 23-17 in that same season-ending 40-game stretch.)
Guess we’ll find out over the next week.
For more on the Brewers, here’s Harrison Freuck, managing editor of our SB Nation Brewers site Brew Crew Ball.
Here we go! After a strange divisional battle this season that saw the Brewers take over the top spot from the Cubs in mid-July, it won’t matter that much as they’ll face each other in the postseason anyway! The familiarity of these two opponents at this point in the season will be interesting, and I truly have no idea what to expect. But here’s what I’m thinking:
The Brewers have “home-field advantage” for this one, though what exactly is “home-field advantage” in a series where the teams are roughly 90 miles apart? So I’d say that just about goes out the window here. Instead, let’s look at this one on paper.
Milwaukee’s offense went quiet in the second half of September, finishing the season in a similar way to how they started. The team also dealt with plenty of pitching injuries down the stretch, something they also dealt with early in the year. Sensing a pattern? But after five days off between the final regular season game and the NLDS, we’ll see if that can change those trends.
Offensively, the Crew has had a balanced attack for most of the year with Brice Turang, Sal Frelick, Andrew Vaughn, Christian Yelich, Jackson Chourio, and William Contreras slotting into the top of the order. Caleb Durbin, Joey Ortiz, Isaac Collins, Jake Bauers, Rhys Hoskins, Blake Perkins, Andruw Monasterio, and Danny Jansen also figured into things prominently down the stretch, while I’d assume speedy outfielder Brandon Lockridge will join the team for at least this series, assuming they don’t bring a full slate of pitchers to the roster.
On the pitching side, Brandon Woodruff has been declared out for this series. Beyond that, Jose Quintana is looking likely to return, and bullpen pieces like Trevor Megill and DL Hall are also back in the fold. With Freddy Peralta and Quinn Priester probably lined up to start the first two games in this series, the least of my concerns is Milwaukee’s pitching staff, but knowing how the postseason goes, I’ll probably look dumb in a few days.
I’m looking forward to this series, but also dreading another chance at an early exit. Cautiously optimistic as I’ve been every year since 2018, I’ll take the Brewers to win this series in four games behind some strong pitching and timely offense.
Fun facts
The Cubs never have played the Brewers in the postseason. The only other current National League teams they have not played are the Phillies and Reds. They never played the Astros when they were in the NL.
Number of series the Cubs have played vs. NL teams and their record in those series:
3: Dodgers (1-2)
2: Braves (1-1), Giants (1-1), Marlins (0-2), Padres (1-1)
1: Cardinals (1-0), Diamondbacks (0-1), Mets (0-1), Nationals (1-0), Pirates (1-0), Rockies (0-1)
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The Cubs and Brewers split their six regular-season games at Milwaukee. In the first series, May 2-4, the Cubs won the first two games, 10-0 and 6-2, then lost the third, 4-0. In the second, July 28-30, the Cubs lost the first two, 8-4 and 9-3, then won the third, 10-3. So the Cubs outscored the Brewers, 33-26.
The Cubs won four straight series at Milwaukee in 2017-18. Since then, they have won only four, while losing 13 and splitting one. They won 19 games and lost 32, a winning percentage of just .373. In all games at Milwaukee, going back to 1998, the Cubs are 107-120, .471.
They are 31-41 in first games of series and 36-37 in second games. They won the first two in 15 series, split them in 37 and lost both in 20.
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At home, the Cubs are 119-110 vs. the Brewers, making their overall record in the rivalry 226-230. In those 256 games, the Cubs have outscored the Brewers by exactly two runs, 2,060 to 2,058.
…..
This will be the Cubs’ eighth Division Series. They have won four, including their last three, in 2015-17, vs. the Giants, Cardinals and Nationals. Their other win was in 2003 vs. the Braves. They lost in 1998 to the Braves, in 2007 to the Diamondbacks and in 2008 to the Dodgers.
The Cubs are 12-15 in all games of Division Series: 6-9 on the road and 6-6 at home.
(Courtesy BCB’s JohnW53)
Probable pitching matchups
Saturday: Matthew Boyd, LHP (14-8, 3.21 ERA, 1.091 WHIP, 3.65 FIP) vs. Freddy Peralta, RHP (17-6, 2.70 ERA, 1.075 WHIP, 3.65 FIP)
Monday: Shōta Imanaga, LHP (9-8, 3.73 ERA, 0.988 WHIP, 4.86 FIP) vs. Quinn Priester, RHP (13-3, 3.32 ERA, 1.239 WHIP, 4.01 FIP)
Wednesday: Jameson Taillon, RHP (11-7, 3.68 ERA, 1.057 WHIP, 4.66 FIP) vs. José Quintana, LHP (11-7, 3.96 ERA, 1.291 WHIP, 4.81 FIP)
Thursday (if necessary): TBD vs. TBD
Saturday (if necessary): TBD vs. TBD
Beyond Game 1, the matchups I’ve listed are speculative. For the Cubs, the pitchers noted would be in the same order as the Wild Card Series, though manager Craig Counsell hasn’t said anything, and if Imanaga does go in Game 2, an opener could be used again. For the Brewers, manager Pat Murphy noted this:
I’d presume the Brewers pitcher noted above who doesn’t go in Game 2 would start Game 3, though of course that could change. Pitcher numbers are from the 2025 regular season.
Times & TV channels
Saturday: 1:08 p.m. CT, TBS, streaming on HBO Max
Monday: 8:08 p.m. CT, TBS, truTV, streaming on HBO Max
Wednesday: 4:08 p.m. CT, TBS, truTV, streaming on HBO Max
Thursday (if necessary): 8:08 p.m. CT (6:08 if this is the only game Thursday), TBS, truTV, streaming on HBO Max
Saturday (if necessary): 3:38 p.m. CT (7:08 if this is the only game Saturday), TBS, truTV, streaming on HBO Max
TBS announcers: Alex Faust and Ron Darling with reporter Lauren Jbara.
As always, the games will be on radio via 670 The Score and the Cubs radio network with Pat Hughes and Ron Coomer.
Prediction
As was the case for the Cubs’ Wild Card Series against the Padres, these teams are pretty evenly matched. The Cubs won the season series seven games to six and outscored the Brewers 60-56 in the 13 games. The Brewers shut the Cubs out twice; the Cubs shut the Brewers out once. The Cubs won two blowouts (including the shutout) and the Brewers blew the Cubs out once. The teams split the six regular-season games played in Milwaukee.
The off days between Games 1 and 2 and Games 2 and 3 will provide help for both teams to keep their bullpens rested.
The Cubs offense has awakened over the last week and the pitching was good enough to shut down a good Padres team. I think they’ll do the same over the next week. Cubs in five.
Up next
If the Cubs win the series, they will face the winner of the Dodgers/Phillies Division Series in the NLCS.
If not… we’ll see them in 2026.
