Last time out, we talked about the Diamondbacks hitters who are arbitration eligible, as well as discussed the general payroll situation for Arizona, and how possible non-tender candidates would free up more money for use elsewhere on the roster. I’m not going to repeat that here – go check out the articles above if you want the basics of arbitration, etc. Here, I will instead concentrate on the pitchers who will be going through the same process for Arizona. It’s interesting to note that with one exception,
they are all bullpen arms. This might tend to make things a little more difficult, because of reliever volatility and the general lower cost.
As with the hitters, they will be listed in alphabetical order, along with their service time and MLBTR estimated cost for 2026.
John Curtiss (4.078): $1.2MM
Curtiss would be a good example of that volatility. He had TJ surgery in September 2021, missed all of the next season, and in 2023-24 was pretty bad, posting a 5.73 ERA over 22 innings for the Mets and Rockies. But he had a very solid season, with an ERA below four, and a FIP almost in line with that. It made him one of the better arms in the Arizona bullpen, comparable to Ryan Thompson and Jalen Beeks in both metrics. But is is sustainable? I do note that Curtiss, who debuted in 2017, is still not deep in the arbitration process, which is testament to his overall status as a fringe reliever over the last nine seasons.
Kevin Ginkel (5.033): $3MM
This time last year, it would have been a dumb question. In 2023-24, Ginkel had a 2.86 ERA, making him a top-20 reliever (min 100 IP). But he had a real nightmare of a season, with a 7.36 ERA across his 29 appearances. Some of it may have been bad luck, since his FIP was less than half that (3.64). A BABIP of .360, despite a low line-drive rate (18%, compared to MLB average 24%), would seem to back that up and make Ginkel a decent candidate for a bounceback campaign next year. Is it worth betting $3 million on Kevin returning to the form he showed before last season, especially considering his campaign ended in early August with a shoulder injury?
Kyle Nelson (3.081): $1MM
If Ginkel had a year to forget, Nelson will be hoping for an alien abduction to wipe the entire memory of both 2024 2025 from his consciousness. He had been fairly serviceable to that point, with an ERA+ of 101. But thoraci outlet surgery in April ended 2024, and after he returned in May, it felt like Kyle had entirely forgotten how to pitch. There wasn’t much sample size in the majors, but four walks to eleven batters is not a good indicator. The 42 games in Reno were more concerning, where he allowed 13 home-runs in only 33.2 innings. He’s not going to cost much, but might he end up a victim of the imminent 40-man roster crunch?
Ryne Nelson (3.020): $3.3MM
Much as with Gabriel Moreno on the position player side, this is an absolute no-brainer – possibly to an even greater extent. While we’re still waiting – with likely decreasing hope – for the Brandon Pfaadt breakout season, Nelson delivered everything we could have wanted and more. He was worth 3.4 bWAR, and it would probably have been more, had he been part of the regular rotation from the beginning, rather than game #64 – his ERA as a starter was 3.16. That’s over two runs better than the 2023 figure. There’s a case to be made, that if the season started today, Nelson would deserve to be Arizona’s Opening Day starter. $3.3 million? Bargain.
A.J. Puk (5.124): $3.3MM
This is a challenge, because Puk is on the shelf, having undergone surgery on June 21st. It is worth noting that this was “internal brace” procedure and not fully Tommy John, but you will almost certainly be paying his salary for no more than half of the season. We don’t even know how successful he will be on returning: there is often a ramp-up period before a pitchers becomes fully effective again. If we get pre-op Puk back, it’s going to be as good as a trade deadline deal for a top reliever. However, that’s an “if”, and there are a lot of steps between his current position on the rehab path, and taking the mound in the major-leagues. D’you feel lucky, punk? Well, do ya?
Ryan Thompson (5.095): $3.9MM
Finally, there’s Thompson. At one point, I would have been strongly against tendering him, because he seemed to have lost his abilities. In mid-May, he had an ERA of 7.50, and his FIP was comfortably above five too. However, he then allowed one earned run over his next 17 appearances, before the inevitable IL stint cost him the best part of two months. On his return, he had a 2.00 ERA over September, albeit in a small sample size of only nine innings. But given where that ERA was, ending the year at under four was undeniably impressive. If he sustains that later level of performance in 2026, he will be one of the better relievers in the Arizona ‘pen. But can he?
