The Day After the Day After…when the raw, immediate emotions from the aftermath of a game diminish into the realm of clarity and the proverbial (or literal) hangover no longer haunts the mind. With that, a review of Houston’s Bye Week:
Where does Houston stand vis-a-vis the league after the bye? While Houston took the week off, the chaos didn’t stop. That will likely continue when Houston gets back to their schedule. When they kick-off next Sunday in LA, they will be no better than 2.5 games back of the Jaguars,
possibly down 3.5 games. They still have three division games (all at home) left. As for a Wild Card, sitting 11th in the conference does not help their situation. They sit 2.5 games back of New England for the final spot, with Cleveland, Las Vegas and Baltimore still ahead of them. They have three remaining non-conference games, but all of those are on the road and in December/January. While they are a maddening 0-4 at home, they somehow have a winning road record at 2-1. Given that the remainder of the schedule is 6 road games/4 home games, that may not be the worst thing in the world. On the opposite end of the spectrum, Houston holds the 8th pick in the 2027 draft. Just based on numbers, Houston could remain in the draft top 10 if their struggles continue. If the franchise gets solid play from Stroud in spite of bad team play and decides to give him that second contract, it could make Houston game for some wheeling and dealing related to that draft pick.
The criticality of November: At 2-5, Houston finds themselves well back of the conference leaders. Still, there are 10 full games left. To be in legitimate position for a playoff berth, Houston will likely need at least double-digit wins. To get to the usual 10-7 record, Houston has to go 8-2. In particular, this squad can’t go any worse than 3-1 in November. Arguably, that will need to be 4-0. On one hand, this past week offered Houston one of the best schedule hands it could have been dealt. The LA Chargers are a league worse 0-7 and are as hard broke as any team in the league. The Cleveland Browns have the best record of the November slate at 5-3, but Watson’s play is falling off and they could possibly overlook the Texans, who will have a losing record when they go to Cleveland in two weeks. The Colts come to Houston, but they have been in fire-sale mode and might just be without long-time Texans’ nemesis Jonathan Taylor when they play late in the month. The calendar ends with a visit from the usually nightmarish Baltimore Ravens, but after this weekend, when they lost their QB1 and QB2 for significant time, they might be in a weakened state.
On the other hand, all of that relies on Houston playing to its potential and not surrendering the explosive plays like they have. How often have golden paths been paved with fool’s gold for this franchise? November takes on added significant due to those games being conference matchups, and upping that conference record is going to be critical for overcoming the slow start for the team if the playoffs are to happen.
Will the result on LA change anything for the Texans’ roster? A win means the team can still hold out hope for a run. A loss? It doesn’t mathematically eliminate the Texans, but for all intents and purposes, the team will be out of the running. That matchup will end under 48 hours from the trade deadline. Houston added Harrison and they likely aren’t done talking with other teams. However, if Houston loses, do they start off-loading players to try to recoup for the offseason? Houston hasn’t said as much, but especially if the squad can’t overcome the worst team in the league, that would force some tough discussions on the flight back. As it stands, Houston doesn’t have a lot of easily tradeable players. Sure, a player like Danielle Hunter would be on a lot of wish-lists, but how many teams could accommodate this contract and salary cap number? Maybe Xavier Hutchinson is traded not for an improvement, but for some draft capital for next season.
How much improvement can a bye really offer? In theory, a bye offers a chance to fix some issues. Yet teams only have a week. It is not like teams can engage in a full-up training camp and fix all the issues. Maybe they can throw in some new plays or adjust some facets of their strategy. Coaches can be fired and new personnel put it, but that doesn’t always spark the desired change. The desperation firings of Chris Palmer as OC in 2005 did nothing to help that hapless offense and the sacking of Bill O’Brien in 2020 did not salvage that season.
Could Houston get flexed out of their prime-time slots? The schedule-makers back-loaded the Texans’ primetime appearances, with a Week 11 Thursday Night game against the Colts, a Week 13 Sunday Night matchup against Pittsburgh, a Week 16 Christmas Eve duel against the Eagles and an Week 17 Monday Night game against the Packers. The Colts game is ineligible for flexing. The Christmas Eve game is also locked in, for better or worse. However, the Sunday Night Matchup at Pittsburgh and the Monday Night Game against Green Bay can get flexed. The league would need to give 12 days’ notice and there would be a lot of horse-trading going between the networks. Much depends on Houston remaining in the playoff mix. Pittsburgh and Green Bay rest in playoff position and have rather strong fanbases that help ratings. However, if Houston is playing out the string by Thanksgiving, look for one or both of those games to get moved. The Texans did have one scheduled Sunday Night Game in 2013 flexed to an early afternoon kickoff (their home game against the New England Patriots).
FUN WITH NUMBERS:
1-2: Houston’s record post-bye under Ryans. 2023 saw Houston exit a bye week only to lose an ugly matchup with a bad Panthers’ team on the road. 2024 saw the team return from a late bye to beat the Dolphins to clinch the division at home after a Colts’ loss later that day. Last season, Houston came off an earlier bye only to lose a tough Monday Night matchup at the eventual Super Bowl Champion’s home in Seattle.
.703: Houston’s post-bye winning percentage in the regular season during the Ryans’ regime: Remember the whole 8-2 target? Well, it might not completely be out of the norm for a Ryans’ squad. In 2023, the team exited it bye with that bad loss to Carolina but still finished the year 7-4. The late bye skews some of this, as Houston had a Week 14 bye before a 3-game stretch in 11 days, finished the year 2-2. Last season’s 9-game win streak did most of the lifting for a 10-2 finish.
Given that there were no games or major news of note good or bad for players, we’ll forgo awarding of game balls or declarations of idiocy. Those will resume next week.
The second part of the season starts in LA against the 0-7 Chargers. Kickoff is slated for 3:05 CST with coverage on CBS/Paramount+ (unless the game were [deservedly] flexed to local public access at 5:30 a.m. Sunday morning). See y’all there.
