Adam Peters’ retool of Washington’s offensive line has been widely discussed this offseason, as the addition of Laremy Tunsil and Josh Conerly, along with the transition of Brandon Coleman to guard, represent a significant upgrade to the protection of franchise quarterback Jayden Daniels. Less discussed is how these athletic additions enable Kliff Kingsbury and Anthony Lynn to execute their preferred run schemes and their commitment to improving the run game this season. This may seem like an odd
goal considering the Commanders offense ranked third in rushing in 2024 and did not spend significant resources in either free agency or the draft to upgrade the running back room this offseason. Adam Peters re-signed Jeremy McNichols on a minimum contract and tendered restricted free agent Chris Rodriguez while drafting Bill Merritt in the 7th round of a deep running back class.
However, the trade of last year’s starting running back, Brian Robinson, signals the coaching staff wants the running back room to maximize the blocking afforded by their revamped offensive line and recently extended John Bates. Brian Robinson was first on the team in rushing attempts last year with 187, and a number of those carries will be distributed across last year’s returning players and roster additions. So which player will lead the Washington Commanders in rushing this season?
While many decry fantasy football as irrelevant to actual football games, at its heart fantasy football analysts work to project statistics and production based on changing team rosters and coordinators. It would seem beneficial to include their insight in any evaluation of projected stats, so I will be using ESPN Fantasy Football to guide our look at Washington’s potential rushing leader in 2025. ESPN projected stats will be listed next to each player’s name reviewed below:
Jayden Daniels (147 attempts, 815 rushing yards, 8TDs)
Readers will note the headline specifically says “player” instead of “running back.” The reason is no conversation of Washington’s rushing attack is complete without discussing their quarterback. While the rushing total looks good, I don’t believe the coaching staff would be happy with this number of attempts. Jayden recorded one more attempt than this last year, and I think the goal is to reduce the number in 2025 by leaning on the running back room. As one of his best assets, they still want Daniels to utilize his legs but may visualize his number of attempts reduced to a Josh Allen range (102 carries in 2024). Jayden averaged 6.0 yards per attempt last season, so this reduced number would still put him right around 600 yards for the season.
Jacory Croskey-Merritt (182 attempts, 777 rushing yards, 6 TDs)
The preseason hype is in full swing, and the expectations for Bill Merritt’s rookie season keep growing following Brian Robinson’s departure from the team. Not surprisingly, these numbers seem lofty to me for a college player with only limited college production and almost no experience in the passing game. I expect Bill to be worked in slowly as the season progresses the same way Dan Quinn’s staff integrated last year’s rookie class. The flaw in my reasoning is Bill’s home run ability. If he can reel off a couple of long runs, Merritt could rack up rushing yards in a hurry and earn more carries. In his 2023 season at New Mexico, he averaged 6.3 yards per attempt.
| Rushing | Receiving | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rk | Gcar | Gtm | Date | School | Opponent | Type | Result | Att | Yds | Y/A | TD | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | |
| 1 | 1 | 1 | 2023-09-02 | New Mexico | @ | Texas A&M | REG (Non-Conf) | L 10-52 | 11 | 50 | 4.5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 2 | 2 | 2023-09-09 | New Mexico | Tennessee Tech | REG (Non-Conf) | W 56-10 | 12 | 162 | 13.5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 3 | 2023-09-16 | New Mexico | New Mexico State | REG (Non-Conf) | L 17-27 | 16 | 83 | 5.2 | 1 | 1 | 31 | 31.0 | 0 | |
| 4 | 4 | 4 | 2023-09-23 | New Mexico | @ | Massachusetts | REG (Non-Conf) | W 34-31 (OT) | 9 | 33 | 3.7 | 2 | 1 | 17 | 17.0 | 0 |
| 5 | 5 | 5 | 2023-09-30 | New Mexico | @ | Wyoming | REG (Conf) | L 26-35 | 15 | 103 | 6.9 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 7.5 | 0 |
| 6 | 6 | 6 | 2023-10-14 | New Mexico | San Jose State | REG (Conf) | L 24-52 | 17 | 68 | 4.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| 7 | 7 | 7 | 2023-10-21 | New Mexico | Hawaii | REG (Conf) | W 42-21 | 10 | 46 | 4.6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| 8 | 8 | 8 | 2023-10-28 | New Mexico | @ | Nevada | REG (Conf) | L 24-34 | 11 | 44 | 4.0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
| 9 | 9 | 9 | 2023-11-04 | New Mexico | Nevada-Las Vegas | REG (Conf) | L 14-56 | 21 | 86 | 4.1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 | |
| 10 | 10 | 10 | 2023-11-11 | New Mexico | @ | Boise State | REG (Conf) | L 14-42 | 15 | 73 | 4.9 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| 11 | 11 | 11 | 2023-11-18 | New Mexico | @ | Fresno State | REG (Conf) | W 25-17 | 21 | 209 | 10.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 12 | 12 | 12 | 2023-11-24 | New Mexico | Utah State | REG (Conf) | L 41-44 (2OT) | 31 | 233 | 7.5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| 4-8 | 189 | 1190 | 6.3 | 17 | 7 | 72 | 10.3 | 1 | ||||||||
Assuming Bill averages around 4.5-5.0 yards per attempt in his first NFL season with the projected carries above, he could surpass Jayden Daniels total. One Hogs Haven writer made a bold prediction for these exact type of numbers.
Austin Ekeler (102 attempts, 445 yards, 5 TDs)
Ekeler’s season was severely limited due to injury last year. When on the field, Ekeler was an explosive piece of Washington’s backfield with a 4.8 rushing average which tied Bijan Robinson and Chuba Hubbard for 11th for running backs with a minimum of 50 rushing attempts. However, he did not stand out as a powerful back able to break tackles (3 broken on rushes) or create yards after contact, his 1.8 YAC/Att ranked 45 out of 70 backs. By far Washington’s best receiving back, you can still expect Anthony Lynn to get his former player plenty of work, but after multiple concussions and ankle injuries the days of Ekeler being a workhorse back should be over. I expect him to lead all backs in yards from scrimmage, but not be the rushing leader in 2025.
Chris Rodriguez, Jr. (33 attempts, 155 yards, 2 TDS)
Chris Rodriguez has gained plenty of momentum following reports of his improved work ethic and splashy 40-yard run on MNF. His strong preseason culminated with a spot on the 53-man roster. At 220-pounds, Rodriguez brings a power element to Washington’s run game. In contrast to Ekeler, CRod gained nearly twice as much yardage after contact (111 yds) than before contact (62 yds) on his limited carries and his 3.2 YAC/Att average was 3rd highest out 91 RBs. Despite running a 4.52 40-yard dash at his Pro Day, lack of speed was one of the bigger issues for Rodriguez early in his career due to a lack of conditioning. This deficiency kept him off special teams and prevented Chris from claiming a roster spot. Improved work ethic has him working in multiple phases of special teams this year which will help keep Rodriguez active on game days. I believe ESPN has under-projected his attempts for 2025.
Deebo Samuel (27 attempts, 121 yards, 2 TDS)
Deebo is no threat to lead the Commanders in rushing yards, but he needs to be included in the conversation because Samuel will absorb some carries this season. It is hard to know just how much Kliff Kingsbury will use him in this role, but Deebo has averaged 42 attempts per season over the course of his career so ESPN’s projections are probably too low again.
Jeremy McNichols (9 attempts, 38 yards)
I believe the coaching staff loves Jeremy McNichols. Not only do they want him on the roster, they want him active on game days for his special teams, pass-blocking ability, and versatility. Unfortunately, while that may mean more snaps, that does not put him in the discussion for the rushing leader. He was extremely effective in limited carries last year with 55 carries for 261 yards, 15 first downs, and 4 TDs and if pressed into service I think he would fill in admirably.
Verdict
I think the number of players in the mix for carries will keep Jayden Daniels as the team’s leading rusher, although his carries should decrease this season. The real question is which running back for the Commanders will have the most rushing yards. Based on Quinn’s comments in his Wednesday presser, I don’t think the coaching staff has any problem keeping 4 running backs active on game days now that Rodriguez is a part of special teams.
While all 4 running backs should play a role on game days, Bill Merritt is my pick to be the running back that leads the team in rushing yards. I know he was recently listed as 4th on the team’s depth chart, but you have to remember early in the season those are typically written to show preference to veteran players. The other important item to note is Bill was placed on the inactive list for the team’s final preseason game over Rodriguez. Chris has a chance to finish the season with more touchdowns, but I believe they want to utilize Bill’s burst and cutting ability, which the coaching staff has talked about all summer. Keep in mind, Merritt’s 10-yard split is a blazing 1.50, while CRod’s was on par with Brian Robinson’s 1.59. My opinion is the trade of Brian Robinson had less to do with envisioning Rodriguez as a starter and more with getting value out of a player that didn’t offer any special teams ability and had been surpassed on the back end of the depth chart. The coaching staff still wants a back with an explosive skill set to lead the team in 2025, and Bill Merritt will eventually be that player.
