Entering Tuesday’s series opener against the Marlins at Citizens Bank Park, the Phillies’ magic number to clinch a bye past the wild card round and the No. 2 seed is two. Any combination of Phils wins
and/or Dodgers losses that total two would mean Los Angeles playing in the wild card round and Philadelphia waiting until October 4 for the NLDS.
Despite last year’s early exit from the postseason as the No. 2 seed, the Phillies want that bye, and they are right to want it. It is better to need 11 wins for a world championship than 13, and in a best-of-three wild card series, one fluky play can send a lesser team to the next round and the better team home.
In the Marlins and Twins, the Phils’ final week should be a nice, soft landing heading into the postseason, an opportunity to clinch that bye and learn some things about a few players who are likely to play a major role in the Phils’ quest to win that World Series trophy that has eluded them so deftly these last three years.
Here are five players to pay particular attention to this week.
Aaron Nola
It’s hard to believe the Phillies are where they are with Aaron Nola posting a 6.46 ERA in 16 starts this season. In each of their first three playoff runs with this core, Nola has been the Game 2 starter every time, but not this year. While he’ll almost certainly be included on the NLDS roster to piggy-back a bad start by one of the three top lefties or if there’s an extra inning game that goes long, Nola won’t start a postseason game until Game 4 of the NLCS and World Series, if they get that far.
Maybe.
Nola will get one more start this week, and it would do him, and the team, a lot of good to see him go out there and look comfortable on the mound, avoid the big inning, and get guys out. His outing over the weekend in Arizona wasn’t awful. The first inning run he allowed was due to bad defense, and he gave up two runs in the 6th when he shouldn’t have been out there in the first place.
Nola is a twice-through-the-order pitcher, at least for now. Opponents are hitting .333/.385/.667 when they see him for a third time in a game this year, higher than the .269/.331/.408 slash line the first time through or the .266/.329/.484 slash line the second time through.
Orion Kerkering
The best word to describe Kerkering’s 2025 season is uneven. The second-year reliever, who many believed was this team’s closer of the future, is likely behind David Robertson in terms of high leverage, right-handed relievers entering October, thanks mainly to his inconsistency.
From May 9 through June 24, Kerkering did not allow a single earned run in 19 appearances and 16.2 innings, lowering his season ERA to 2.35 at the time. Since then, his ERA is 4.33 in 31 games and he’s allowed one earned run in each of his last three outings. He’s allowed multiple baserunners in six of his last 13 outings and has had just one, 1-2-3 inning since August 19. He’s inherited 31 runners and 14 have scored. His command is not there.
Kerkering still possesses swing-and-miss stuff, but has seen his K-rate drop from 28.8% a year ago to 23.7% this year, while his walk-rate has spiked, from 6.6% in 2024 to 10.1% this season. He’s generating fewer swings on pitches out of the strike zone (24.1%) than he did last year (29.2%), and fewer swinging strikes overall, 9.7% compared to 11.4% last year.
In 2024, his sweeper was dominant, allowing just a .226 average and .306 slugging percentage on it, with a 31.1% whiff rate. This year, the batting average is .241 with a .402 slugging percentage and a 23.2% whiff rate. Baseball Savant notes has less horizontal break (13.7 inches) this year than last year (16.2).
Matt Gelb’s article in The Athletic paints a picture of a frustrated reliever disappointed in his performance this season, and that’s understandable. The good news is there’s still time to get on track for October. A couple good outings this week could help his confidence.
Walker Buehler
No one has any idea what Buehler’s role with the Phillies will be in October. Could he potentially start a Game 4? Maybe. Could he be used as a piggy-back starter or long reliever in the playoffs? Most likely. Could he end up replacing Kerkering as a high leverage reliever if he has some success in the early rounds of the postseason? Possibly.
In his first two outings with the Phillies, Buehler has been fine, but not spectacular. He went five innings against the Royals and gave up just one run on five hits, but needed 90 pitches to do it. He pitched in relief of Taijuan Walker on Friday against the Diamondbacks and went 3.2 innings scoreless with two hits and two walks allowed.
No one expected much of Buehler as last year’s postseason began, and while he had a disastrous start in the NLDS against the Padres, he allowed no runs over 10 innings in the NLCS and World Series, ultimately saving the Game 5 clincher.
Will he have a similar impact with the Phils this year? We’ll see!
Trea Turner
Turner is reportedly doing very well as he aims to return to the lineup for the Phils’ final regular season series against Minnesota, and they hope they’ll see the same player who was forced from the lineup against the Marlins in Miami back on September 7. In the 22 games before he got injured, Turner was hitting .420/.448/.620 for an 1.068 OPS with three home runs, five doubles and three triples.
Harrison Bader did an outstanding job hitting leadoff in Turner’s absence, but it’s clear a red-hot Turner is an MVP candidate at the top of the lineup. Will Turner be rusty? And will he be able to secure the NL batting title? His .305 average leads the league, with Chicago’s Nico Hoerner six points behind, at .299.
A red-hot Trea hitting atop the lineup with a hot Harrison Bader hitting 5 or 6 makes this a lethal lineup for any team in October.
Bryce Harper
This has been a very weird Bryce Harper year. When he’s been in the lineup, he’s been very good. His .853 OPS is outstanding, he’s hit 27 home runs with an outside shot of reaching 30 for the fourth time as a Phillie, and he is in the top-10 in slugging percentage in the NL (.495). Again, it’s been a fine year.
But we have also had few moments of Harper Magic. Oh sure, one or two have sprung up from time to time over the second half, such as last week’s 8th inning solo shot against the Dodgers in Los Angeles that had him more fired up than we’ve seen him all year.
Harper has made a living out of coming through big in the postseason. It would be great to see him get hot over the final week of the season in preparation for what fans can only hope will be more postseason magic starting on October 4.
On my latest Hittin’ Season podcast, we previewed the final week of the season, discussed the state of the NL Wild Card race, and Nick Castellanos’ encounter with the press from last Friday.
