The news on Zach Eflin’s injury came back on Wednesday evening and it was as bad as you could have guessed from the get-go. The Orioles announced that Eflin had Tommy John surgery to repair the torn ulnar collateral ligament in his pitching elbow on Wednesday.
The only surprising thing about the announcement is that we skipped the step where we find out that Eflin has a torn UCL and soon will be getting Tommy John surgery. He was known to be flying to Dallas yesterday to have a second opinion consult
with one of the current commonly-used surgeons for TJ. Although they didn’t announce it yesterday, it’s clear that second opinion resulted in, “Let’s just get you scheduled tomorrow.”
This outcome was telegraphed when the Orioles placed Eflin on the 60-day injured list earlier this week, meaning it was clear to them he wouldn’t be back for a while. It was also telegraphed more or less from when he walked off the mound in his first start of the year. When a player throws a pitch, leaves with the trainer without doing any warm-up tosses, and the injury announcement is about his throwing elbow, that tends to end up here almost every time.
It’s a bummer of a development for Eflin and for the team. Eflin looked like he was back to a better version of himself with how he was pitching in spring training. It seemed like he might have been behind the back issues that caused him to miss a lot of time last season and pitch badly when he was not on the injured list. The Orioles re-signed Eflin for a $10 million contract for this season with a mutual option for 2027 because they were willing to bet on that comeback. It was working, at least until something entirely unrelated went wrong.
The mutual option for 2027 was set for $25 million. There’s no chance now that the Orioles exercise that option. Perhaps there’s a chance of renegotiating the contract, with Eflin getting a smaller guarantee for 2027 – let’s say in the $6-8 million range – and the Orioles getting a team option for 2028.
That depends on what Eflin wants and what the team wants also. There can be some benefit to the player to having continuity with one team for his rehab work. The Orioles may still want post-surgery Eflin to be around starting next June or July and if that’s the case, they may be willing to guarantee him a little money to get the first look after he’s back in action. On the other hand, maybe they don’t want to carry an injured guy on the 40-man roster through next offseason. There is no 60-day injured list outside of the season.
Another thing that’s not clear at this moment is how the Orioles intend to replace Eflin in the rotation over the long haul. Although many people, including me, long assumed that Dean Kremer would appear the first time there was an injury in the Orioles rotation, the O’s went out of their way to not call him back to the majors after Eflin went down.
A spot start went to Brandon Young on Monday and the next one will go to Cade Povich on Sunday. Young’s spot start went fine, as did Povich’s emergency long relief back on Sunday. We’ll see how he fares against a team that’s not the White Sox.
