The baseball calendar doesn’t let you enjoy much time off after the final out in the World Series is recorded, but after coming up just short of their first World Series title, the Rays have a lot of work to do to shore up their starting rotation.
Are they breaking up the band?
Nick Martinez and Freddy Peralta are headed to free agency. The Athletic’s Jim Bowden projects Martinez will get two years, $48 million. It’s unclear whether the Rays are interested in signing a 36 year old to that kind of deal, but there should be mutual
interest in a reunion.
Peralta seems to be out of the Rays price range, especially after an incredible finish to the season that saw him win AL Pitcher of the Month for September and ALCS MVP. He’s expected to sign for nine figures over several years, and it would take the largest free agent contract in franchise history to secure his services. Bowden projects five years, $140 million for Fastball Freddy.
Starters expected to return are Drew Rasmussen, Shane McClanahan, Ryan Pepiot, Griffin Jax, and Ian Seymour. That’s enough to field a five-man rotation, but the depth behind it is suspect. And that’s assuming all five are back.
Rasmussen is entering the final year of his contract extension, which will see him earn $20 million. History tells us the Rays will explore trading Rasmussen this offseason. Another extension is possible, but you have to imagine it would be a hefty one, with the right-hander being one year away from his first foray into free agency.
Jax and McClanahan are also entering their last year of team control. Jax successfully converted to starting this season, and McClanahan pitched 118 innings after not appearing in a game since 2023. Both have some trade value, but modest extensions could be in the cards as well.
I can’t imagine Rays go into 2027 with all three unless they are on new contracts.
Pepiot and Seymour both have multiple seasons left and are strong candidates to return. Pepiot missed the entire season however, and even if he starts the year healthy, there’s no guarantee he throws more than 150 innings.
Steven Matz is under contract for one more season and could be a candidate to return to the rotation, but he seems better suited for the bullpen at this point.
Who is on the farm?
Brody Hopkins, Ty Johnson, and Joe Boyle all started the year in AAA Durham as starters, but all saw significant time in the bullpen this season, with varying levels of success. It’s unclear what the Rays see for them in the future, but their immediate opportunities at the Major League level seem limited to the pen. The other starters from Durham are not seen as serious big league prospects, at least not yet.
The next closest starting pitching prospect with an MLB outlook is probably Santiago Suarez, who had a 4.50 ERA in 126 innings at AA this year. Jackson Baumeister should also be up in AAA to start the 2027 season, but seems far away from making an impact on the big league rotation.
The farm is not as well stocked in pitching as it seemed a year ago. Michael Forret, who had put together a strong season in AAA this year, was sent back to Baltimore as part of the Tyler Wells trade.
Who can the Rays get?
It’s safe to assume the Rays will spend somewhere around $20-30 million on free agent pitchers, like they did last offseason with Martinez and Matz.
They could bring Martinez back, or look at other veteran starters on the market like Dustin May, Jack Flaherty, or Clay Holmes.
Jeffrey Springs is a free agent after a disappointing season with the Athletics, but the Rays might see him as another swing man or spot starter similar to Matz. Maybe they can recapture the magic he found during his first stint with the team.
If they wanted to make a bigger splash for one starter on a short-term deal, 35-year-old Robbie Ray is available, but it could cost them upwards of $25 million for one season. That would seem to be a gamble, as Ray posted the worst strikeout and walk rates of any full season of his career.
Spending any more than that should trigger serious discussions about what it would take to resign Freddy Peralta, a well-respected vet that clearly loved both his short time with the Rays, and working with pitching coach Kyle Snyder. If Patrick Zalupski wants to show that these are not your father’s Rays, that would be a great way to do it.
With the lockout looming, the Rays may need to act quick to solve this problem.
