In this space we usually will look at the strengths and weaknesses of the upcoming opponent. Since the Houston Texans do not open their season until September 7th, we will have plenty of time for that later. However, I thought I would take the opportunity to talk about a source we rely heavily on for this feature and to look at a trade we can now funnel into the rearview mirror.
First, we will focus our attention on Pro Football Focus. PFF is a Chris Collensworth owned company that rates players based
on their performance. Not to totally geek out here, but we generally have two kinds of information when it comes to sports and performance. There is what I would call crowd sourced or fan sourced information and then there is the proprietary information teams use. We do not know the team sourced information, but it is almost certainly better than what we plebians get in the hinterlands.
In terms of fan sourced information, PFF can be very useful if we acknowledge its limitations. It comes down to someone watching tape and rating the player. Therefore, it is subject to the kinds of biases that any human sourced number is. So, I would never make a decision based totally on one source of information, but by and large it is in the ballpark most of the time.
Understanding PFF
PFF uses what we would call scouting grades for different skills. These grades are then combined into one overall grade. This isn’t universally true, but in 99 out of 100 cases the overall score would be somewhere between 20 and 90. At this point we can make some gross generalizations, so I end up using the general rule of thumb when categorizing players
- 20-50: this indicates a player that probably is at the end of the roster or in danger of being cut
- 50-60: this usually indicates a special teams player or a backup sort of player
- 60-70: this is a bottom tier starter or solid rotational player
- 70-80: this is either a solid starter all the way to a borderline Pro Bowl player
- 80-90: Pro Bowl performer
- 90+: likely the best player at his position
By virtue of the fact that we are looking at the top five players for each team, odds are good we will not see a player under 70 in PFF. If someone with a score under 70 appears as a top five player then that team is likely getting its doors blown off. Generally speaking, teams want to put their best players in a position to make more plays. So, when we see certain position groups dominating the top five then we get a clue as to what the strategy might be for that team.
Anatomy of a bad deal
There are good deals, bad deals, and catastrophic deals. Most deals do not end up in the home run or catastrophic category. They just aren’t important enough to wind up in that pile. Early in training camp, the Texans traded John Metchie to the Philadelphia Eagles for Harrison Bryant. The Texans cut Bryant yesterday and Metchie made the Eagles squad. Yet, that is not the part of the deal that I object to. The Texans kept seven wide receivers (at least initially) and it wasn’t likely that Metchie was going to be one of them.
So, it’s not like we traded away anything terrific. The problem comes in the pick swap. The Texans traded a 2026 fifth round pick to the Eagles in exchange for a 2026 sixth round pick. So, for the privilege of getting a tight end that you just cut, the Texans get to move from the fifth round to the sixth round. At first glance, I am scratching my head. Why not just keep Metchie, cut him at the end of camp, and then keep your fifth rounder?
This is where the capologists enter the conversation. According to Spotrac.com, the Texans saved around 1.1 million dollars by trading Metchie. His total cap hit is 1.8 million and the Texans are responsible for the prorated portion of that. The same site would seem to indicate that they owe nothing to Bryant. So, they traded down one round for the express purpose of saving 1.1 million dollars. I guess that’s not nothing.
It simply raises the question of how valuable that draft capital is. One of the Texans sixth round picks is now the team’s third quarterback. The other is on the injured list. One of the Texans seventh round picks is on the injured list. The other is looking for other employment. Ironically, the Texans haven’t had a fifth round pick since 2023 when they selected Henry To’o’to’o. I would say that pick ended up working out well for them. Maybe I would rather have the fifth rounder than the sixth rounder, but I guess a million dollars isn’t nothing.
