Game notes
- Time and date: Saturday, November 14 at 12:00 p.m. ET
- Network: ESPN
- Location: Gerald J. Ford Stadium — Dallas, TX
- Spread: SMU (-1.5)
- Over/under: 61.5
- All-time series: SMU leads, 3-1
- Last meeting: Wake Forest 13, SMU 12 — October 25, 2025
- Current streak: Wake Forest, 1 (2025)
Setting the scene
This might be the ACC regular season game of the year.
For the first time in College Football Playoff history, the ACC champion is guaranteed an automatic bid. Thus, just getting access to Charlotte keeps the door ajar for Wake Forest and SMU in this high-stakes conference showdown. The Demon Deacons are one of the hottest teams in college football, winning six consecutive games, primarily in blowout fashion. But the Mustangs haven’t ever lost an matchup at Gerald J. Ford Stadium, faring 12-0 in their
previous contests.
A Wake Forest win propels the Demon Deacons to the doorstep of the ACC Championship Game. An SMU win creates chaos, bringing a cluster of 2-loss teams back into championship consideration, including itself.
The ACC races greatly hinges on what unfolds Saturday afternoon on The Hilltop.
Wake Forest Demon Deacons outlook
Wake Forest (8-1, 5-1 ACC) is ranked No. 13 by the College Football Playoff committee, situated as the second-highest ACC team. Since its lone September loss to Miami (FL), the Demon Deacons have been as dominant as anyone in the FBS. During the last five games of its six-game win streak, Wake Forest has defeated opponents by an aggregate score of 264-31, or an average of 53-6 per game.
The Demon Deacons used a dominant defense to stun SMU 13-12 in last year’s meeting in Winston-Salem, but this season, the offense has hit its stride under second-year coordinator Rob Ezell. Wake Forest ranks fourth nationally in scoring (43.3 points per game), ninth in total offense, and 10th in passing.
Starting quarterback Gio Lopez missed last week’s game against FCS Merrimack with a lower body injury, but the absence was permissible due to the level of opponent. The former South Alabama and North Carolina gunslinger has been phenomenal in his new home, delivering 18 touchdowns against one interception this year, ranking 13th nationally in passing average. His mobility has made defenses pay too, accumulating 317 rushing yards and six touchdowns on the season.
Lopez’s top target Carlos Hernandez is receiving national recognition. The senior is sixth in the FBS with an average of 105 receiving yards per game, and he regularly strikes from distance. Hernandez has multiple 70-yard touchdowns this season, and he has four outings with at least 110 yards and an end zone appearance. Jack Foley, Kam Shanks, and Antonio Meeks have provided support in this dynamic aerial attack, and the diversity in options allows Wake Forest to have the nation’s ninth-most efficient third down offense.
The run game has been serviceable, ranking 43rd nationally in yards per game, while producing 4.94 yards per carry. Ty Clark and Deuce Lawrence have split carries throughout the season, totaling 416 and 327 rushing yards, respectively.
Wake Forest’s offensive improvement has somewhat obscured the consistent impact of its defense. The Demon Deacons have only surrendered multiple scores once in their past five games, and they’ve finished 22 consecutive quarters without allowing more than seven points. The result is the country’s 13th-ranked scoring defense and 24th-ranked total defense — a unit which is particularly stingent against the run, surrendering just 85 yards per game on a 2.69 average.
Defensive end Langston Hardy is the leader of the run-stuffing effort. He leads all ACC players with 13.5 tackles for loss, while also producing 44 tackles and 5.5 sacks. Backfield pressure has been a signature of this Wake Forest defense, and two other defensive linemen — Gabe Kirschke and Zach Lohavichan — have at least 7.5 tackles for loss.
Wake Forest’s defense found the sustainable method of success, and that’s getting stops. The Demon Deacons are fifth nationally in both red zone defense and fourth down defense, finding ways to get off the field in critical situations. The unit can become even more dangerous if it dabbles in the turnover game. Wake Forest has forced just seven takeaways all season, which is tied for the eighth-fewest in the FBS.
SMU Mustangs outlook
SMU (7-2, 5-2 ACC) prepares for a revenge game against Wake Forest. Had the Mustangs prevailed last October in Winston-Salem, they would have competed in the ACC Championship Game with a College Football Playoff spot on the line. Instead, they fell in a 13-12 heartbreaker on a last-second field goal — one of the program’s four ACC losses since joining the conference in 2024.
Zero of those losses transpired at Gerald J. Ford Stadium. SMU has been a different beast at home, and that was evident in its most complete game of the season last Friday against Virginia Tech. Counting games against FBS opponents, the Mustangs registered a season-high 23 first half points, utilizing its strongest start of the season to push past the Hokies, 51-28.
The concept of senior day might have lost some luster in the transfer portal era, but Saturday will feature one of the most emotional senior day moments in recent memory. Kevin Jennings is in his fifth year with the program and third as the starting quarterback, and the Dallas area native has poured a lot into the program. Jennings guided the Mustangs to an American Conference title, an ACC Championship Game appearance, a College Football Playoff berth, and a Holiday Bowl victory. Now he’ll play his final game in Dallas, entering the pivotal matchup fifth nationally with 2,764 passing yards and fourth with 25 touchdown passes.
The most remarkable part of Jennings’ eye-popping stats is his efficiency. For a quarterback that slings it deep quite often, the senior boasts a 73.9 completion rate, which is second among all players with at least 100 attempts. Jennings has also limited interceptions this year, finishing four of his last five starts without one.
SMU’s high-powered passing attack involves a slew of receivers. Yamir Knight, coming off a 103-yard, 3-touchdown performance, is the most frequented with a team-high 50 catches. But Yannick Smith, Jalen Cooper, and Jalen Hale are also heavily involved — especially on downfield attempts — and all three average over 15.0 yards per reception this season. Tight ends Randy Pittman Jr. and Theo Melin Öhrström are also regular targets, tied for second on the team with four touchdown receptions apiece.
The Mustangs’ run game is statistically a middle-of-the-road unit, ranked 70th in yards per game and 66th in rushing average. Kendrick Raphael operates as the top option, and he’s scored in seven of nine contests this year. Freshman Christian Rhodes has seen an increasing number of reps since mid-October, and he’s coming off a career-high 92 rushing yards against Virginia Tech.
On defense, SMU displays a similar identity to the previous Mustang defenses of the Rhett Lashlee era: defensive line dominance. The Mustangs are one of 17 programs racking up at least 3.0 sacks per game, and defensive end Marques White is the ringleader of the movement. The eighth-year senior notched his third multi-sack game of the season last week, contributing to the turnover battle with a forced fumble and fumble recovery on the same play.
But unlike the previous two seasons, SMU isn’t collecting turnovers on a consistent basis. The Mustangs have forced just eight turnovers all year, recovering five fumbles and picking off two passes. Despite the lack of takeaways, the secondary has shown considerable improvement from 2025, skyrocketing from 135th to 42nd in passing yards allowed per game, with safeties Jimmy Wyrick and Sael Reyes playing significant roles in that progress.
Prediction
Last year’s matchup between SMU and Wake Forest was the ultimate defensive battle. Just two touchdowns were scored — one on a 14-play drive and another capping a 41-yard series. There were eight combined turnovers in the matchup, which was decided on Connor Calvert’s 50-yard field goal as time expired.
This year’s rematch looks bound to lean more on the higher-scoring end. Wake Forest brings significantly more offensive firepower in this matchup, headlined by the strong connection between Gio Lopez and Carlos Hernandez. The Demon Deacons’ offense has been virtually unstoppable since the start of October, and while SMU should provide some resistance with a formidable defensive line, Wake Forest will still get its points in Dallas.
However, SMU can thrive in a shootout style game. The Mustangs are one of the most explosive offenses in the country, ranking ninth in the FBS with 15 plays spanning 40 yards. Wake Forest has excelled at preventing the big play this year, but the Mustangs’ receiving corps should present challenges on the back end that the Demon Deacons haven’t seen since the Miami (FL) loss.
This back-and-forth thriller will come down to crunch time. With the backing of its home crowd, SMU improves to 13-0 in ACC matchups at Gerald J. Ford Stadium — a result which will add significant chaos to the final two weeks of ACC play.
Prediction: SMU 38, Wake Forest 35
