Last season, I revived the wonderful groug’s Bullpen Trust Power Ranking bit to… mixed results. This year, I thought I’d try something different and simply review it every month. It’s not yet the end of April, but it’s been over a month since the season started, so now is a great time to check in. My one sentence review:
It has been way better than three NRIs in a trench coat.
When the season started, the bullpen seemed like an experiment being conducted by Buster Posey and Zack Minasian to see just
how anonymous they could make the group. The Giants obviously believe that spending lots of money on pitching is one of the deadliest things a team can do and so they look to cut corners there wherever they can. And, perhaps, Buster Posey’s memory of being a player might have him thinking about the “guy off the street” feeling the bullpens had during the championship era and letting that inform his decision-making. I am a big believer in the whole “relievers are fungible” philosophy. It feels like the Giants have taken it to an extreme.
That might have more to do with Posey being a Hall of Fame catcher than a sophomore exec, though, and after hiring a guy with a staff well-versed in coaching up and optimizing pitchers, it all makes a lot of sense. Our general unfamiliarity with it is less important than the results on the field. Which, as you’ll recall, weren’t great in the first week or so.
This morning, Alex Pavlovic pointed out in a post that the Giants’ bullpen looks incredible — a 1.51 ERA! — if you pick things up starting April 7th. That leads the sport. Their 2.73 xERA is 2nd overall and leads the NL, too, in this same span. Of course, overall, the bullpen has been good from an ERA standpoint (2.93 — 3rd in MLB), but this micro-split, timed with the Giants turning things around overall (10-7 from April 7th on), feels appropriate.
We’re in the small sample size fun zone of the early season for sure, but the improvised, figure it out as they go bullpen is being figured out before our very eyes. One important-ish stat I talked about two and a half weeks ago was the average fastball velocity, which at the time — in, again, what was a very small sample — was 10th in MLB at 94.7 mph. But with lots more Erik Miller, Keaton Winn, Caleb Kilian, and now Blade Tidwell contributing to the sample, they’ve sped up to 4th overall in MLB (95.7 mph) which is a big part of why the team is #7 in MLB in bullpen strikeout rate (24.8%). This is the really good stuff.
Where the bullpen remains troubling is in the other two outcomes: an 11.9% walk rate that’s 23rd in MLB. They’re hanging around middle of the pack when it comes to home runs on flyballs, too. These are all “for the season” results, so let’s hop back to that “since April 7th” cutoff that Pavlovic provided this morning.
Individually, while there’s a lot of JT Brubaker in the sample, his lesser stuff is balanced out by a bracing shot of Blade Tidwell, who probably didn’t think he would be destined for a bullpen role when the Giants traded for him, but he’s been really effective there. Another see-saw of talent is groundball rates. Keaton Winn and Matt Gage are closer to 40%, and along with JT Brubaker this trio represents the flyball sector of the bullpen. Brubaker is skating by on cunning and guile in that regard, but Gage’s 92.5 mph average velocity and 6.13 FIP on a .188 BAbip are yellowish-red flags for that pair. Meanwhile, Keaton Winn’s 1.23 FIP is the other side of those concerns. He’s just been that good. Even Ryan Borucki has been solid (1.93 ERA in last 5 appearances) and Ryan Walker has been good — nowhere close to the half-season disaster of 2025.
Another “since April 7th” stat: every reliever has helped the Giants win. They all have positive Win Probability Added. Click the link and check it out right now! We might never see that again. Sure, it might seem like cheating to toss out a handful of games to make the picture look better, but it’s such a stark difference and the eye test from this recent run of games only supports it that I declare it’s not bad or illogical to do that. The Giants left Arizona knowing they had to figure some things out.
So, the great bullpen experiment of 2026 has worked out positively so far, perhaps even sooner than expected. It’s a bullpen that features different looks. Not just from arm angles, but also velocity and general stuff. It’s funky and it’s working well.
