Game notes
- Time and date: Friday, August 29 at 7:00 p.m. ET
- Network: FS1
- Location: Spartan Stadium — East Lansing, MI
- Spread: Michigan State (-20.5)
- Over/under: 49.5
- All-time series: Michigan State leads, 15-2
- Last meeting: Michigan State 35, Western Michigan 13 — September 2, 2022
- Current streak: Michigan State, 12 (1921-2022)
Setting the scene
It’s an annual tradition in East Lansing for Spartan Stadium to open its gates on the Friday of Labor Day Weekend. Every single season since 2011, with the exception of 2017 and the 2020 COVID season, Michigan State has hosted a Friday night showdown in front of a crowd decked in green.
It’s a popular tradition among Spartan faithful, as Michigan State is 12-0 in Friday night home openers over that timeframe. Western Michigan is a frequent Friday night visitor, serving as the Spartans’ first opponent
in 2013, 2015, and 2022. However, the Broncos never return to Kalamazoo quite satisfied as their last victory over the in-state Big Ten foe transpired over a century ago in 1921.
Western Michigan was excruciatingly close to a Week 1 Big Ten win last fall. The Broncos look to finally break through against a Michigan State team trying to right the ship after three-straight losing seasons.
Western Michigan Broncos outlook
It’s already the ninth year of the post-P.J. Fleck era in Kalamazoo. Western Michigan remains in search of its first MAC Championship Game appearance or victory over a Big Ten opponent since that magical run. The Broncos certainly made progress under head coach Lance Taylor in 2024, producing five conference wins for the first time since 2019 and returning to bowl eligibility after a brief hiatus.
Western Michigan needs to take that next step. That is always possible when you have one of the brightest stars in the MAC, and the Broncos showcase Jalen Buckley. The 2023 MAC Freshman of the Year already has a 1,000-yard season under his belt, as well as a 683-yard campaign in 2024 when he missed all of September due to injury and split carries with fellow star Jaden Nixon.
It’s Buckley’s backfield now, and the fourth-year Bronco will see an especially large role due to the absence of Michigan transfer Cole Cabana, who suffered an injury in fall camp. Western Michigan ranked 37th in the FBS in rushing and 109th in passing last year, so maneuvering the offense through Buckley and the ground game likely remains the preferred style in 2025, especially given an uncertain quarterback situation.
Head coach Lance Taylor has already committed to playing two quarterbacks Friday night — Broc Lowry and Brady Jones. Lowry operated as QB2 in 2024 behind Hayden Wolff, but he only threw eight passes. However, he entered games quite frequently for run-oriented packages and ranked fourth on the team with 133 rushing yards, complemented by three touchdowns. Jones arrives from Riverside Community College in California where he threw for an astronomical 4,456 yards and 44 touchdowns in 2024. Thus, expect a change in styles when the more mobile Lowry enters, compared to the gunslinging Jones.
Western Michigan brought in 33 new transfers, and a horde of them should see instant playing time at wide receiver. Christian Leary was arguably the Broncos’ most established haul. The former Georgia Tech receiver totaled 309 yards in 2023, notably scoring a last-second game-winning touchdown in the infamous finish when Miami (FL) spurned victory formation. In addition to Leary, Georgia State transfer Tailique Williams arrives with 1,009 career receiving yards, and Baylin Brooks enters from San Diego State. There’s returning talent in the room as well, including Malique Dieudonne and Mackey Award preseason watchlist tight end Blake Bosma — who generated a team-high six receiving touchdowns in 2024.
John Hofer is the lone returning starter on an offensive line which must replace consensus All-American guard Addison West, and the Broncos will restock that group primarily with transfers.
The transfer influence likely won’t be as strong in the defensive starting lineup. The Broncos return familiar defensive linemen in Tyson Lee and Popeye Williams, hoping to improve upon the team’s 113th-ranked run defense from a year ago. Houston transfer Nadame Tucker joins the group as a potential day one starter, as the Broncos look for external solutions to their pass rush which produced 1.46 sacks per game (tied for 15th-worst in FBS).
On the back end, Western Michigan retained a Second Team All-MAC selection in Tate Hallock, who has a claim to being the conference’s top defensive back in 2025. The 2024 version of Hallock totaled 84 tackles, five tackles for loss, and returned four interceptions for 87 yards. Even though he was the only Bronco with multiple picks in 2024, Western Michigan had no issues forcing frequent turnovers, finishing top five in the country in fumble recoveries.
The other impressive statistic the Broncos look to maintain this year — especially in a Week 1 road environment — is their lack of infractions. Western Michigan ranked eighth nationally in fewest penalties per game with just a hair over four, and creating that advantage is essential in the quest to take down Michigan State for the first time in 104 years.
Michigan State Spartans outlook
Michigan State rattled off three-consecutive losing seasons for the first time since 2004-06. But hope resides in East Lansing as the fanbase places its faith in Jonathan Smith, who turned his alma mater Oregon State from a doormat into a perennial winner, peaking at 10-3 and No. 17 in the country to conclude 2022.
While defense was far from perfect, the Spartans’ greatest heel in Smith’s first year was certainly the offense. Michigan State ranked 123rd nationally with 19.3 points per game and only reached the 20-point threshold in a third of their contests. That’s all it took for Michigan State to win games, as it finished 4-0 when managing 20 points and 1-7 otherwise.
The Spartans continue to utilize Aidan Chiles at quarterback. The second-year starter hopes his the experienced accrued in 2024 contributes to a meteoric rise in 2025. He is coming off a season featuring 2,415 passing yards on a 59.4 completion percentage, balancing 13 touchdowns to 11 interceptions. Outside of accuracy, another area where Chiles looks to flourish is mobility after generating 225 rushing yards on a 2.3 average in 2024.
Chiles can greatly benefit from a refurbished offensive line after ranking in the bottom 20 of the FBS by allowing 3.0 sacks per game. The Spartans retain two starters — left tackle Stanton Ramil and right tackle Ashton Lepo, but they bring in a heap of transfers with vast starting experience gunning for starting jobs. That includes full-time FCS starters Caleb Carter and Connor Moore, as well as Wake Forest center/guard and newly-appointed team captain Matt Gulbin.
The skill position talent also receives an overhaul from the portal. Not a single running back that produced more than 21 rushing yards in 2024 returns, making FCS Sacramento State transfer Elijah Tau-Tolliver the most seasoned option. Tau-Tolliver averaged 86.4 rushing yards per game, shining as a versatile talent in the receiving and returning facets for one of the FCS’s top programs. Makhi Frazier and Brandon Tullis are true sophomores than should step into exponentially expanded roles as well.
At receiver, the group takes on a new degree of speed with the additions of Omari Kelly (Middle Tennessee), Chrishon McCray (Kent State), and Evan Boyd (Central Michigan). Kelly earned First Team All-CUSA honors for 869 receiving yards on a 16.4 average as a playmaking threat at Middle Tennessee, while McCray appeared on consecutive All-MAC teams with three 160+ yard, 2+ touchdown explosive performances since 2023. The group should be significantly deeper in 2025 as Nick Marsh returns to the fold after logging a team-high 649 yards, and the reliable 6’5”, 245 pound Jack Velling can present a matchup issue as a veteran tight end.
Defensively, Michigan State returns four primary starters from a year ago — Jalen Thompson and Alex VanSumeren on the defensive line and safeties Nikai Martinez and Malik Spencer. Michigan State didn’t produce any offensive or defensive Big Ten selections in 2024, but Martinez is a candidate to crash that party as the team’s returning tackles and interceptions leader. The secondary led by Martinez and Spencer was solid, and they’ll receive support from new faces such as Texas State cornerback Joshua Eaton and UConn cornerback Malcolm Bell.
The Spartans also stifled the run quite well, limiting opponents to 125 rushing yards per contest on a 3.7 average. However, they lose their most impactful players in that department in linebackers Cal Haladay and Jordan Turner, so incumbent backups such as Jordan Hall and Wayne Matthews must pick up where their apprentices left off.
Michigan State’s defense recorded stops last year, but it lacked the spectacular game-changing plays. The Spartans averaged just 1.58 sacks per game (tied for 104th in FBS) and managed 11 takeaways (tied for 118th in FBS). Landing only two fumble recoveries in an entire season, second-year defensive coordinator Joe Rossi must emphasize an added level of aggression to turn this unit from solid to lethal.
Prediction
Michigan State always wins these Friday night Week 1 kickoffs, but the Spartans emerge in lower-scoring, ugly rock fights more than they do in dominant fashion. Just ask Florida Atlantic about last year’s 16-10 bout or Central Michigan, which trailed 10-7 at halftime in the 2023 opener.
This Western Michigan game likely plays out similar to those prior Spartan outings. Although the offensive portal upgrades are undeniable, the strength of Michigan State’s team likely lies within its defense. Michigan State produced a top 35 total defense in 2024 only to be overshadowed by the team’s offensive shortcomings. Western Michigan is a more offensive-oriented team with Jalen Buckley leading the charge, but an ongoing quarterback battle may be difficult to implement against this Spartan defense. Thus, Michigan State emerges in a game that features fewer than 50 points.
Prediction: Michigan State 30, Western Michigan 14
