The Chiefs’ third-place 2026 schedule isn’t all it was cracked up to be

In addition to the ninth overall pick of April’s NFL Draft, the Kansas City Chiefs were set to get another benefit of their 6-11 finish: the elusive third-place schedule that is often perceived to be a significant advantage in the following season.

But that doesn’t always turn out exactly like we expect.

A year ago, the Chiefs ended up with the AFC’s No. 1 seed after turning in a 15-2 season that set a new franchise record. Based on the previous year’s regular-season records, Kansas City ended up with the 11th-hardest

2025 schedule, which included games against 10 2024 playoff teams.

But after recording a 6-11 record this season — and completely missing the playoffs — the Chiefs will face the fifth-hardest NFL schedule in 2026, facing nine 2025 playoff teams.

2026 Opponent Difficulty

Rnk	Grd	Team	W	L	T	Pct
1	B	Bears	158	129	2	0.5502
2	B-	Dolphins	156	132	1	0.5415
3	B-	Packers	155	133	1	0.5381
4	B-	Cardinals	155	133	1	0.5381
5	B-	Chiefs	155	134	0	0.5363
6	C+	Patriots	153	135	1	0.5311
7	C+	Raiders	153	136	0	0.5294
8	C+	Bills	152	136	1	0.5277
9	C+	Chargers	151	138	0	0.5225
10	C+	Panthers	150	138	1	0.5208
11	C+	Vikings	149	138	2	0.5190
12	C+	Jets	149	139	1	0.5173
13	C+	Rams	148	139	2	0.5156
14	C+	Seahawks	148	140	1	0.5138
15	C+	Broncos	148	141	0	0.5121
16	C	Commanders	144	143	2	0.5017
17	C	Giants	143	144	2	0.4983
18	C	49ers	143	145	1	0.4965
19	C	Steelers	143	146	0	0.4948
20	C	Cowboys	142	146	1	0.4931
21	C	Buccaneers	141	146	2	0.4913
22	C	Jaguars	141	147	1	0.4896
23	C-	Eagles	138	149	2	0.4810
24	C-	Ravens	138	150	1	0.4792
25	C-	Titans	137	151	1	0.4758
26	C-	Texans	136	151	2	0.4740
27	D+	Lions	134	153	2	0.4671
28	D+	Colts	134	154	1	0.4654
29	D+	Falcons	134	154	1	0.4654
30	D	Bengals	130	159	0	0.4498
31	F+	Saints	125	163	1	0.4343
32	F+	Browns	124	165	0	0.4291

How could this happen? Several factors are at play.

• Just three of an NFL team’s 17 games are matchups between squads that finished in the same place within their own divisions. So just 18% of each team’s schedule has anything to do with its record in the previous season.
• Six of the remaining 14 games are fixed every year — a home and away game with each team’s three division rivals. In 2025, the AFC West put two teams into the playoffs.
• The final eight games are played against AFC and NFC divisions that rotate every year. In 2026, the Chiefs will play the AFC East — another division that put two teams into the postseason — and the NFC West, which had three of its teams make the playoffs.

So much for the third-place schedule.

There’s one other thing to note. What if we convert each team’s opponent record — the last column in the table — from a four-digit fraction to a letter grade that represents standard deviations from average? These are shown in the second column, serving the same purpose here that they do in school: providing an easy-to-understand quantitative analysis of the data. Scores with the same, adjacent or near-adjacent grades are measurably different, but not significantly different from each other. In other words, the B- grades (ranked second through fifth) aren’t really that much different from the C+ and C grades — but are significantly different from the C- grades that are ranked 23rd to 26th.

Does this mean we’ll stop making this comparison every season? No… not at all. There are still differences to be explored — especially when the Chiefs are near the top, while rivals like the Eagles are much closer to the bottom. But what the letter grades show us is that generally, the differences in schedule strength tend to be pretty minor.