With five weeks left in the regular season, Arizona is very much alive for both a spot in the Big 12 championship game and the College Football Playoff. But both of those opportunities hinge on what happens on Saturday morning in west Texas.
The 22nd-ranked Wildcats (6-1, 3-1 Big 12) visit No. 13 Texas Tech (6-1, 3-1) in a game that will serve as a pseudo elimination game for each squad. With the conference not assured of getting more than one playoff bid, any losses from here on out can be disqualifiers.
Arizona is riding a 5-game win streak, the second year in a row that has happened. Texas Tech is coming off its first loss, a 37-24 defeat on the road to a Cincinnati team the UA beat by 27 earlier this month, but has won 12 in a row at Galaxy Stadium and can tie the longest home win streak in school history.
Throw in offensive coordinator Seth Doege returning to his alma mater, where he started for two seasons and still has family in the area, and there’s a lot going on.
The UA is 5-27-2 all-time against Tech, an old rival from the Border Conference days. It hasn’t played in Lubbock since 1989 and hasn’t won there since 1935, a 7-6 victory.
The Wildcats are a small underdog, the first time they haven’t been favored since Week 2 when they were dogs at BYU and lost. Here’s what to watch for when the UA and Texas Tech meet:
Lineup comings and goings
Arizona has played the last 2-plus games without its starting receiving corps, yet Noah Fifita has still managed to have back-to-back 300-yard games. And now he could get back two of his top weapons, as Chris Hunter and Giovanni Richardson are both listed as probable for this game.
Richardson had 14 catches for 141 yards in the first six quarters of the season before getting hurt at BYU, then after returning caught two passes on the first drive against Cincinnati before coming out. That same game saw Hunter, who has 13 catches for 155 yards and a TD, and Tre Spivey (22 catches, 314 yards, four TDs) also get hurt, with Spivey done for the season.
Their absences opened the door for other UA receivers to get their shot, and several have capitalized. Isaiah Mizell has back-to-back 100-yard receiving games and emerged as both the top deep threat and possession target, while Brandon Phelps has 11 catches and two TDs in the past three games and freshmen RJ Mosley and Caleb Smith have also stepped up.
More offensive weapons can never hurt, especially in a game that could require Arizona to score often since it will be down its top cover corner. Jay’Vion Cole got hurt in the first half last week against Iowa State, returned to the field with a boot on his foot and is out for at least this game. Tyrese Boss, who has started the last five games, will slide over to Cole’s side while Dwight Bootle II likely starts opposite him.
Boss has steadily gotten better each game, bouncing back from allowing a 52-yard TD pass in the first quarter of his first start to only 10 receptions with no scores since.
A second QB to worry about
Texas Tech’s quest to upgrade at the quarterback position was one of the biggest storylines of the offseason, with the signing of Cincinnati’s Brendan Sorsby backfiring when his gambling on college sports came to light. That left Will Hammond, who started two games last season, as the default option.
Hammond has been okay at best, completing 67.8 percent of his passes for 1,581 yards but only six touchdowns against six interceptions. That’s contributed to Tech struggling in the red zone, where the lack of passing efficiency has resulted in only 15 TDs in 29 trips compared to 20 in 27 for Arizona.
But the Red Raiders are likely to go to the bench when closer to the end zone, bringing in ex-UCF/Florida State/Boston College QB Thomas Castellanos to take advantage of his running ability. A 5-for-5 addition, who has appeared in five games while going in and out of eligibility limbo, he has throw two TD passes and run for two in 41 offensive snaps.
“I know he’s twitchy as hell,” UA defensive coordinator Danny Gonzales said of Castellanos, who has 26 career rushing TDs. “I know he creates a lot of problems in the plus-one run game. I think all coaches want what gives their team the best chance to be successful in the win, so damn right we’re gonna see him. So it’ll be a great challenge if he’s on the field. We just got to make sure those guys up in the box tell me if it’s 4 or 15, who’s in the game, and we’ll have a plan for both of them.”
Trench warfare
Outside of the West Virginia game, Arizona has been very strong defending the run. Last week the Wildcats snapped Iowa State’s FBS-best streak of 24 straight games with at least 100 rushing yards and in the process stifled Big 12 second-leading rusher Aidan Flora.
For the season the UA ranks 25th in run defense, allowing 107.1 yards per game, and the 3.13 yards per carry is 19th nationally.
Texas Tech, which averages 189.7 rushing yards per contest, is likely to get back standout back Cameron Dickey. Dickey, who ran for 1,124 yards and 14 TDs last season and had four scores this season, has missed the last three games with an ankle injury. His return will give the Red Raiders three potent ball carriers in addition to Castellanos.
J’Koby Williams has 619 yards and averages 7.2 yards per carry, with eight runs of at least 20 yards, while Quinten Joyner has also run for three scores. Tech gains nearly five yards per carry, including sack yardage.
Tech’s run defense is also stout, allowing 106.7 yards per game, but Cincinnati ran for 255 yards on 6.38 per carry. Arizona held the Bearcats to a season-low 74 yards and 2.64 per carry.
“I don’t take anything away from Cincinnati,” Doege said. “Cincinnati played well, but I know we’ll probably get, we’re going to get the Texas Tech defense that hasn’t let anybody (else) score (more than) 26 points.”
Fifita’s Heisman moment?
Currently ranked 9th in the Heisman fan vote, Arizona’s career leader in every passing category gets a national stage to show he’s worthy of more attention. He’ll be doing it against one of the best teams in the country at picking off passes and arguably the top interior defender in the Big 12.
Tech has recorded 13 interceptions, second-most in FBS, and returned five of those for touchdowns. Four of those pick-sixes have come from linebackers. But it has also given up 16 TD passes, 11 in four Big 12 games.
“That’s one of those things where you hope that the experience of Noah Fifita and the battles that he’s been in over time, that those reps help him make great decisions with the football,” UA coach Brent Brennan said. “We’ve played against lots of really good defenses, and I do think this—besides BYU—I think this is the best defense we played all year. Knowing that, can we find a way to effectively run the football? And then also does that open up opportunities for Noah to distribute the ball to more people across the field? When he’s doing that, then I believe we’re really doing a nice job of you know being effective in moving the football.”
Fifita has four interceptions in 225 attempts with 2,082 yards and 18 TDs, completing 74.2 percent of his passes. He’s also been sacked 18 times, second-most of any Big 12 passer, and his offensive line faces a huge test from Tech’s D-line.
AJ Holmes Jr. leads the conference with 6.5 sacks, the 6-foot-3, 300-pound defensive lineman credited with 32 pressures for the season. His 90.7 pass rush grade, per Pro Football Focus, is fifth-best in the country.
“He’s a monster,” Doege said. “He’s an incredible player, and there’s a reason why he’s leading the Big 12 in sacks. But I also believe in our guys, and I know our guys are are excited about the challenge and something that they’re looking forward to trying to. You got to know where he is on the field, and some of our scheme has to be built around him just to give us an advantage at times. He’s probably one of the most impactful players on the field, and so we got to know where he is.”
This will be Fifita’s 17th career game against a ranked opponent. In the previous 16 he has thrown for 3,993 yards and 29 TDs but also 14 interceptions, completing 66 percent of his passes.
