Ho hum. So much for reaching the playoffs with any kind of momentum. The best pitcher has an injury that is still being evaluated. The closer looked decent enough in facing a couple of live hitters for the first time in weeks. The third starter just allowed eight earned runs in a start. The best hitter is maybe going to play tomorrow for the first time in weeks but can’t play the field yet. The second best hitter is battling a terrible slump since the break, but at least showed glimpses a few times
per week. It’s not polished. It’s not healthy. It’s not even playing really tight ball.
There are stories of teams that slide into the end of the season, then get hot in the playoffs and make a run. There is no one formula on how you play early, late or even the middle. To my eye, the Cubs will be two players short of their best 26. We knew one of those months ago when Justin Steele was injured. Miguel Amaya had a great start to the season but hasn’t meaningfully contributed since May. The Cubs will field a 26 that when healthy and productive are plenty adequate to win a playoff series.
We’re seeing very few signs that we are heading for that ending. For a team that I’ve enjoyed so much, and believed could do damage, I’ve lowered my expectations. It’s not even an expectation. One win and don’t be embarrassing. That’s my new definition of a successful postseason series.
Waves of talent and every other buzz word that has followed this franchise. The sum total was three of the best years in Cub history, one World Series win and then eight years without a single playoff win. Will it reach nine? The next wave of talent is so impressive that even though three of them have cameoed this season, none of them has been worthy of even semi-regular playing time. Will Owen Caissie, Kevin Alcáantara and Moisés Ballesteros become stars in the league? Maybe. But the collective management of this team hasn’t felt wowed enough by the lot of them to give any of them regular playing time.
There is no pitcher in the next group. I’d love to be wrong, but the next new face from the system appears to not arrive until 2027. At least for anything more than a cameo. Kyle Tucker surely walks and then this team will maybe be good enough to hang out in the 83-win morass where they were the last two years and where this year’s Mets, Reds and Diamondbacks are hanging out. It’s a viable path to the postseason and maybe you can get hot then.
Every team in the division appears to have more young pitching than the Cubs. The game is increasingly dominated by young, max effort pitchers. The Cubs get a ton of mileage out of good to very good pitchers and elite defense. That’ll keep the team competitive for years. But this team’s arrow is pointing firmly sideways. The last two years this team won 83 games. This team is going to win seven or eight more. When Tucker was healthy and productive, four or five other guys were playing above what appears to be their current talent level. How much of that can fairly be attribute to Tucker? I’m not smart enough to know. But my eyes say, a whole lot.
Beyond that, my last big picture thought is that Shōta Imanaga is a terrible fit for this team right now. With this team defense, keep the ball in the park, preferably on the ground. I’d love to have 2016 Arrieta, Lester and Hendricks throwing with this defense behind them. No offense to Javy, Rizzo and the boys on that team, but this defense is better. You probably nod to Rizzo at first, but not by a huge margin and definitely Heyward in right. No one around here is going to carry water for the shortstop argument and as much as I love Javy, Hoerner is really darn good out there.
Heavy sigh. I’m sure the Cardinals won’t treat every game this weekend like it was the World Series or anything.
Pitch Counts:
- Mets: 143, 35 BF
- Cubs: 137, 38 BF
Both teams a little into the yellow zone, but nothing egregious. The Mets throw 15.88 pitches per inning and the Cubs 15.22. Another one of those games where the Cubs got in trouble really fast and the Mets had great sequencing. Although it is a little harder to look at sequencing as an issue one the other team scores in four different innings and posts three crooked numbers. Just not good enough.
It’s a shame, five should be good enough. But it just wasn’t. Three Cub relievers, none threw more than 23 pitches. Last weekend of the season and then a day off. I imagine most guys are going to look for one more outing this weekend. Two for a number of the relievers. There should be more than enough innings to cover the weekend barring an injury to a starter.
Three Stars:
- Seiya Suzuki was the only Cub with two hits, they were both homers and he drove in four of the five runs.
- Dansby Swanson was the only other Cub to reach twice. He had a homer for the other RBI.
- Drew Pomeranz retired all for batters he faced, striking out two.
Game 159, September 25: Mets 8, Cubs 5 (89-70)
Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.
THREE HEROES:
- Superhero: Seiya Suzuki (.063). 2-4, 2 HR, 4 RBI, 2 R
- Hero: Drew Pomeranz (.023). 1.1 IP, 4 BF, 2 K
- Sidekick: Michael Soroka (.014). IP, 3 BF, K
THREE GOATS:
- Billy Goat: Shōta Imanaga (-.341). 5.2 IP, 26 BF, 9 H, BB, 8 ER, 3 K (L 9-8)
- Goat: Matt Shaw (-.074). 0-3
- Kid: Michael Busch (-.058). 0-3
WPA Play of the Game: Brett Baty’s three-run homer in the fourth made it 6-0 and effectively put this one out of reach. (.109)
*Cubs Play of the Game: Seiya Suzuki’s three-run homer in the sixth cut the lead to three and made the last few innings watchable. (.070)
Cubs Player of the Game:
Yesterday’s Winner: Matthew Boyd (67) over Matt Shaw (52) and Michael Busch (42). 178 votes total.
Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)
The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.
- Kyle Tucker +29
- Jameson Taillon +22
- Matthew Boyd +20
- Cade Horton +18
- Michael Busch +17.17
- Julian Merryweather -15
- Ben Brown -19
- Dansby Swanson -22.33
- Carson Kelly/Seiya Suzuki -26
Scoreboard Watching: The Cubs have clinched a berth in the 2025 postseason. We will no longer actively monitor any of the teams who can no longer catch the Cubs. The only other team that matters in any way at this point is the Padres. Padres (WC 2) off (Cubs up 2). The Cubs magic number relative to the Padres is 2. The Cubs can still clinch by winning two of their last three and any losses by the Padres nudge that forward too.
Up Next: The Cardinals were eliminated officially Wednesday night. They come to town at 78-81 and were off Thursday. So they should be plenty well rested to whatever extent they want to play spoiler. The Cubs haven’t announced a starter, but this is Colin Rea’s spot. Rea is 10-7 with a 4.10 ERA in 153.2 innings. Two starts against the Cardinals, 12.2 innings and only two runs.
The Cardinals start our old pal Miles Mikolas (8-10, 4.76, 151.1). This will be the first time since 2021 that Miles hasn’t qualified for the ERA title. But it’s his second straight year of basically not being good. He’s 2-1 with a 4.01 over his last seven, so he’s finishing strong. The Cubs hung eight on him on July 4 at Wrigley. That included six homers. That was back when it looked like the Cubs would have at least two 40 homer guys and a host of 30 homer guys. The Cubs homered eight times that day. PCA had two of those, but only six in the 71 games since. Rea started that game.
I can’t imagine any reason other than focus on one game at a time that you wouldn’t announce Rea to start in this matchup. Win this game.
