Are you a free-agent pitcher who has a four-seam fastball in the 93rd percentile for velocity and the 83rd percentile for extension? Well, then, the Astros might have interest in you. They probably had
interest in Nate Pearson for those very reasons.
A former first-round pick in 2017 and top prospect of the Blue Jays, and recently released by the Cubs last month, the 29-year-old right-hander is likely hoping that the Astros’ pitching lab can help revitalize his career. He made a good choice, considering the track record of pitchers who have improved once Houston was able to work with them. If Pearson excels, or even becomes a productive member of the pitching staff, it’ll be another win for one of the best pitching development staffs in baseball.
Of course, that is easier said than done. There isn’t a guarantee with any arms. But Pearson offers something the Astros desperately need: pitching depth with upside, all on a cheap contract. We can quibble about some of Dana Brown’s roster decisions, but he and his front office have generally found success with pitching reclamation projects. The bullpen, for example, features multiple arms that Brown acquired with minor, if any, fanfare. That is, other than Josh Hader. I am talking about Bennett Sousa, Kaleb Ort, and Enyel De Los Santos. Brandon Walter looked like a good find for the rotation before his Tommy John surgery. Pearson stands to be the next pitcher in line for a Houston-style makeover.
What will that makeover entail? From the outside looking in, I think they should first adjust where he throws his four-seam fastball, if they don’t decide to shelve it. I mean, it was catching way too much of the middle of the zone, albeit in a small sample in major league action last year. But it wasn’t much better in 2024 with the Blue Jays and Cubs, when he threw 486 four-seamers compared to 146 in 2025.
With an average four-seam velocity of around 97 to 98 mph as primarily a reliever, along with already impressive extension, you can already envision the Astros tinkering with his release points and arm angle to maximize it. We might see his inverted vertical break (iVB) increase from its 16.4” average in 2025. I also wonder if we’ll see them emphasize him elevating the pitch more. It seems like a prime candidate for such a change.
Other than his four-seam fastball, Pearson also primarily throws a slider with some glove-side break, but it doesn’t stand out with tons of movement. Stuff+, though, has generally liked it, grading out as above average for his career, and it was a net positive pitch for him in 2024 (+4 run value). He also occasionally mixes in a curveball and sinker, but those are much less frequent. But the curveball, albeit in limited fashion, has historically graded out the best according to Stuff+ (133 in 2024, 124 in 2025). The sinker also grades out well with a 113 Stuff+ grade. It is his four-seam that has held him back, though, with opposing hitters slugging above .500 in 2024 and 2025 when in the majors, for a combined negative-8 run value. Again, look at the location; it isn’t difficult to see why opposing hitters were hitting the equivalent of a top-twenty hitter against his four-seam.
Pearson’s minor league numbers are more optimistic (2.22 ERA, 3.05 FIP in 44 2/3 innings in 2025), although warning flags are around. While he has maintained a strikeout rate of 30% or higher dating back to 2022 in minor league action, his walk rate has never dipped below 12.9%. To that point, however, his walk rate was around 7.4% in 66 1/3 innings in 2024. With the Astros planning on having Pearson start, though, they will need his walk issue to be resolved for the most part. Only two qualified starters — Gavin Williams and José Soriano — posted a walk rate higher than 10%. But it is worth noting that Pearson has predominantly pitched out of relief since 2021, so perhaps a role change, along with some adjustments to his pitches, makes that concern more of a moot point.
Overall, I feel like this signing is the type of move that the Astros should pursue in the offseason. While Pearson has plenty to prove, and there is a real chance that this doesn’t work out, this pitching staff needs to find creative ways to absorb some innings. Preferably a starter, to be clear, but even if he ultimately lands back in a relief role, it wouldn’t be the worst possible outcome.
