The Nats made a major move last night that will have some serious ripple effects. I wanted to take a look at three big things to come out of the Connelly Early trade. We will look at what it means for the likes of Foster Griffin, Brady House and of course Early himself.
First, I want to talk about what it means for the man actually getting traded. For Connelly Early, he will now be a staple in the Nats rotation. That was probably going to be the case in Boston, but it was becoming less certain. With
Payton Tolle, Ranger Suarez, Jake Bennett and the injured Garrett Crochet, the Red Sox rotation was very left-handed.
There was a chance that Early could have been lost in the shuffle. However, he will be allowed to shine in DC. He will be able to attack with his deep mix of pitches with no fear. Early won’t be a free agent until 2032, so he will be with the Nats for the long haul.
Paul Toboni is clearly a believer in Early, having drafted him back in 2023 and now trading for him. There is a good reason for this as well. Despite being drafted in the fifth round, Early raced through the minor leagues, only throwing 206 innings before reaching the bigs. He is such a polished and refined arm who should be a quality starter for a long time.
We also saw last year that Early is not afraid of the moment. He made a playoff start last year in a winner take all game. While the Red Sox did not win that game, Early pitched well, and got quite unfortunate in that outing, with his defense letting him down.
However, I want to talk about what this means for some other guys. One player this is very important for is Brady House, who will be replacing Curtis Mead at third base. House came into the season as the starting third baseman, but got his job taken by Mead. While House did make some strides offensively, he still had his flaws and the defense regressed.
Since being sent down, House has performed well, hitting over .300 with an .842 OPS. He continued his dominance against left handed pitching and is actually making more contact. House’s 23.9% K rate in AAA is lower than what it was last year when he struck out 26.5% of the time. His profile in AAA is very Brady House like, but that average zone contact rate is something that could elevate the profile.
House only turned 23 last month, but his future is still up in the air. He will need to prove he is good enough to lock down that starting third base role and will have a golden opportunity to do that. This is such a huge moment in House’s career and hopefully he can take advantage of it.
Throughout House’s career, he has constantly improved, albeit at a pretty slow, methodical pace. Every year House gets a little bit better, but still has the same issues in his profile. I think House has the potential to be an everyday player, but he will have to prove himself.
Lastly, I think this move impacts Foster Griffin. In my opinion, a trade is more likely now. While Early is hurt right now, he will be back this season. On paper, Early can slide into Griffin’s spot in the rotation. Early may not be Griffin caliber right now, but he is a similar profile and has that sort of upside. He can be a Foster Griffin caliber arm who is controllable for the next half decade.
That is not to say Griffin will not be missed. The lefty has been an absolute horse for this team. Foster Griffin starts have become close to a scheduled win for the Nats. The team is 17-4 when he starts, which is just bonkers. Blake Butera has a ton of trust in him, regularly pushing him very deep into ballgames. Early is talented, but he is not quite there yet.
However, Early can do a decent enough Griffin impression. He gets pretty deep into games for a young pitcher, averaging 5.39 innings per start, which is higher than Cade Cavalli. With Early sliding into the Griffin spot, it eases the blow of losing Foster. That makes it easier for Toboni to get all the assets he can for Griffin, who is a free agent after the season.
I think this deal is a good indication of what the Nats will do at the deadline. They will sell pieces, but they are still on the prowl for pitching. The likes of Griffin and Garcia could be traded, but I think we will see more arms come through the door. A reliever or two coming to DC feels likely at this point.
This only adds to my intrigue for the deadline. It will be different from previous deadlines because the Nats are threading a needle here. They are simultaneously looking to add for the future while staying relatively competitive in the present. This Mead for Early trade is the perfect example of this idea.
